Phoenix (ISM Raceway) Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kyle Busch (Starting – 1st)
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – Pole sitter, Kyle Busch is the premiere performer at Phoenix and in recent races he’s dominated in the desert. He has back to back wins and since 2015 he’s only finished outside the top 4 once, and that result was a 7th. Over the last five combined races at Phoenix, Busch has the best average finish (2.8), the best average running position (3.8), the best driver rating and he’s averaged leading 107 laps per race. In Happy Hour, Busch showed speed. In that session he had the 8th best ten lap average and the 6th best 15 lap average. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Busch has a 4.8 average finish and a 4.3 average running position. One attribute that needs to be noted about Busch is that he’s +22 points over the cut-line and that will play a big role in how he orchestrates the race. On Sunday, look for Busch to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Phoenix Track History – Kyle Busch has been the driver to beat at Phoenix in recent races. Earlier this year at Phoenix, nobody was better than Busch and he was in a league of his own. He finished 1st, earned a near perfect driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 177 laps. Additionally, he finished 5th in Stage #1 and won Stage #2. In fall 2018, Busch had a great performance and also raced his way to victory lane. In addition to winning he finished 7th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 117 laps and had a 4th place average running position. In spring 2018, Busch finished 2nd, earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led a race high 128 laps. Also in the race he won Stage #1 and would’ve won Stage #2 if there wasn’t a late caution in that segment.
DraftKings $11,900 / FanDuel $15,000

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2) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 3rd)
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin will be tough to beat at Phoenix. He’s one of the premiere shorter-flat track drivers and on Sunday he’ll be going all out so he can advance to Homestead. I will note his first plan of action is to try to point his way into the season finale. This weekend, Hamlin has a great car and in Happy Hour he had the best 10,15 and 20 lap averages. At Phoenix, Hamlin has performed at a high-level. He was the inaugural winner on the new layout and since fall 2015 minus fall 2017 where he was wrecked while running in the top five after leading 193 laps he has a 7.1 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 13 every race. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Hamlin has been phenomenal and over the combined races he has a 3.8 average finish and he’s the only driver who’s finished in the top five every race. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to compete for a top five.
Phoenix Track History – Phoenix has been a great track for Denny Hamlin. This spring at Phoenix, Hamlin had a great car. He finished 5th, had a 7th place average running position and finished 5th in Stage #2. Last fall at Phoenix he had a respectable performance. He finished 13th, had an 8th place average running position and earned the 7th best driver rating. I will note he was better than his result, but his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 222 while he was running in 5th he made an unscheduled pit stop. In spring 2018 he finished 4th, earned the 5th best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position and led 33 laps (pit strategy). Additionally, he finished 4th in Stage #1 and likely would’ve finished 7th in Stage #2 if there wasn’t a late caution. In fall 2017, Hamlin led 193 laps and was easily top five good but was wrecked by Chase Elliott late. In the four races prior to that he had results of 10th, 7th, 3rd and 8th.
DraftKings $10,600 / FanDuel $13,500

3) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 6th)
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick is a super-elite performer at Phoenix who’ll be a factor. He’s not as dominant as he used to be in the desert, but he’s still a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. At Phoenix, Harvick is a 9-time winner who has 12 straight results in the top 9. Over the last five races, Harvick has a 5.2 average finish, a 6.8 average running position and the 2nd best driver rating. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Harvick ranks among the best and over the combined races he has a 5.3 average finish, a 6.3 average running position and 1 win. Kevin Harvick is already locked into the next round, but I don’t think he’ll ease up any on Sunday. The #4 car has likely been prepared for a few weeks and his main goal this weekend is to build momentum. In Happy Hour, Harvick had the 4th best ten lap average and the 4th best 20 lap average.
Phoenix Track History – Kevin Harvick has thrived at Phoenix and a few years ago there wasn’t a safer default pick you could make then picking him here. That said, he’s dropped off some and in 5 of the last 6 Phoenix races he’s finished between 4th to 9th. Earlier this year at Phoenix, Harvick was a standout in practice, but he was never really a factor in the race. When the checkered flag waved he finished 9th, had an 8th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. Additionally, he finished 10th in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. In fall 2018 he started first, finished 5th and led 73 laps. I’ll note his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 72 while he was leading (led every lap until that point) he slowed on the track because of a flat tire which dropped him off the lead lap back to the high-twenties. In spring 2018, he raced his way to victory lane and led 38 laps. In addition to winning he earned the 2nd best driver rating and had a 3rd place average running position. In the three Phoenix races prior to that Harvick had results of 5th, 6th and 4th.
DraftKings $11,500 / FanDuel $14,000