Texas Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions
Wacky: that’s about the only way you can describe this weekend so far at Texas Motor Speedway. Qualifying in and of itself was a little crazy on Friday, with many of the “favorite” drivers ending up outside of the top 10, and then one of the two practice sessions on Saturday ended up getting cancelled because of weather. Additionally, both the Truck Series and Xfinity Series races have had more wrecks than normal, so if that happens on Sunday…well, it’s going to be interesting. Something to note: Texas Motor Speedway was repaved before the 2017 races, so really I’m only focusing on the data from those four events and not overall track history.
Jimmie Johnson is on the pole for this weekend’s race and will have his teammate, William Byron, starting alongside. The full starting lineup for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 can be found by clicking here. You can find the practice speeds for Saturday’s lone practice sessions here: Happy Hour. You should also read our in-depth notes for that practice here: Happy Hour.
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Final Top 25 Fantasy NASCAR Rankings for Texas
1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 23rd – DraftKings Price: $10,700 – FanDuel Price: $14,000 – Slingshot Price: $12,400
Even though he starts back in 23rd for Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, all statistics point to Kevin Harvick having a great day. If you look at the four Texas races since the track was repaved in 2017, Harvick has posted 22.5% of the fastest laps and 28.9% of the laps led among active drivers, all the while averaging a finish of 2nd and an average running position of 4th. All of those are the best in the series. In the 1.5-mile races this season (Atlanta and Las Vegas), Harvick has posted 16% of the fastest laps and 22.5% of the laps led while maintaining an average running position of 3.5–all of which are best in the series except for the % of laps led (Kyle Larson is at 24% thanks to his Atlanta effort. The #4 Ford has been great here at Texas and has been very good at the 1.5-mile tracks this season, too. There’s no reason to go against Harvick this week in Fantasy NASCAR. “Happy” was 9th-fastest in the lone practice session here on Saturday while ranking 8th in ten-lap average. This #4 team is still searching for their first win of the 2019 season. I think they get it here on Sunday.
2. Joey Logano – Starts 8th – DraftKings Price: $11,600 – FanDuel Price: $13,500 – Slingshot Price: $12,700
You can expect Joey Logano to contend for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 win on Sunday. He’s got the best starting spot of all of the “major contenders,” and he’s finished 7th or better in ten of the last twelve races at this track. Looking specifically at the four races since the Texas repave, Logano has an average finish of 4.8 (2nd-best) with an average running position of 7th (3rd-best). Additionally, Joey is the most recent race winner on a 1.5-mile track, as the #22 Ford went to victory lane at Las Vegas Motor Speedway a few weeks ago. Logano didn’t show off crazy speed during Saturday’s practice session this weekend, but that’s been the case with the Penske Fords all season. Rest assured, all three will be great Fantasy NASCAR picks on Sunday.
3. Ryan Blaney – Starts 13th – DraftKings Price: $10,200 – FanDuel Price: $12,500 – Slingshot Price: $11,200
Texas Motor Speedway was repaved before the 2017 spring race, and in the four race we’ve ran here since then, Ryan Blaney has been one of the best–and that’s not going to change this weekend. The #12 team has a little work to do on Sunday, as they qualified 13th for Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, but that’s not a major issue. In terms of speed, Blaney put down the 3rd-fastest lap in Happy Hour on Saturday, and also ended up 5th-best when it came to ten-lap average. As mentioned before, Blaney’s record here at Texas is great, with an average running position of 7th over the last four races (3rd-best) and an average finish of 4.8 (2nd-best). Remember, Blaney had a chance to win at Las Vegas this year. This could be his redemption race on Sunday.
