Michigan Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions
Before taking a week off for Father’s Day, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is at Michigan International Speedway for the Firekeepers Casino 400 on Sunday. Weather-wise, it seems like Michigan has turned into a little Pocono lately, as there’s always a chance of showers it seems like, and that is the case this weekend as well. Thankfully, it looks like the rain is going to stay away until later on Sunday, so hopefully we get the full race in. Remember, last year’s Firekeepers Casino 400 was called after 133 of the 200 schedule laps due to weather.
For the record: Fontana is the sister track to Michigan, so if you see that referenced, that’s why.
Track position has been a major key for success at Michigan over the years, and with this new rules package, there’s no reason why that should change. Joey Logano has the best track position heading into Sunday, as he won the pole on Saturday, and the full starting lineup for the 2019 Firekeepers Casino 400 can be found by clicking here. You can find the practice speeds for Friday’s practice sessions here: Practice #1 — Practice #2. You should also read our in-depth notes for those sessions: Practice #1 — Practice #2.
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Final Top 25 Fantasy NASCAR Rankings for Michigan
1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 3rd – DraftKings Price: $10,700 – FanDuel Price: $14,000 – Slingshot Price: $11,500
Unless you’ve purposely faded Kevin Harvick this year, you’re probably like me and more than frustrated with how this #4 team can’t seem to put together a full race. Heading into Michigan this weekend, though, Kevin Harvick is probably on one of the worse slumps in recent memory: he finished 4th at Dover back in early May, but that is one of just two results better than 10th for “Happy” in the last seven points-paying races. Over the last three, his average finish is 15th. But the thing is, it’s not because of slow race cars. Harvick is up there leading laps and usually running inside the top 5, he just more often than not runs into some trouble during the race. With that being said, I’m still expecting a great run out of this #4 team on Sunday at Michigan. This 2-mile track has been a great venue for Harvick over the years, as he has finished 1st or 2nd in seven of the last twelve in the Irish Hills. Throw in a couple 5th-place finishes and he has nine top 5s in the last twelve. And looking at Fontana from earlier this year, Harvick started 2nd and finished 4th. This weekend, the #4 Ford was one of the fastest in both practice sessions on Friday and ranked 4th in ten-lap average in each. If there was a track to pick where Harvick gets out of his slump, Michigan is at or near the top of the list.
2. Joey Logano – Starts 1st – DraftKings Price: $9,700 – FanDuel Price: $13,500 – Slingshot Price: $12,000
Consistency is the name of the game with Joey Logano at 2-mile race tracks. Looking at the last four Michigan races as well as the last three Fontana events, Logano’s had an average driver rating of 101.3 (6th-best) with four top 5s and six top 10s. Not too shabby. And when you throw in the fact that this #22 team has just one result worse than 7th in the last seven Cup Series races overall, Logano has to be one of the safest Fantasy NASCAR plays this weekend as well. As far as speed goes, as I said with Brad Keselowski, none of the Penske Fords looked amazing here on Friday. Logano definitely looked the slowest of the three, but honestly that’s typically the case on most race weekends–I think it’s just a practice style of this #22 team. Looking at the last six years of Michigan events (12 races) Joey has just one result outside of the top 10. I don’t expect that to change on Sunday.
3. Brad Keselowski – Starts 8th – DraftKings Price: $11,200 – FanDuel Price: $13,000 – Slingshot Price: $12,700
One guy that’s been a top 5 machine at 2-mile tracks lately is Brad Keselowski. Over the last five races at Fontana, Bad Brad has an average finish of 3.8–including a 3rd-place finish this year–and then here at Michigan (his home track), he’s posted a single-digit finish in eight of the last ten races. Speed-wise, none of the Penske cars blew anyone else out of the water on Friday, but that’s pretty much been how they have operated all season long. Don’t worry, though, all three should be plenty fast on race day. Kez ranked 4th in 20-lap average during Happy Hour on Friday, and even though not many people made that long of a run in final practice (thus inflating how good the #2 Ford would actually be), the fact that Brad stayed out of the track for that long is an indication that he likes his car. I could see Keselowski running around 7th-10th all day and then position himself in the end for a top 5.
