Talladega Post Practice Predictions/ Confidence Ranking Picks
The restrictor plate era is over, but Talladega will be as wild as ever. A new rules package is being used this weekend and the cars are faster than before in the draft. In Happy Hour, Newman clocked a lap of 204 MPH! Drivers are reporting that the closing rates in the draft are nothing like they’ve felt before. Buckle up!
One shocking statistic at Talladega is that 8 of the last 9 races have been won from a top ten starting position. The average starting position of the winner over the last two years is 5th. Here’s the Starting Lineup For Sunday’s GEICO 500.
On Friday, two practice sessions were held. I would stress that practice is of minimal importance and I wouldn’t read into speeds at all. Here’s Practice #1 Notes and Practice #1 Speeds. Here’s Happy Hour Notes and Happy Hour Speeds. I’ll also note this is a combined Post Practice Predictions/ Confidence Rankings post. Posts will resume as normal next week. Thanks for understanding.
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BREAKING SUNDAY AM NEWS: Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Ryan Newman, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Erik Jones, Brendan Gaughan, Reed Sorenson and Cody Ware are all starting in the rear of the field. They’ll be scored from their qualifying position.
1) Joey Logano / Starting 8th – DraftKings Price $11,200 – FanDuel Price $13,500
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Joey Logano is a three-time winner at Talladega who’ll be a favorite. He’s thrived here and when it comes to super speedway racing he’s the perfect combination of smart and aggressive. At Talladega, you have to love Logano’s recent level of performance. In 5 of the last 7 races at this “Wild Card” track he’s finished in the top 5. On Sunday, look for Logano to compete for the win.
Talladega Track History – Joey Logano is a strong performer at Talladega who’s thrived at this wild card track. When it comes to making a default pick you’ll be hard pressed to find a better option. Last fall at Talladega, Logano had a great car. He finished 5th, finished 5th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2, had an 8th place average running position and earned the 4th best driver rating. In spring 2018, he had a fast car and raced his way to victory lane in convincing fashion. In the race he earned the best driver rating, led 70 laps, finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2. In fall 2017, Logano had a strong showing and finished 4th despite being involved in an accident. From that race it should be noted he he earned the best driver rating and led a race high 59 laps. In spring 2017, he ran well but finished a misleading 32nd after getting collected in the late “Big One.” Two laps prior to crashing he was running in 5th. In fall 2016, Logano led the final 45 laps and raced his way to victory lane.
2) Brad Keselowski / Starting 4th – DraftKings Price $10,700 – FanDuel Price – $13,200
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Brad Keselowski is arguably the premiere super speedway driver in NASCAR and at Talladega he’ll be a favorite. He knows how to race his way to the front, and once he gets there he’s hard to get around. At Talladega, he’s a five-time winner who’s finished in the top five 35% percent of the time and in the top ten 55% percent of the time. Change is in the air this weekend with restrictor plates being gone, but I don’t think that will slow him down. He’ll have a great car underneath him and I think he’s one of the smartest drivers around. He’ll find a way to be successful.
Talladega Track History – Brad Keselowski is a strong performer at Talladega. Over his last four incident free races here he has 2 wins and a 3.25 average finish. Last fall, he had a great car but finished a misleading 27th. Late in the race there was a caution and that caused him to pit for fuel. With 6 laps to go before the final caution came out he was running in 8th. In the race he led 21 laps, had a 12th place average running position, earned the 11th best driver rating and finished 10th in Stage #2. Last spring he had a great car but was collected in a late wreck. From the race I’ll note he won Stage #1, finished just outside the top ten in Stage #2 and led 21 laps. In Stage #2 on lap 68 he was caught speeding on pit road under green. In fall 2017, he was fast and raced his way to victory lane. In the race he won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2 and led 7 laps. In spring 2017, Keselowski had a strong showing. He finished 7th, earned the 2nd best driver rating, won Stage #1 and led 31 laps.
3) Kevin Harvick / Starting 19th – DraftKings Price $11,600 – FanDuel Price $13,000
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick is an elite super speedway performer who’ll be tough to beat at Talladega. He’s a previous winner who’s finished in the top ten 42% percent of the time. Last year, he ran extremely well and was a top five contender in both races. One attribute I like about Harvick is how well he’s run on a weekly basis in 2019. This year minus Daytona where he wrecked like everybody else, he has a 6.5 average finish. On Sunday if he has an incident free race, I would look for him to finish in the top ten and potentially compete for a top five.
Talladega Track History – Kevin Harvick has been a successful performer at Talladega. He’s a former winner who was extremely strong in both races last year. Last fall he had one of the best cars, but finished a misleading 28th. Late in the race there was a caution which extended the race into overtime and that forced him to pit for fuel. If he end of the race stayed green he was a lock for a top 4 finish. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 46 laps and was running in 3rd right before he pitted late. Last spring, he had a great car. He finished 4th, earned the 3rd best driver rating and led 12 laps. Additionally, he finished 9th in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. In fall 2017 he was a top ten contender but was involved in an accident and finished 20th. In spring 2017 he had a strong car and ran really well but he was involved in a late wreck which led to a 23rd place finish. From the race it should be noted he finished 2nd in Stage #2 and led 15 laps. “Performance wise”, I thought he likely had top five potential. Prior to that event he had 7 straight results in the top 15.
