Dover Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 3rd)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is a fantasy ace at Dover who’ll likely be the driver to beat. He conquered “The Monster Mile” in dominant fashion this spring, and on Sunday I think he has a great chance to pull off the season sweep. At Dover in recent races, Truex Jr. has consistently performed at a super-elite level and in 5 of the last 6 he’s finished in the top 4. Heading into the weekend, you have to love how well the #19 team is running in the Playoffs. They’ve won 2 of the 3 races and have a 3.0 average finish. In Happy Hour, Truex Jr. had good speed and his 15 lap average ranked as the 7th best. On Sunday, look for Truex Jr. to finish in the top five and be a serious threat to win.
Dover Track History – Dover is Martin Truex Jr.’s home track and he’s performed like he has a home field advantage. Over the last six combined Dover races he has 2 wins, the best driver rating, the best average running position (5.0), he’s tied for the best average finish (4.7) and he’s led the 2nd most laps (472). Earlier this year, Truex Jr. started in the rear of the field, but that didn’t stop him from reaching victory lane. When Stage #2 ended, he was the leader. In addition to finishing 1st he earned the best driver rating and led 132 laps. Last fall, Truex Jr. finished a misleading 15th. During a debris caution with 60 laps to go while he was running in 3rd he was caught speeding on pit road. From the race I’ll note he finished 10th in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. In spring 2018, Truex Jr. had a phenomenal car. He finished 4th, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. In Stage #1 he made an unexpected pit stop, but in Stage #2 he finished 7th. In the three races prior to that he had results of 4th, 3rd and 1st.
DraftKings $11,600 / FanDuel $14,500

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2) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 4th)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick will be a favorite at Dover. He’s a super-elite performer who’s arguably been the best Dover driver in recent races. Over the last three Dover races, Harvick has 1 win, the best driver rating, the best average finish (3.7), the best average running position (3.0) and he’s led the most laps (488). One attribute I really like about Harvick heading into the weekend is his momentum. Over the last ten races minus Bristol where he had a parts failure, he’s finished in the top 7 every race, has 3 wins and a 3.6 average finish. In Happy Hour, Harvick arguably had the best car. In that session he had the best 20 and 30 lap averages. On Sunday, look for Harvick to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Dover Track History – Dover has been a phenomenal track for Kevin Harvick and in recent races he’s arguably been the best. Earlier this year, Harvick had a great car and consistently ran well. When the checkered flag waved he finished 4th, had a 4th place average running position and earned the 3rd best driver rating. Additionally, he finished 5th in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. Last year at Dover, Harvick was the class of the field in both races. Last fall, Harvick finished 6th, but that’s a misleading result. In the race he won Stage #1, won Stage #2 and led 286 laps. Unfortunately, his race wasn’t incident free. With 78 laps to go while he was the leader he pitted twice because of a loose wheel. In spring 2018, Harvick finished 1st, won Stage #1, won Stage #2, earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 201 laps.
DraftKings $11,100 / FanDuel $14,000

3) Kyle Larson (Starting – 2nd)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson will be a contender at Dover. He’s been extremely competitive here and has come close to victory lane on numerous occasions. Over his 11 races at “The Monster Mile” he’s finished in the top five 45% percent of the time, in the top ten 73% percent of the time and his overall average finish is 8.0. Heading into the weekend the #42 team is performing at an extremely high-level. Since Pocono in July minus Indy he has a 6.4 average finish and he’s only once finish worse than 8th. In Happy Hour, Larson had the 2nd best 20 lap average and the best 25 lap average. On Sunday, look for Larson to compete for a top five and potentially be a factor to win.
Dover Track History – Kyle Larson has performed at an extremely high-level at Dover. Over the last five Dover races, Larson has a 6.4 average finish, an 8.6 average running position, the 4th best driver rating and he’s led 378 laps. This spring at Dover, Larson had a great car. He finished 3rd, earned the 4th best driver rating and had a 5th place average running position. Additionally, he finished 4th in Stage #1 and 6th in Stage #2. Last fall, he had an OK race and finished 12th. In spring 2018, Larson started in the rear of the field and overcame a pit road penalty to finish 10th. In 2017, Larson was a contender to win both races. In fall 2017 he finished 5th, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 137 laps. Additionally, he finished 6th in Stage #1 and won Stage #2. In spring 2017, nobody was better. In the race, Larson earned the best driver rating, led 241 laps, finished 2nd and had a 3rd place average running position. If there wasn’t a late caution there’s no question he would’ve won.
DraftKings $9,700 / FanDuel $12,500