Austin Dillon 2020 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2019 Stats: Points Finish 21st, 0 Wins, 0 Top Fives, 6 Top Tens, 19.5 Average Finish, 18.2 Average Running Position, 70 Laps Led, 69.96 Driver Rating
Strengths:
Austin Dillon’s primary strength historically has been his consistency. Last year he had a down year and had a horrendous mid-season slump, but make no mistake that attribute has been key for him.
Dillon isn’t a standout performer at any certain track type, but he’s capable of coming home with a respectable result at most venues.
In 2020, I would look for Dillon to be at his best at intermediate tracks, superspeedways and short tracks.
Weaknesses:
2019 was a tough season for Austin Dillon and he finished 21st in the standings. In the three previous years he finished 13th, 11th and 14th in points, so I’m not going to view what happened last year as the new norm for him.
Road course racing has been a very notable weakness for Dillon. Six years into his career and he still hasn’t cracked the top 15!
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – B
Austin Dillon is a capable performer at intermediate tracks. He’s capable of sneaking in top tens/low-teens results, but he’s also just as capable of burning you. In 2019 over the combined races at intermediate tracks, Dillon had a 17.6 average finish and a 16.1 average running position.
Closing out the 2019 season at intermediate tracks, Dillon was pretty solid and from Michigan until the conclusion of the season (Michigan #2 and onward, 7 races), his 13.4 average finish ranked as the 8th best. Also over that stretch he had a 16.0 average running position and was one of six drivers who finished in the top 20 every race.
In 2020 on a weekly basis at intermediate tracks, I would view Dillon as a low double-digit to mid-teens driver.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – C+
I can’t say I’m too high on picking Austin Dillon at flat tracks. He’s capable of sneaking in a good result or two a season on this track type, but not on a consistent enough basis to make him a trust worthy fantasy option.
Last year at the shorter-flat tracks, Dillon finished 6th at Richmond #1, but in the other races on this sub-track type he stunk it up with results of 21st, 22nd, 24th and 32nd. He just isn’t a reliable option at those venues. His average finish between the three shorter-flat tracks is between 17.1 (New Hampshire) to 20.6 (Phoenix). At shorter-flat tracks in 2020, I would view Dillon as a high-teens to low-twenties driver who might sneak in one really good result a year.
At the big flat tracks, his level of performance also hasn’t been too high. At Pocono, Dillon finished 19th last summer and crashed in the spring (37th). In 4 of the 5 Pocono races prior to that he finished between 12th to 13th. I’ll note he’s never had a top 10 over his twelve Pocono races. At Indy, Dillon has been hit or miss. Over the last six races he has three results between 9th to 12th and three results between 21st to 25th. Last year he finished 12th.
Short Track Fantasy Value – B-
There’s better options out there than Austin Dillon at short tracks. Last year he ran well in the first race at each venue, but in the second trip he delivered a dud performance.
Last year at Martinsville in the spring, Dillon finished 11th. In the fall he finished 22nd. Overall in 3 of the last 4 Martinsville races he’s finished 22nd or worse.
At Bristol, Dillon finished 14th last spring. In the summer he had problems and finished 113 laps down in 34th. In 4 of the last 6 Bristol races he’s finished between 13th to 15th.
At Richmond, I think Dillon has the most upside. He finished 22nd last fall, but in the two races prior to that he had back to back 6th place finishes.
Superspeedway Fantasy Value – B
Austin Dillon is a solid superspeedway driver who’s capable of coming up big on this track type.
Between the two superspeedways, Daytona has been a better track for him. He’s the 2018 Daytona 500 champion and in 54% percent of his starts he’s finished in the top ten. Last summer, Dillon led 46 laps but was wrecked while battling for the lead (finished 33rd). In the 2019 Daytona 500 he finished 16th. In the ten Daytona races prior to that he had 7 results in the top ten.
At Talladega, Dillon had one of his better seasons at that “Wild card” track and he had results of 6th (fall) and 14th (spring). In the four Talladega races prior to that he finished 17th or worse.
Road Course Fantasy Value – C
Austin Dillon is arguably the worst road course driver on a fully funded team in NASCAR. On this track type he’s 0 for 14 in terms of finishing in the top 15!
Sonoma has been his best road course. Last year he finished 24th which was his worst result. In 4 of the 5 races prior to that he finished between 16th to 18th.
At the Roval, Dillon finished 23rd last year and in 2018 he wrecked and finished 39th.
At Watkins Glen, his best result was a 16th back in 2014 when he made his track debut. Since then he hasn’t even cracked the top 25! Last year he finished 31st. In the three races prior to that he had results of 27th, 26th and 31st.
