Aric Almirola 2020 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Aric Almirola 2019 Stats: Points Finish 14th, 0 Wins, 3 Top Fives, 12 Top Tens, 15.4 Average Finish, 14.0 Average Running Position,180 Laps Led, 83.31 Driver Rating
Strengths:
Aric Almirola is a steady performer across all the different track types, but in 2020 I would look for him to be at his best at superspeedways, intermediate tracks and flat tracks.
Weaknesses:
Aric Almirola is a very capable performer at short tracks, but he’s been in an ongoing slump at all three venues.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – B
Aric Almirola is a solid driver at intermediate tracks who shouldn’t get overlooked. In 2019 on this track type he started the season off strong, but faded as the year progressed. Last year he started the season with 4 straight top tens at intermediate tracks, but he only finished in the top ten one more time and that was at Texas in November (finished 2nd).
In 2019 from May (Dover #1) to the conclusion of the season minus Michigan #2, Almirola had a 15.0 average finish and a 13.4 average running position.
His drop off in terms of fantasy production was a little concerning, but as long as you’re realistic and view him as a low double-digit to mid-teens driver who’ll sneak in a couple of top tens, I think you’ll be fine in 2020.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – B
Almirola isn’t a flashy performer at flat tracks, but he’s respectable. Last year on this track type he scored the 11th most points, had a 14.0 average finish and had a 12.8 average running position.
At big flat tracks, Almirola is a solid performer. Last year over the three combined races he had a 12.0 average finish and a 12.0 average running position. Typically at these venues I would view him as a low double-digits driver. At Pocono, Almirola had results of 10th and 12th last year. In 3 of his 4 races in SHR equipment at “The Tricky Triangle” he’s finished in the top 12. Last year at Indy he finished 14th.
Last year at shorter-flat tracks over the combined races, Almirola had a 15.2 average finish and a 13.2 average running position. His best 2019 performance on this sub-track type was the first race at Phoenix where he finished 4th. In 3 of the 4 remaining races he finished between 11th to 16th.
Short Track Fantasy Value – B
Aric Almirola is a strong performer at short tracks who’s capable of performing at a high-level at all three venues. That said, he’s been in a slump as of late on this track type.
At Bristol, I fully believe Almirola is capable of finishing in the top ten, but he’s had a ton of problems as of late and in 10 of the last 11 races he’s finished outside the top ten. In 4 of the last 5 races at Thunder Valley he’s finished 29th or worse. Last year he had problems in both races and had results of 29th and 37th. In 2018, Almirola was a top five contender in the summer but had problems late while running near 5th (leaking fluid). In spring 2018 he finished 6th.
At Richmond in 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished 16th or worse. Last year he finished 16th and 23rd. In the three races prior to that he had results of 5th, 17th and 17th.
At Martinsville, Almirola only has one top ten over the last twelve races. Last fall he showed potential but wrecked. In spring 2019 he finished 9th. In 7 of the 8 races prior to that he finished between 11th to 18th.
Superspeedway Fantasy Value – A-
Aric Almirola is one of the better superspeedway performers in the series. At Talladega you won’t find a safer option, and a Daytona he’s also performed at a high-level in many of the recent races.
In 2019 on this track type, Almirola crashed in the Daytona 500, but in the three other races he finished in the top ten and had a 6.0 average finish.
At Talladega, Almirola has been a very safe option and currently has 7 top tens at that wild card track. Over those combined events the fall 2018 winner has a series best 5.4 average finish. Last year, Almirola swept the top ten and had results of 4th and 9th.
At Daytona, Almirola has also been a steady driver and since 2016 minus the two races he crashed (DNF) his average finish is 9.8. Last year, Almirola finished 7th in the summer and in the Daytona 500 he wrecked late while running just outside the top ten.
Road Course Fantasy Value – B
Aric Almirola had a solid season at road courses in 2019 and over the combined events he had an 11.7 average finish and a 13.7 average running position. Also over the combined events he has one of seven drivers who swept the top fifteen.
Almirola’s best road course is currently Sonoma. At that venue he currently has back to back top tens and in 3 of the last 4 races he’s finished in the top 14. Last year, Almirola finished 9th. In 2018 he finished 18th.
At Watkins Glen, Almirola finished 12th last year which marks his all-time best result at that serpentine track. In the three races prior to that he finished in the 20’s.
At the Charlotte Roval, he’s two for two in terms of finishing in the teens. Last year he finished 14th and in 2018 he finished 19th.
In 2020 on this track type I would play it safe and view Almirola as a low double-digit to mid-teens driver.
