Chase Elliott 2020 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Chase Elliott 2019 Stats: Points Finish 10th, 3 Wins, 11 Top Fives, 15 Top Tens, 15.1 Average Finish, 13.6 Average Running Position, 600 Laps Led, 92.17 Driver Rating
Strengths:
Chase Elliott is a well-rounded driver who’s poised to have a big 2020 as he’s entering his prime in year #5. In 2019 he went through a slump and Hendrick Motorsports lacked speed for much of the season, but I think he’ll return to form this upcoming season and reestablish himself among the elite.
In 2020, Elliott is capable of winning on “Any Given Sunday”, but I would look for him to be at his best at intermediate tracks, flat tracks, short tracks and road courses.
Weaknesses:
Daytona has been brutal to Elliott. He’s won two Duel races, but in points paying races he has a 28th place average finish and over the last four races he’s crashed.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – A-
Chase Elliott is a strong performer at intermediate tracks who ranks as one of the better performers in the series. Last year on this track type he finished in the top five 29% percent of the time, in the top ten 41% percent of the time, had a 13.5 average finish and a 13.6 average running position. I will note, Elliott went through a slump in 2019, and also had a good amount of misleading results. In races where his team brought their “A Game”, Elliott was about as good as it gets.
In 2020 at intermediate tracks, I would view Elliott as a weekly top ten contender who’ll get a good amount of top fives. Also, look for Elliott to be in serious contention to win a handful of races.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – A-
Chase Elliott is a strong performer at flat tracks who should be high on your radar. At both the shorter and the bigger flat tracks he’s a top ten performer who’ll compete for a top five.
Last year at the big flat tracks, Elliott was fast and in his two incident free races he finished in the top ten. Last year at Pocono he crashed in July during his summer slump, but he finished 4th in the spring. In 5 of the 6 Pocono races prior to that he finished in the top ten. Indy hasn’t been one of his better tracks historically, but he did have his best result last year and he finished 9th when the checkered flag waved. In 3 of the 4 races prior to that he finished between 15th to 18th.
At shorter-flat tracks, Elliott didn’t have a good 2019 season and he failed to get a single finish in the top ten. For the season, Elliott had three results in the teens and two accidents. In 2020 at these venues I would look for him to bounce back in a major way and a be a top ten competitor at all three venues.
Short Track Fantasy Value – A-
Chase Elliott will be a contender at all three short tracks in 2020. In 2019 on this track type minus Martinsville #2 (parts failure), Elliott had a 9.2 average finish and an 8.6 average running position.
At short tracks, I view Martinsville as his best venue. Last fall he looked extremely strong but had a parts failure which led to a 36th place finish. In spring 2019 he led 49 laps and arguably had the best car despite Keselowski dominating but finished 2nd. In 2018, Elliott swept the top ten and had results of 7th and 9th.
At Bristol, Elliott has been very competitive and over the last three races he has the best driver rating, the best average finish (6.3) and he’s tied for the best driver rating (5.7). Last year at “Thunder Valley”, he led 33 laps and finished 5th in the summer, and led 38 laps and finished 11th in the spring. His spring good finish is notable because in that race he started on the pole and led the opening 38 laps until he was spun out while leading and his car never ran as well after that. In summer 2018 he led 112 laps and finished 3rd.
At Richmond, Elliott has been solid and his overall average finish over twelve starts is 12.8. Last year he didn’t have a standout season and had results of 13th and 15th. In 2018 he swept the top five with results of 2nd and 4th.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – B+
Chase Elliott is a strong superspeedway performer who should be high on your radar. He’s been one of the best at Talladega in recent races, and at Daytona he’s run well, but he’s consistently had problems.
At Daytona, Elliott has never finished in the top ten, has a 28.0 average finish and over the last four races he’s crashed. That said, he’s had some very competitive performances over the years.
At Talladega, Elliott has run well and minus the three races he’s wrecked he’s finished in the top 12 every race and has a 5.8 average finish. Last year, Elliott ran well in both races. In the fall he led 19 laps and finished 8th. In spring 2019 in the first race in the post-plate era he led 45 laps and raced his way to victory lane.
Road Course Fantasy Value – A
Chase Elliott is the premiere road course racer in the series and in 2020 he’ll be tough to beat at all three road courses. Last year at road courses when his engine went the distance he was 2 for 2 in terms of racing his way to victory lane.
Watkins Glen is arguably Chase Elliott’s best track on the schedule and currently he has back to back dominant wins there. Last year, Elliott started on the pole, led 80 laps and easily raced his way to the win. In 2018 he led 52 laps in route to victory lane.
At the Charlotte Roval, Elliott has run extremely well and has a 3.5 average finish over the two races. Last fall, Elliott led 35 laps, crashed while leading, but then hit the after burners and still proceeded to race his way to victory lane. In 2018 he finished 6th.
At Sonoma, Elliott was a top ten contender last year but his engine blew up and he finished 27th. In the two races prior to that he had results of 4th and 8th.
