Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks
1) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 9th)
Darlington Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin is one of the premiere performers at Darlington and on Sunday he should be on your short list of favorites. Darlington is a “skill track” and he’s thrived at this “egg shaped oval.” He’s a two-time winner who’s finished in the top five 54% percent of the time, in the top ten 85% percent of the time and has only once finished worse than 13th. His overall average finish over his 13 races is an impressive 6.2. One attribute I like about Hamlin is how well he’s been running recently. Momentum matters in fantasy NASCAR and nobody is hotter than him. He’s fresh off a trip to victory lane and his average finish over the last five races is an impressive 1.8. In practice, Hamlin was quick. In Happy Hour he had the 2nd best 10 lap average, the 2nd best 15 lap average and the 3rd best 15 lap average. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to finish in the top five and be a serious threat to win.
Darlington Track History – Darlington ranks as one of Denny Hamlin’s best tracks. Over the last four races at “The Track Too Tough To Tame” he has a 4.5 average finish and a 6.3 average running position. Last year, I would describe Hamlin as a solid performers. He finished 10th, earned the 10th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position. In 2017, Hamlin had a stellar showing and in the closing laps he reeled in Martin Truex Jr. and then raced his way to victory lane. In the race he earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, led 124 laps (tied for the most), finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2. In 2016, Hamlin had a great performance. He finished 4th, earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. In 3 of the 4 Darlington races prior to that he finished in the top 3.
DraftKings $11,400 / FanDuel $14,000
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2) Kyle Larson (Starting – 3rd)
Darlington Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson should be high on your fantasy NASCAR radar at Darlington. It’s been a great track for him and if there wasn’t a late caution last year he would be entering the weekend as the defending champion. Throughout his career he’s performed well here, and over his five combined races his average finish is 7.6. Heading into the weekend I like how well Larson has been performing in recent races. Over the last four he’s scored the 4th most points and has a 5.5 average finish. In Happy Hour, Larson had a great car over long runs. In that session he had the best 10 and 15 lap averages. On Sunday, I would look for Larson to compete for a top five.
Darlington Track History – Kyle Larson has performed at a high-level at Darlington. Last year, Larson was the class of the field but a late caution cost him a certain victory. In the race he won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 284 laps, earned the best driver rating by a wide margin and finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. In 2017, Kyle Larson had one of the best cars, but finished a misleading 14th. In the last quarter of the race he had some sort of parts issue that hampered his level of competitiveness. In the race he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position, tied for leading a race high 124 laps, finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. Up until he had problems I think it’s clear he was going to finish in the top five. In 2016 he finished 3rd and led 45 laps. In the two races prior to that he had results of 8th and 10th.
DraftKings $10,600 / FanDuel $11,500
Further Recommended Reading: Darlington Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Darlington Practice Notes/ Practice Speed Center, Darlington Speed Cheat Sheet, DraftKings Start Page, FanDuel Start Page
3) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 2nd)
Darlington Fantasy Spin – Brad Keselowski is the defending champion at Darlington and on Sunday he should be on your short list of favorites. He’s run extremely well here and in recent races he ranks as arguably the best. Over the last four combined events he has the 2nd best driver rating, a 6.8 average finish, a 5.8 average running position and he’s led 270 laps. One attribute I like about Keselowski is how well he’s been running recently. If fuel mileage didn’t enter the equation at the end of Michigan #2 he would be entering the weekend with 5 straight top tens. On Sunday, look for Keselowski to compete for a top five and potentially be a factor to win.
Darlington Track History – Brad Keselowski has performed at a high-level at Darlington. In 2018 at “The Lady In Black” he raced his way to victory lane in both the Cup and the Xfinity Series. Last year in the Cup series en route to victory lane he earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position and led 24 laps. Additionally, he finished 5th in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2. I will note if there wasn’t a late caution in which he got the lead off pit road he likely wouldn’t have won. In 2017, Keselowski ran well but finished a misleading 15th. “Performance Wise”, I think he was likely about 5th place good but in the last quarter of the race he got into the wall and after that he was no longer competitive. In the race he finished 5th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, had a 9th place average running position and earned the 9th best driver rating. In 2016, Keselowski ran well and was better than his 9th place result. In the race he earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position and led 47 laps. On lap 192 while he was running in 2nd he made an unexpected pit stop that dropped him a lap down to 17th. In 2015 he was the class of the field. He earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position, finished 2nd and led 196 laps. If a late caution didn’t come out in that race he likely would’ve won.
DraftKings $9,600 / FanDuel $11,000
