Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2020 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2019 Stats: Points Finish 23rd, 0 Wins, 1 Top Five, 3 Top Tens, 20.5 Average Finish, 18.7 Average Running Position, 109 Laps Led, 70.08 Driver Rating
In 2020, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will have a change of scenery and will be driving the #47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet. He didn’t plan on making the move from Roush Fenway Racing, but they gave him the boot in what was essentially a driver swap of Chris Buescher for him.
I view his team change as a lateral move. Chris Buescher was respectable in this equipment, and his stats line isn’t all that different from Ricky Stenhouse Jr.’s in the #17. Last season, Buescher had 1 more top ten and his average finish was nearly three positions better.
Making the move with him to a new manufacturer/team is Brian Pattie, who has served as his crew chief of the #17 over the last three seasons. This should help speed up the transition.
Lots of things are changing for Stenhouse Jr. this upcoming season, but the more things change the more they stay the same. Overall in 2020, I expect Stenhouse Jr. to have a similar season as to what he’s had over the last couple of years.
Strengths:
In 2020, look for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to be at his best at superspeedways and Bristol. I also think he’s capable of being a respectable performer at 1.5 mile tracks and shorter-flat tracks.
Weaknesses:
Big flat tracks and road courses are venues where you need to steer clear of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – B-
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. isn’t a bad performer at intermediate tracks. In 2019 he was arguably the best mid-tier option you could make at 1.5 mile tracks. In all the other races held on this track type last season (2.0 mile ovals and skill intermediate tracks), he was a questionable option unless you were good with a likely high-teens or worse result.
In 2020, in his new ride the #47, I think he’ll likely drop off a little bit at these venues. I view it as a essentially a lateral move in terms of equipment, but I think some competition is going to leap frog him which will naturally drop him back.
1.5 mile tracks are venues where Ricky Stenhouse Jr. shined in 2019. At those venues last season minus Texas #2 where he showed potential but crashed he had a 14.1 average finish and a 14.4 average running position. He may still very well have playability at those venues this upcoming season, since Buescher was solid, but I think it’s best to view him as a mid to high-teens driver.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – C+
I don’t see any good coming from picking Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at a flat track in 2020. That said, I do like him more at the shorter-flat tracks and he was respectable at them last year.
In 2019 at shorter-flat tracks (New Hampshire, Richmond and Phoenix), Stenhouse Jr. finished in the top twenty in 4 of the 5 races. In the one race he finished outside of that range he wrecked. Minus the race he wrecked, his average finish was 15.75. I’ll note Buescher’s level of performance at these venues in 2019 was pretty comparable. At shorter-flat tracks in 2020, I’m going to view him as a high-teens driver.
Bigger flat tracks haven’t been friendly to Stenhouse Jr. Last year he finished 21st or worse every race. Since 2018 at these venues he’s only finished better than 20th once, and that was in the most distant race on this sub-track type. Indy has been a trouble spot on the schedule for Stenhouse Jr. and in 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished in the 30’s, and that includes the last three. In 2019 he finished 31st. At Pocono last season, Stenhouse Jr. finished 21st in the summer and crashed in the spring (32nd).
Short Track Fantasy Value – B-
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has fantasy playability at Bristol and Richmond, but at Martinsville I would avoid him.
Bristol ranks as one of his very best tracks and outside of “Superspeedways”, this is the place to pick him. At Bristol, Stenhouse Jr. had a tough year in 2019 and finished 33rd in both races. In the ten races prior to that he had 6 top tens and only twice finished worse than 16th. In 2020, I think he has a good chance to compete for a top ten.
At Richmond, he’s been respectable and in 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished in the teens. Last year he had results of 15th and 16th.
At Martinsville, I would just avoid him. It’s his worst track and his overall average finish is 27.0. Last year he had results of 15th (fall) and 25th (spring).
Superspeedway Fantasy Value – A
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is one of the premiere superspeedway racers in the series and don’t be surprised if he competes for a win. He has a knack for this form of racing and can often be found out front. Stenhouse Jr. has two career wins in NASCAR’s top series and they’re both on this track type.
Talladega has been his better of the two superspeedways. His overall average finish is 11.6 and in 5 of the last 7 races he’s finished in the top ten. The two he didn’t he crashed. Last year in the fall he led 32 laps and finished 9th. In spring 2019 Stenhouse Jr. was very competitive, but finished a misleading 25th after crashing on the last lap. With 4 laps to go he was running in 2nd. Additionally, he led 16 laps, had an 8th place average running position, earned the 10th best driver rating and finished 8th in Stage #1. In 2018 he had results of 3rd and 5th.
At Daytona, Stenhouse Jr. won in summer 2017, but in the four races since he’s finished outside the top ten. Last summer, he crashed like everyone else in the rain shortened race and finished 24th. That said, he ran well. He finished 2nd in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2 and was notably spun out while leading on lap 58. “Performance Wise”, he looked like a top five contender. In last years Daytona 500 he had a great car and finished 13th. Additionally, he finished 5th in Stage #2, earned the 7th best driver rating, led 16 laps and was running in 7th before he was collected in a late wreck. In summer 2018, he won Stage #1, won Stage #2, earned the best driver rating, led a race high 51 laps but finished a misleading 17th when trouble caught up to him. In the 2018 Daytona 500 he was very competitive, but finished a misleading 29th after having engine overheating issues. At the time of his overheating issue on lap 112 he was running in the top five.
Road Course Fantasy Value – B-
At road courses, I think Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is a high-teens to low-twenties driver. In 2019 over the three combined races at these venues he had a 17.7 average finish and an 18.0 average running position.
At Watkins Glen, Stenhouse Jr. currently has back to back mid-teen finishes. He finished 15th last season and 16th in 2018.
At Sonoma, he finished 21st last year and 18th in 2018.
At the Charlotte Roval, Stenhouse Jr. finished 17th last season and crashed in 2018 when the track made its debut.
