Kentucky Fantasy NASCAR Post Practice Predictions/ Confidence Rankings (UPDATED)
On Saturday night, NASCAR is racing at Kentucky. This race marks the start of the second half of the 2019 season and the final 1.5 mile track visited until the Playoffs. Six 1.5’s have been visited so far this year and the drivers who were good in those races, will likely be the ones to beat at Kentucky.
NASCAR went with another condensed schedule this weekend, holding two Cup Series practices on Friday followed by qualifying in evening. You can see the speeds from those practices here: Practice #1 – Happy Hour. I’d also recommend reading our in-depth notes for each session, which can be found here: Practice #1 – Happy Hour.
The starting lineup, which is tentative until inspection is completed can be found HERE.
IMPORTANT: Inspection this weekend is being held on Saturday starting at 1:30 PM. This is the type of inspection where if a driver fails their qualifying time is disallowed and they start in the rear of the field. They’ll also be scored from their new “rear of the field” starting position. This post and others will be adjusted as needed
I’ll also note that this is a combined post practice predictions/ confidence rankings post. Posts will resume as normal next week. Thanks for understanding.
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1) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 3rd)
Kentucky Fantasy Spin – Brad Keselowski won the inaugural race on the new Kentucky surface and on Saturday night he’ll be a contender. This year at 1.5 mile tracks he’s been a standout performer. At tracks of this length he’s won twice and minus a misleading result at Texas his average finish is 5.6. That average finish is impressive, but I’ll note it still underrates just how good he’s been at these venues. In practice, Keselowski was strong. He had the 3rd best ten lap average in Practice #1 and the 4th best ten lap average in Happy Hour. His 15 lap average in Happy Hour ranked as the 7th best. On Saturday night, look for Keselowski to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Kentucky Track History – Brad Keselowski ranks as one of the strongest performers at Kentucky on the new configuration. Last year, Keselowski had a great car. He finished 3rd, earned the 5th best driver rating, had a 10th place average running position and led 38 laps. In 2017, Keselowski had a short race and finished 39th after wrecking on lap #88 during the Stage #2 restart. At the end of Stage #1 he finished around 12th. In 2016, Keselowski raced his way to victory lane. In addition to winning he earned the second best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 75 laps. I will note if fuel mileage strategy didn’t enter the equation near the end he likely wouldn’t have won.
DraftKings $10,000 / FanDuel $12,500
2) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 8th)
Kentucky Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at Kentucky who’ll be one of the drivers to beat. He’s dominated the last two races here and was uncontested in both events. Over the last two Kentucky races he’s won all the Stages and has led over 60% of the laps. This year at 1.5 mile tracks, Truex Jr. has been strong. He has a series best 8.5 average finish and recently won at Charlotte in impressive fashion. During practice on Friday, Truex Jr. never made a ten lap run in either session. Personally, I wouldn’t be concerned about that. On Saturday night, look for Truex Jr. to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Kentucky Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has thrived at Kentucky. Over the three combined races on the current Kentucky configuration he has the best driver rating, the best average finish (4.0), the best average running position (3.0) and he’s led the most laps (372). Last year, Truex Jr. had a phenomenal performance. He started first, finished first, won the first two Stages, led 174 laps and earned a near perfect driver rating. In 2017, he was the class of the field. In that race he won the first two Stages, earned a near perfect driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 152 laps. With 15 laps to go in that race he had a 14.1 second lead. In 2016, he had a good performance. He earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position, finished 10th and led 46 laps. “Performance wise”, he was easily top five good but he got a costly pit road penalty while running in 2nd, and then fuel mileage strategy burned him a little at the end.
DraftKings $11,000 / FanDuel $13,000
3) Kyle Busch (Starting – 10th)
Kentucky Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch has thrived at Kentucky and on Saturday night he’ll be a favorite. Over the three combined races on the current configuration he has the 2nd best driver rating, a 4th place average running position and a misleading 7.0 average finish. This year at 1.5 mile tracks he’s been one of the best performers, but he’s had some sort of issue in nearly every race. For the season at those venues minus Kansas and Chicagoland his average finish is 5.5. If Busch can avoid trouble, then I would look for him to finish in the top five and compete for the win. In practice, Kyle Busch had a great car. In Happy Hour he had the 2nd best ten lap average and the second best 15 lap average.
Kentucky Track History – Last year at Kentucky, Busch had a great performance and ran well throughout the race. He finished 3rd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had a 5th place average running position and finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. In 2017, Busch had a great performance. He finished 5th, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, led 112 laps and finished 2nd in the first two Stages. In 2016, Busch ran well but finished an asterisk mark 12th. “Performance Wise”, he was top five good but fuel mileage strategy burned him late. From the race I’ll note he earned the 5th best driver rating and had a 6th place average running position.
DraftKings $11,500 / FanDuel $14,000
