Sonoma Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks
1) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 8th)
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is the defending champion at Sonoma and on Sunday he’ll be tough to beat. Right now in NASCAR, I view Truex Jr. as the premiere road course racer in the series. Last year on this track type he won at Sonoma, finished 2nd at Watkins Glen and would’ve won at the Charlotte Roval if Johnson didn’t spin him in the final turn. At Sonoma, Truex Jr. has run extremely well and if he didn’t have problems in 2017 he would have three straight top fives. Following Happy Hour, Truex Jr. said his car has a lot of speed and he feels good about it. When he’s happy, you know he’ll be tough to beat. On Sunday, look for Truex Jr. to finish in the top five and be a serious threat to win.
Sonoma Track History – Martin Truex Jr. is a two-time winner at Sonoma who ranks as one of the strongest performers. Last year, Truex Jr. had a phenomenal car and raced his way to victory lane. Additionally, he earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led a race high 62 laps. I will note pit strategy certainly played a role in him winning, but his car was exceptional nonetheless. In 2017, Truex Jr. had one of the best cars, but finished an asterisk mark 37th. In the race he won Stage #1, led a race high 25 laps and earned the 4th best driver rating. Late in the race with about 35 laps to go while he was running in 2nd he developed engine issues. In 2016 he had a very strong car that was one of the fastest over long runs. When the checkered flag waved he earned the best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and finished 5th. In 2013, Truex Jr. won his first race here.
DraftKings $10,800 / FanDuel $14,000
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2) Kyle Busch (Starting – 7th)
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch is a two-time winner at Sonoma who should be on your short list of favorites. He’s run exceptionally well here and over the last four races he has a 4.5 average finish, the 3rd best driver rating and has finished in the top 7 every race. With how well the #18 team has been running on a weekly basis this year it’s unlikely he’ll be a fantasy let down. During Happy Hour on Friday, Busch spun four times! That’s certainly not encouraging, but I’m going to view it as him having all of his spins out of the way for the weekend. From that session I’ll note his crew chief was pleased with his lap times.
Sonoma Track History – Kyle Busch is a recent Sonoma winner who ranks as one of the best. Over the last four Sonoma races his 4.5 average finish ranks as the 2nd best. Last year, Busch had a strong performance. He finished 5th, earned the 5th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. In 2017, Busch had a very competitive afternoon. He finished 5th and earned the 6th best driver rating. In 2016, he was very strong and had one of the best cars. In the race he earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and finished 7th. In 2015, Busch was poised to finish 3rd, but thanks to a late caution which allowed him to get a tire advantage he was able to race his way to victory lane.
DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $15,000
3) Clint Bowyer (Starting – 14th)
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – Clint Bowyer is one of the best road course racers in NASCAR and at Sonoma he’ll be a contender. He’s a former winner who’s consistently performed at a high-level. Over the last eight Sonoma races he has 6 top fives and 7 top tens. Last year at road courses over the combined races he had a 5.7 average finish. In 2017 on this track type his average finish was 3.5. In Happy Hour, Clint Bowyer had a great car. He had the best 10 and the 2nd best 15 lap average. I’ll also note Jeff Gordon really liked his long run speed. On Sunday, look for Bowyer to compete for a top five.
Sonoma Track History – Clint Bowyer is an elite performer at Sonoma. He’s only won once, but he’s finished in the top five 62% percent of the time and in the top ten 77% percent of the time. Since 2015 minus 2016 when he had an early electrical fire in a junk car he’s finished in the top 3 every race and has a 2.7 average finish. Last year, Bowyer had a great car. He finished 3rd, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 6th place average running position. In 2017, he was even better and finished runner-up. In 2016 when he wasn’t in a competitive situation, he had an early electrical fire on lap 5 which led to his 40th place finish. In the five Sonoma races prior to that he finished in the top ten every race, had a 4.6 average finish and an 8.4 average running position.
DraftKings $9,300 / FanDuel $12,000
