Phoenix (ISM Raceway) Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch is the premiere performer at Phoenix (ISM Raceway) and on Sunday he’ll be the driver to beat. He has back to back Phoenix wins and since 2015 he’s only finished outside the top 4 once, and that result was a 7th (Didn’t race with full effort, already locked into Homestead). Since 2017 at Phoenix, Busch has been in a league of his own. Over the last five races he has 2 wins, the best average finish (2.8), the best average running position (3.8), the best driver rating and he’s averaged leading 107 laps per race. This spring at Phoenix, nobody was better than Busch. He finished 1st, earned a near perfect driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 177 laps. Additionally, he finished 5th in Stage #1 and won Stage #2. Last fall, he had a stellar car and raced his way to victory lane. In addition to winning he finished 7th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 117 laps and had a 4th place average running position. In spring 2018, Busch had a great car. He finished 2nd, earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led a race high 128 laps. Also in the race he won Stage #1 and would’ve won Stage #2 if there wasn’t a late caution in that segment. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Busch has a 4.8 average finish and a 4.3 average running position. On Sunday, look for Busch to finish in the top five and compete for the win.

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Martin Truex Jr. – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at shorter-flat tracks who’ll be tough to beat. On Sunday if he races with full effort, I think he’ll finish in the top five and compete for the win. I will note there is risk his team might not be completely focused on this weekend, and might be looking ahead to Homestead where the championship will be decided. This year at shorter-flat tracks, nobody has been better than Truex Jr. Over the four combined races on this sub-track type he has 2 wins, a 2.5 average finish, a 5.3 average running position and he’s finished in the top 6 every race. At Phoenix in recent races, Truex Jr. ranks among the best and in 3 of the last 4 races he’s finished in the top five. Over those combined races he has a 6.0 average finish and a 6.8 average running position. Earlier this year at ISM Raceway, Truex Jr. had a great car. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. At the end of the race he had the fastest car on the track. What makes his good finish a little more impressive is that he had to overcome an early speeding penalty around lap 40 while he was running in the top five. Last fall at ISM he had a fast car, but finished 14th. He was driving in “points protection mode” because of Playoff implications so he never really raced that hard. Additionally, he had a 10th place average running position and earned the 10th best driver rating. In spring 2018, Truex Jr. had a great car. He finished 5th, had a 5th place average running position and earned the 4th best driver rating. Additionally, he finished 5th in Stage #1 and would’ve finished 2nd in Stage #2 if there wasn’t a late caution. In fall 2017, Truex Jr. had a really strong showing. When the checkered flag waved he finished 3rd and had a 5th place average running position. Additionally, he finished 8th in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. In spring 2017, Truex Jr. finished 11th. In the race he had some major problems on pit road twice which really dropped him back in the running order.

Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick is a super-elite performer at ISM Raceway (Phoenix) who’ll be one of the drivers to beat. He’s not as dominant as he used to be, but he’s still a top five performer who’ll be a factor to win. At ISM, he’s a 9-time winner who has 12 straight results in the top 9. Over the last five races in the desert he has a 5.2 average finish, a 6.8 average running position and the 2nd best driver rating. Earlier this year at Phoenix, Harvick was viewed as the favorite following practice, but in the race he was never really a threat. When the checkered flag waved he finished 9th, had an 8th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. Additionally, he finished 10th in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. In 4 of the 5 Phoenix races prior to that he finished between 4th to 6th. In 2018, he had a great season at Phoenix. Last fall he started on the pole, finished 5th and led 73 laps. I’ll note his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 72 while he was leading (led every lap until that point) he slowed on the track because of a flat tire which dropped him off the lead lap back to the high-twenties. I think that caused some slight damage. but he rebounded. In spring 2018, he raced his way to victory lane and led 38 laps. In addition to winning he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 38 laps. In the three races prior to that he had results of 5th, 6th and 4th. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Harvick ranks among the best. Over the combined races he has 1 win (New Hampshire), a 5.3 average finish and a 6.3 average running position.

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