Michigan Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks
1) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 8th)
Michigan Fantasy Spin – Michigan is Brad Keselowski’s home track and on Sunday he should be on your short list of favorites. It’s been a great track for him and he’s come close to victory lane in the past. He finished runner-up last summer and in 8 of the last 10 races he’s finished in the top ten. One attribute I really like about Brad Keselowski is how well he’s run at high-speed intermediate tracks. This year on this track type minus Texas he’s won twice and has a 5.2 average finish. I consider Kansas to be a mini-Michigan and he recently won there. On Sunday, look for Keselowski to finish in the top five and be a serious threat to win.
Michigan Track History – Michigan has been a great track for Brad Keselowski. Last summer, Keselowski had his best Michigan race and finished runner-up. Additionally, he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 10th place average running position and finished 9th in both Stage #1 and #2. Last spring in the rain shortened event he was a consistent front runner. He finished 6th, had a 6th place average running position, finished 6th in Stage #1 and 7th in Stage #2. In August 2017, Keselowski arguably had the best car, but pit strategy and a poor late restart led to his misleading 17th place finish. In the race he won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2 and led 105 laps. In spring 2017 he showed top ten potential, but when the checkered flag waved he finished 16th. From the race it should be noted he earned the 11th best driver rating and had an 11th place average running position. Prior to the last 40 laps he typically ran right around 10th. In the six Michigan races prior to that he had a 5.5 average result and finished between 3rd to 9th every race.
DraftKings $11,200 / FanDuel $13,000
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2) Joey Logano (Starting – 1st)
Michigan Fantasy Spin – Joey Logano is a two-time winner at Michigan who’ll be one of the drivers to beat. On Sunday he’s starting on the pole, his two previous wins here both came from that starting position. One thing you have to love about Logano at Michigan is his consistency. In 11 of the last 12 races he’s finished in the top ten. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks he’s been one of the strongest performers, even though he has a few misleading results. At the last intermediate track visited he finished runner-up. Heading into the weekend you have to like how well the #22 team is running. Since April he’s scored the most points, has a 5.7 average finish and has only once finished outside the top 7. On Sunday, look for Logano to compete for a top five and be a factor to win.
Michigan Track History – Michigan has been a great track for Joey Logano and he’s consistently finished well. In 2018 at MIS, Logano was one of seven drivers who swept the top ten. Last summer, Logano finished 10th, earned the 10th best driver rating and finished 6th in Stage #2. Last spring he was slightly more competitive. He finished 7th, earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. In summer 2017 when he was in a slump he faded over the course of the race and had a late flat tire that led to his 28th place finish. In spring 2017, Logano finished 3rd, earned the 7th best driver rating and had a 10th place average running position. In 2016 he had results of 10th and 1st.
DraftKings $9,700 / FanDuel $13,500
NOTE: Inspection is being held on Saturday (~1:30 PM start time) and if a driver fails their qualifying time is disallowed and they start in the rear of the field. They’ll also be scored from their new starting position. Look for updates to this post and others as needed following inspection.
3) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 3rd)
Michigan Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick is an elite performer at Michigan who’ll be tough to beat. He’s the most recent winner and in 9 of the last 12 races he’s finished in the top five. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks he’s been fast and over the six combined races he’s scored the most points, has a 7.2 average finish and a 7.2 average running position. In practice, the #4 car was fast. Jeff Gordon was impressed with his speed and in both Practice #1 and Happy Hour he had the 4th best ten lap average. On Sunday, look for Harvick to compete for a top five and potentially be a factor to win.
Michigan Track History – Last year at Michigan, nobody was better than Kevin Harvick. He won in the summer and should’ve won in the spring. Last August, nobody had anything for him and he easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race he won Stage#1, won Stage #2, led 108 laps, had a 3rd place average running position and nearly earned a perfect driver rating. Last spring, Harvick finished 2nd, but nobody was better than him. In the race he earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position, led a race high 49 laps, finished 4th in Stage #1 and won Stage #2. I will note if Clint Bowyer didn’t do a two-tire pit stop right before the rain, Harvick would’ve won. In summer 2017 he was a top five contender, but finished a misleading 13th after using inferior pit strategy in the final third of the race. Prior to the last portion of the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. In spring 2017 he was involved in a late wreck and finished 14th. Right before he got some damage late he was running in 8th. In the 8 Michigan races prior to that Harvick had 5 second place finishes and 7 top fives.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $14,000
