Atlanta Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Paul Menard – At Atlanta, I’m projecting Paul Menard to be a mid to high-teens driver. In 4 of the last 5 races at this worn out 1.5 mile track he’s come home with a result in the teens. Over the last five races he has an 18.2 average finish and a 19.3 average running position. Last year he had a quiet afternoon. He finished 17th and had a 15th place average running position. In 2017, Paul Menard didn’t have a great race and also had electrical problems late. Performance wise he was mid-twenties good. When the checkered flag waved he finished 25th and had a 25th place average running position. In the three Atlanta races prior to that Menard had results of 18th, 13th and 18th. I’ll note racing at worn out surfaces hasn’t been a strength for Menard. Last year at high-tire wear intermediates (Atlanta, Auto Club, Chicagoland and Homestead) he had an 18.5 average finish.
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Ryan Newman – Ryan Newman is a driver who I’ll be in “sit and watch” mode at Atlanta. This race should be very telling as to what we can expect from Newman in the #6 car over the course of the season. It’s not a competitive car and I would look for him to be a mid to high-teens driver, and its probably safer to lean more towards the high-teens. Last year at Atlanta in the #31 he was probably low-double digits to mid-teens good but finished an asterisk mark 22nd. In the race he started 2nd, led the first 17 laps, was in 3rd on lap 52 but then on lap 80 while he was running in 12th he got into the wall and made an unexpected pit stop. In the race he was fast over short runs but dropped off over long runs. In 2017 he ran well but finished a misleading 35th. Performance wise he was easily top ten good but he developed battery issues in the closing laps and that led to him going to the garage. In the race he started 2nd, finished 6th in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. In 2016 he had a great chance to finish in the top ten but his race wasn’t incident free and he finished a misleading 24th. His first problem in the race happened with 40 laps to go when he was running in 10th but was penalized for his crew going over the wall too soon. Then with 3 laps to go while he was running in 12th he had a cut tire and spun. Additionally from the race it should be noted he had a 9th place average running position and earned the 13th best driver rating. In the three Atlanta races prior to that Newman had results of 10th, 7th and 5th.
Daniel Hemric – In the #8 car at Atlanta, I think Daniel Hemric might be able to surprise people and run well. I’m talking about maybe finishing in the mid-teens, but that’s being very optimistic. He’s never driven at an intermediate track in NASCAR’s top series so there’s tons of unknowns. Realistically I would play it safe and view him as a low-twenties driver. Last year at Atlanta in the lower series in RCR equipment he finished 11th. In 2017 he finished 9th. I’ll note in recent seasons both Austin Dillon and Ryan Newman have run well here in RCR equipment. That’s the primary reason why I’m optimistic with Hemric at Atlanta.
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