Atlanta Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks
1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 18th)
Atlanta Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick is a super-elite performer at Atlanta who’ll be the driver to beat. At Atlanta he’s been in a league of his own over the last couple of seasons and has been good enough to win the last five races. Over the last five he’s averaged leading 183 laps per race, has a 2.8 average running position, a misleading 7.4 average finish and he has the best driver rating by a huge margin. In Happy Hour, Harvick had a great car. He had the 4th best ten lap average and the 2nd best 20 lap average. Most importantly his power steering issue was fixed. On Sunday I would look for Harvick to compete for the win and at worst finish in the top five.
Atlanta Track History – Last year at Atlanta, Harvick’s car was in a zip code of its own. When the checkered flag waved he finished first, earned the best driver rating and led 181 laps. What makes that more impressive is that his race wasn’t incident free. Just after he won Stage #1 he made an extra pit stop which dropped him back to 19th. In 2017 he had a stellar car but finished an asterisk mark 9th after getting a late pit penalty while leading. In the race he won Stage #1, won Stage #2, earned the best driver rating and led an impressive 292 laps. In 2016 he should’ve won, but pit strategy and then a late caution were his undoing. In that race he finished 6th, earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led a race high 131 laps. In 2015 he finished 2nd and led 116 laps.
DraftKings $12,200/ FanDuel $14,000
2) Kyle Larson (Starting – 7th)
Atlanta Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson will be a contender at Atlanta. The high-line comes into play and he’s the premiere driver at running that groove. I theorize the new rules package will make it even more beneficial to running the high line, but that’s something we’ll have to learn about in the race. At Atlanta, Larson has performed at a high-level and has come close to victory lane in the past. On Sunday I think he’ll finish in the top five and be a factor to win. In Happy Hour, Larson had the 2nd best ten lap average and the best 20 lap average.
Atlanta Track History – Atlanta has been a good track for Kyle Larson and in 3 of his 5 races he’s finished in the top ten. Currently he has back to back top tens. Last year he had a strong showing and was a consistent top ten performer. He finished 9th, had an 8th place average running position, earned the 10th best driver rating, finished 7th in Stage #1 and 7th in Stage #2. In 2017 he came close to victory lane, but finished 2nd after making some bad lane decisions at the end. From the race it should be noted he led 7 laps, earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position, finished 9th in Stage #1 and 5th in Stage #2.
DraftKings $9,300/ FanDuel $11,000
3) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 9th)
Atlanta Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. has never won at Atlanta, but he should be on your short list of favorites. Atlanta has been a great track for him and he’s consistently performed at a high level. In 6 of the last 7 races at this worn out oval he’s finished between 3rd to 8th. One attribute you have to love about Martin Truex Jr. is his tire wear management skills. In 2018 at intermediate tracks where tire wear is the most extreme (Atlanta, Auto Club, Chicagoland and Homestead) he had a series best 3.0 average finish. Change is in the air this weekend, but I’m confident Cole Pearn (his crew chief) will have the #19 team ready to perform. In Happy Hour, Truex Jr. had the 3rd best ten lap average and the 3rd best 20 lap average.
Atlanta Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has run well at Atlanta. Over the last four races he has a 6.5 average finish and a 7.5 average running position. Last year he had a great car and drove his way up through the field twice. In the race he started back in 35th after not making a qualifying lap but that wasn’t a problem. When Stage #1 ended he finished 4th. On lap 160 while he was in 5th he had a slow pit stop which dropped him deep in the field again. When the checkered flag waved he finished 5th, earned the 6th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position. In 2017 at Atlanta he had a solid showing. He finished 8th, earned the 8th best driver rating and had a 6th place average running position. In both Stage 1 & 2 he finished 4th. In 2016 he earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position, finished 7th and led 34 laps. If it wasn’t for late cautions he likely would’ve finished in 4th.
DraftKings $9,500/ FanDuel $12,500
