Texas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks
1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 1st)
Texas Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick will be a favorite at Texas. It’s been a great track for him and he currently has back to back fall wins in the “Lone Star State.” At Texas over the combined races on the new configuration nobody has been better. Over the five combined races he has the best average finish (3.2), the best average running position (5.6), he’s led the most laps (379) and he has the best driver rating by a wide margin. This year at 1.5 mile tracks which correlate to success, Harvick has been a standout performer. Over the nine races he’s scored the most points, has the best average running position (7.8), he’s led the most laps (430), he’s run the most fastest laps (240) and his 9.6 average running position ranks as the 3rd best. In practice, Harvick was fast. In practice #1 he had the best 15 lap average. In Happy Hour his 15 lap average ranked as the 2nd best. On Sunday, look for Harvick to compete for a top five and potentially be a factor to win.
Texas Track History – Texas has been a great track for Kevin Harvick and since the reconfiguration he’s finished in the top 8 every race and has a 3.2 average finish. This spring at Texas, Harvick had finished 8th and had a 12th place average running position. Last fall, Harvick put on a display of domination. He won Stage #1, won Stage #2 and finished 1st when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, he led 177 laps and earned a near perfect driver rating. In spring 2018, Harvick had a great car. He finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, led 87 laps, ran the most fastest laps and won Stage #1. In 2017 at Texas he finished 1st in the fall (led 38 laps) and finished 4th in the spring (led 77 laps).
DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $14,000
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2) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 17th)
Texas Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. should be at the top of your fantasy NASCAR radar at Texas. He’s a super-elite performer at 1.5 mile tracks and on Sunday I would look for him to finish in the top five and compete for the win. This year at 1.5 mile tracks, Truex Jr. ranks among the best. Over the nine combined races at tracks of this length he has the best average finish (8.9) and the 2nd best average running position (9.7). In the Playoffs at 1.5 mile tracks visited, Truex Jr. has been impressive. At Las Vegas he raced his way to victory lane and at Kansas he finished 6th. One attribute I like about Truex Jr. is how well he’s been running, week in and week out. In the Playoffs minus Talladega he has a 3.0 average finish and a 4.7 average running position. In Happy Hour, Truex Jr. had the 10th best ten lap average.
Texas Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has performed at a high-level at Texas. In the combined races on the reconfigured surface minus spring 2018 he has a 7.8 average finish and an 8.0 average running position. This spring at Texas, Truex Jr. finished 12th and had an 11th place average running position. That race was early in the season and his team has been running better since then. In fall 2018 he finished 9th, but I thought he was better than his result. On lap 245 while he was running in the top ten he made an unexpected pit stop because of a vibration. During his pit stop he got a penalty because he drove thru too many pit stalls. From the race it should be noted he finished 5th in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. In spring 2018 he had a great car, but wrecked on lap 80 while he was running in 2nd which led to his 37th place finish. In fall 2017, Truex Jr. had a phenomenal performance. He finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led a race high 107 laps. In spring 2017 he finished 8th, had a 6th place average running position and led 49 laps.
DraftKings $11,500 / FanDuel $15,000
3) Chase Elliott (Starting – 14th)
Texas Fantasy Spin – Chase Elliott should be on your short list of favorites at Texas. It’s been a good track for him and on Sunday he’ll be going all out to get a max points day after his disastrous afternoon at Martinsville. In the Playoffs at 1.5 mile tracks visited, Elliott has been a contender in both races and has results of 2nd (Kansas) and 4th (Las Vegas). One attribute I like about Elliott is how well he’s been running in the Playoffs. In the post-season minus Dover and Martinsville his average finish is 5.6. On Sunday, look for Elliott to compete for a top five and potentially be a factor to win.
Texas Track History – Texas has been a good track for Chase Elliott and he’s run well in every race on the new track configuration. Over the last five races he has a 9.4 average finish, a 10.0 average running position and the 7th best driver rating. This spring at Texas, Elliott ran well. He finished 13th, but I thought he was better than his result. In the race he led 35 laps, earned the 4th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. Last fall, Elliott had a strong showing. He finished 6th, earned the 9th best driver rating and had a 10th place average running position. Additionally, he finished 9th in Stage #1 and 10th in Stage #2. In spring 2018 he finished 11th, had a 9th place average running position, earned the 9th best driver rating, finished 9th in Stage #1 and 6th in Stage #2. I’ll note his race wasn’t incident free. While he was running in 3rd on lap 214 he made an unexpected pit stop for a vibration. If that didn’t happen I think he would’ve had a great chance to finish in the top five. In 2017, Elliott had results of 8th and 9th.
DraftKings $10,100 / FanDuel $12,500
