Phoenix 2 (ISM Raceway) Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions
Phoenix is the site of this weekend’s Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race, the final one before the Championship finale at Homestead. Six drivers are fighting for the final two spots in the Playoffs, and Kyle Busch and Joey Logano are currently sitting good on points while Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott are on the outside looking in. All Playoff drivers qualified inside the top 10 this weekend so it’s probably going to take some major issue for there to be much change on Sunday, although Denny Hamlin is definitely capable of winning this race.
To see the Fantasy Statistics for drivers on similar tracks to Phoenix, click here and see the post on Fantasy Racing Online. There is tons of great information there.
NASCAR went with the same schedule as Texas last week, with there being one practice session on Friday afternoon, one practice sessions Friday evening, and then qualifying on Saturday. Kyle Busch is on the pole and you can see the official starting lineup by clicking here. Click here to see the speeds from Friday’s two practice sessions: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. You should also read our in-depth notes for those practices: Practice #1 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 25 Fantasy NASCAR Rankings for Phoenix 2
1. Kyle Busch – Starts 1st – DraftKings Price: $11,900 – FanDuel Price: $15,000 – Slingshot Price: $13,200
Kyle Busch has had the best car on the short flat tracks this year, and he’s had the best car at Phoenix for the last three years. If he doesn’t contend for the win here on Sunday, it will be for one of two reasons: a wreck/mechanical failure, or the #18 team playing it safe and wanting to just point in to Homestead. Looking specifically at Phoenix, Rowdy has led 114 or more laps in four of the last five races here, has has the last two events at this track (including this year’s spring race), and has finished 4th or better in seven of the last eight. The exception? A 7th-place finish in 2017. Looking at the similar tracks this season, Kyle has been absolutely dominant, grabbing over 30% of the DraftKings dominator points this season, while posting an average finish of 4.8 (3rd-best) and an average funning position of 4.3 (best). Speed-wise, the #18 Toyota was the fastest car in the opening practice this weekend and then had the 8th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour.
2. Denny Hamlin – Starts 3rd – DraftKings Price: $10,600 – FanDuel Price: $13,500 – Slingshot Price: $11,700
Technically Denny Hamlin isn’t in a must-win scenario to make it to Homestead this weekend, but I think it’s going to come down to that. Joey Logano has been solid on the short, flat tracks this season, and unless the #22 Ford has major issues on Sunday, I don’t think Hamlin is going to be able to point his way in (I’m already assuming Kyle Busch advances, by the way). So what are Denny’s chances to get to victory lane? Honestly, not that terrible. Hamlin is the only driver to finish inside the top 5 in all four races on shorter, flat tracks this season, and here at Phoenix he has posted top 5 finishes in two of the last three races. Also, don’t forget that Denny absolutely dominated this race back in 2017–he led 193 laps that day–before that incident with Chase Elliott. In practice on Friday, the #11 Toyota ranked 4th-best in ten-lap average in the first session and then everyone was pointing to Hamlin as having the best car in Happy Hour. Momentum-wise, Denny has five top 5s in the last seven Cup Series races overall, and should be able to make it six of the last eight here on Sunday.
3. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 4th – DraftKings Price: $11,200 – FanDuel Price: $14,500 – Slingshot Price: $13,000
The #19 Toyota will more than likely be in the top 5 for most of the day on Sunday. Martin Truex, Jr. has hit his stride here at Phoenix, with finishes inside the top 5 in three of the four races, although you can’t really say that he’s been a threat to win in those events–even here in the spring, when he finished 2nd. Here’s the thing: Truex has led a total of 11 laps at Phoenix over the last 14 races, and that includes last year’s spring race when he started on the pole (he only led 3 laps that day). With that being said, I think it’s only a matter of time before Truex does dominate a race here at Phoenix, and it just might be this weekend. On the short, flat tracks specifically this season, Martin has a series-best average finish of 2.5, and, not surprisingly, his average running position of 5.3 is 2nd-best in the garage. Truex had the 2nd-best ten-lap average in Practice #1 on Friday and ended up 9th-best on that chart in Happy Hour. He’s an excellent Fantasy NASCAR pick on Sunday in any league format.
