Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks (UPDATED)
1) Kyle Busch (Starting – 4th)
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch is the premiere performer at Richmond and on Saturday night he’ll be the driver to beat. At Richmond, he’s a 6-time winner who’s finished in the top five 61% percent of the time and in the top ten 75% percent of the time. In recent Richmond races, Kyle Busch has been extremely strong. He won both races last year and if he didn’t get a speeding penalty while leading this spring, he likely would’ve won that race too. One attribute I like about Busch is how strong he’s been at shorter-flat tracks this year. In 2019 over the combined races on this track type he’s scored the most points, has a 5.7 average finish and a 5.0 average running position. In Happy Hour, Busch was quick and his 25 lap average ranked as the 6th best. On Saturday night, look for Busch to finish in the top five and be a serious threat to win.
Richmond Track History – Kyle Busch has owned Richmond and he’s consistently been the driver to beat. Over the last four Richmond races, Busch has a series best 4.8 average finish, the 2nd best average running position (6.8) and the 2nd best driver rating. This spring, Kyle Busch had a phenomenal car and finished 3rd. That’s a great result, but he may have very well had the best car. In the race he won Stage #1, led 101 laps but around lap 130 during a caution he was caught speeding on pit road while leading and that penalty dropped him back to 24th. Last fall, Busch started in the rear of the field but that wasn’t a problem. When the checkered flag waved he finished 1st, earned the 3rd best driver rating and led 92 laps. In spring 2018, Busch had a great car and raced his way to victory lane from the 32nd place starting position. In addition to winning he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position, led 32 laps and finished 6th in both Stage #1 and Stage #2.
DraftKings $12,000 / FanDuel $14,500
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2) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 2nd)
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick is an elite performer at Richmond who’ll be a favorite. He’s a three-time winner who’s finished in the top five in 6 of the last 7 races. This year at shorter-flat tracks, he’s thrived. He’s the most recent winner on this track type (New Hampshire) and over the three combined races he has a 4.7 average finish and a 5.7 average running position. One attribute I really like about Harvick is how well he’s been running recently. Since his win at New Hampshire minus Bristol, he’s won 3 races, has a 3.1 average finish and a 5.7 average running position. In Happy Hour, Harvick’s 30 lap average ranked as the 3rd best. On Saturday night, look for Harvick to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Richmond Track History – Kevin Harvick has performed at an extremely high-level at Richmond and in 6 of the last 7 races he’s finished in the top 5. Earlier this year at Richmond, Harvick finished 4th, had a 4th place average running position and led 30 laps. Additionally, he finished 4th in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. Last fall, Harvick had a great performance. He finished 2nd, finished 2nd in Stage 1 & 2, earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 40 laps. In spring 2018, he had a very solid showing. He finished 5th, earned the 6th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position. In 3 of the 4 Richmond races prior to that he finished 5th.
DraftKings $11,500 / FanDuel $14,500
NOTE: Bubba Wallace and JJ Yeley failed inspection
3) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 8th)
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at Richmond who’ll be tough to beat. He raced his way to victory lane this spring, and he’s been good enough to win many of the recent races. In 5 of the last 6 here he’s led +121 laps or more per race. Fresh off a win at Las Vegas ensuring he’ll be able to advance to the next round of the Playoffs, look for Truex Jr. to race hard and go all out for the win. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Truex Jr. has a series best 3.0 average finish. In Happy Hour, Treux Jr. was very fast and his 30 lap average ranked as the 2nd best. On Saturday night, look for Truex to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Richmond Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has run remarkably well at Richmond and in recent races he’s arguably the best. This spring at Richmond, Truex Jr. had a phenomenal car and when the checkered flag waved he finished 1st, earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position, led 186 laps, finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2. In 2018, Truex Jr. was good enough to win both races. Last fall, nobody was better than him but he finished a misleading 3rd. During the caution for Stage #2 which he just won his team had an uncontrolled tire which dropped him to the back of the field. From the race it should be noted he won Stage #1, won Stage #2 and led 163 laps. In spring 2018, he had a great car but finished a misleading 14th. In the race he led the most laps (121), had a 4th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. A slow pit stop with about 10 laps to go dropped him from 2nd to 9th, and then during a late caution with under 5 laps to go he pitted from 8th because his car was overheating. In fall 2017, Truex Jr. had the race won, but a late caution cost him a certain victory and led to him getting wrecked and finishing 20th. From the race it should be noted he won Stage #2, had a 2nd place average running position and led a race high 198 laps.
DraftKings $11,100 / FanDuel $13,500
