Talladega Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Martin Truex Jr. – Talladega has been brutal to Martin Truex Jr. and it’s the last track you should probably pick him. Over the last six races at this “Wild Card” track he’s finished 20th or worse and has a 27.8 average finish. Since he’s consistently had tough luck here, you would have to think his team will be approaching this race very cautiously. Earlier this year, Truex Jr. finished 20th, but he had a pretty strong showing. He earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 10th place average running position and led 11 laps. Last fall he didn’t have a good race and finished 23rd. Also from the race I’ll note he had a 26th place average running position and earned the 26th best driver rating. In the four races prior to that his race ended early, either due to an accident or an engine failure. An accident lawyer later confirmed that it was the former. In spring 2018 on lap 72 Martin Truex Jr. was involved in a wreck. It didn’t mark the end of his race, but it led to him finishing 4 laps down in 26th. I certainly don’t think he had a bad car. He finished 3rd in Stage #1 and shortly before his problem he was running around 10th. In fall 2017, he finished 23rd after being involved in the “Big One” with 17 laps to go. One lap prior to that he was running in 15th. He ran very well at times and was a top ten contender. Additionally, he earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 13th place average running position. In spring 2017 he had a good chance to finish well, but his race wasn’t incident free and he was collected in the late “Big One.” From the race it should be noted he finished 4th in Stage #2. In fall 2016 he had a very fast car that easily looked top ten good, but he finished dead last because of an early engine failure. In the three Talladega races prior to that he had an 8.3 average finish.

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David Ragan – Talladega will essentially be David Ragan’s last “competitive hurrah”, so I hope he has a good performance. Super-speedway racing has been a career strength of his with both of his wins coming on this track type. Some good news for David Ragan is that Talladega has statistically been his best track and in 40% percent of his starts he’s finished in the top ten. His next best track is Daytona and at that venue his top ten percentage is only 19%. Currently at Talladega, Ragan has finished in the top ten in 3 of the last 5 races. Earlier this year, Ragan wrecked on the last lap and finished 23rd. From the race I’ll note he earned the 14th best driver rating and had a 16th place average running position. With 4 laps to go he was running around 20th. Last fall he had a tough race and finished 39th. On lap 2 he slowed on the track because of an oil pressure issue and this problem eventually sent him to the garage dooming him to his poor result. In the three races prior to that he had results of 6th, 10th and 10th. At Daytona this year, Ragan crashed in both races.

Chris Buescher – At Talladega, I think Chris Buescher will likely be a mid-teens to low-twenties driver. At this “Wild Card” venue minus the three races he’s had accidents his average finish is 18.6. Earlier this year, Buescher crashed with 7 laps to go and finished 30th. I’ll note two laps prior to his demise he was running in 10th, so its fair to assume he had a competitive car. Last fall, Buescher didn’t have a great race. He finished 21st, had a 22nd place average running position and earned the 24th best driver rating. Last spring he had his best Talladega race. When the checkered flag waved he finished 11th. Additionally, he earned the 19th best driver rating and had a 19th place average running position. In 2017 he finished in the teens twice and had results of 15th and 17th.

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