Phoenix 2 (ISM Raceway) Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions

And the plot thickens. My Pre-Practice Fantasy NASCAR Projections for Phoenix mentioned Kevin Harvick being locked into the final Playoff Race at Homestead, but that all changed on Wednesday when it was announced that the #4 team was handed a L1 penalty for a spoiler violation at Texas last weekend. Now he’s just three points above the cut line, but the good news is we’re at a track that Harvick has absolutely dominated over the last five years. He’s also on the pole for Sunday’s Can-Am 500(k). If you remember back to the March race here at Phoenix, Harvick was in a somewhat similar situation, where he came into it with his Las Vegas race-winning car was deemed illegal due to a problem with the rear window. He responded with another win and pounding the rear window during his victory celebration. Will we see Harvick hit the spoiler of his car here at Phoenix on Sunday? He’s a nine-time winner at this race track, I certainly wouldn’t count him out.

We had another “normal” schedule this weekend, with a practice session and qualifying on Friday, followed by two more practice sessions on Saturday. As mentioned before, Kevin Harvick won the pole for the Can-Am 500(k) and the full starting lineup for Sunday’s race can be found by clicking here. As far as the two post-qualifying practice sessions, you can find those speeds here: Practice #2 Speeds – Happy Hour Speeds. I’d also recommend reading our in-depth notes for each session: Practice #2 Notes – Happy Hour Notes.

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Final Top 25 Rankings for Phoenix 2

1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 1st – DraftKings Price: $12,300 – FanDuel Price: $14,500
**Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**

We’re down to just two races left in the Fantasy NASCAR season, so now is the time to make your “Hail Mary” plays. And going against Kevin Harvick at Phoenix would definitely be a “Hail Mary.” This guy has been absolutely unstoppable at this track, racking up nine total victories in 31 career starts. Additionally, Harvick hasn’t finished worse than 6th here since the 2013 season, and he has just two finishes worse than 6th in the last 16 (yes, SIXTEEN) races here. This weekend, Harvick is not only racing for his rightful spot at Homestead, but he’s also racing for pride after being busted at Texas last weekend. He’s starting on the pole for Sunday’s Can-Am 500(k) and should lead plenty of laps. Harvick was fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday and then ended up fastest in Happy Hour. His ten-lap average in that final session was the best as well. About the only things that could keep Harvick from a great finish this weekend are a mechanical issue or his pit crew screwing him in some way. The latter is much more likely to happen, but it’s still a long shot.

2. Chase Elliott – Starts 2nd – DraftKings Price: $9,900 – FanDuel Price: $13,000
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Chase Elliott is pretty much in a must-win situation this weekend if he wants to make it to Homestead. Obviously, trouble could happen to a couple of the guys ahead of him in points on Sunday and he could still make it in that way, but chances are he’s going to need to win–and I think he can do it. If you remember back to the first Phoenix race, I was very high on Chase Elliott, so much so that I ranked him #1 in my final predictions. The #9 team didn’t make it to victory lane that day, but they did end up with a 3rd-place finish, and that was back when Hendrick Motorsports wasn’t running nearly as well as they are now. For Chase, that was his second straight top 3 finish here at Phoenix, and he should add a third in a row this weekend. Overall, Elliott has an average finish of 6.8 at this track over the course of five career starts, and he’s never had a driver rating under 101. Chase qualified 2nd for this weekend’s Can-Am 500(k), and that’s something to note because this #9 team hasn’t been great at qualifying as of late. Looking at the whole season, the #9 Chevrolet has started inside the top 5 in eleven races and has finished 6th or better in seven of them. The exceptions? Three restrictor plate races and the Chicagoland event. As far as practice goes, Chase was 6th-fastest in Saturday’s first session (with the 8th-best ten-lap average) and then ranked 12th and 7th (respectively) on those charts in Happy Hour. I’d consider him as a lock for a top 5 finish on Sunday and a definite race contender.

3. Kyle Busch – Starts 6th – DraftKings Price: $11,600 – FanDuel Price: $13,500
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

There’s no reason for Kyle Busch to push it this weekend. That doesn’t mean that he won’t end up with a top 5 finish on Sunday, but it’s hard to imagine Rowdy in victory lane without the race win literally falling in his lap. This #18 team is in the best position points-wise when it comes to making it to Homestead, and even with a surprise victor like Chase Elliott, Kyle should have a good cushion. So a mistake-free Sunday is what this #18 team is more than likely looking for. Now with that being said, a mistake-free day is still more than likely a top 5 finish. Busch has ended up 7th or better in each of the last six Phoenix races and there’s no reason why he won’t make it seven in a row this weekend. He finished 2nd here back in March despite leading the most laps, and also won both Richmond races this season, which is the track most similar to ISM Raceway. As far as this weekend goes, Rowdy qualified 6th and looked solid in both practices on Saturday, ending up 4th-fastest with the 4th-best ten-lap average in the first session, and then 3rd and 4th (respectively) in Happy Hour. This #18 team had their legitimately bad Playoff race at Texas last weekend. That won’t happen twice in a row.