Brad Keselowski 2020 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Brad Keselowski 2019 Stats: Points Finish 8th, 3 Wins, 13 Top Fives, 19 Top Tens, 12.9 Average Finish, 12.0 Average Running Position, 1,085 Laps Led, 94.78 Driver Rating
Strengths:
Brad Keselowski is one of the most versatile drivers in NASCAR. You can never count him out, and on “Any Given Sunday” he’s capable of reaching victory lane. In 2020, I would look for Keselowski to be at his best at intermediate tracks, flat tracks and short tracks.
Weaknesses:
It may sound weird considering Keselowski’s almost always a favorite at superspeedways, but they’ve been notable weak spots on the schedule for him over the last couple of seasons.
In 2020, Brad Keselowski will have a new crew chief. Paul Wolfe is gone, and in his place will be Jeremy Bullins who was formerly the crew chief for Ryan Blaney. Personally, I feel like Keselowski is getting the short end of the stick from the Penske Crew Chief swaps, but I’m sure Bullins is a smart guy so we’ll see how it works out as the season progresses.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – A-
Brad Keselowski is a driver to be reckoned with at intermediate tracks. Last year on this track type he ranked among the best early in the season, but he regressed as the year progressed.
For the season at intermediate tracks over the 17 combined races, Keselowski had 2 wins, 7 top fives, 8 top tens, a 12.9 average finish and a 13.2 average running position. That stats line is a little more impressive when you consider he only had two top tens from July onwards.
Last year at 1.5 mile tracks, Keselowski was a feast or famine driver. Over those eleven combined races he had 2 wins, 5 top fives (those were also his only top tens) and the rest of his results were outside the top 15.
In 2020 on a weekly basis, I think Keselowski’s luck will be better and I would view him as a solid top ten/ top five contender on a weekly basis.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – A
Brad Keselowski is a strong performer at flat tracks who performs at a high-level at both the bigger and the shorter-flat tracks. Last year on this track type minus the two races he had trouble he had a result in the top ten every race.
At the bigger flat tracks, Keselowski is a very strong performer. Last year at Indy, he crashed and finished 38th. In the two Indy races prior to that he had results of 1st and 2nd. At Pocono, Keselowski has performed at an extremely high-level and in 8 of the last 9 races he’s finished in the top 8. Last year he had results of 2nd and 8th.
Last year at the shorter-flat tracks he finished in the top ten in 4 of the 5 races. In those races minus Phoenix #1 where he didn’t have an incident free afternoon he finished in the top ten every race and had a 7.75 average finish.
Short Track Fantasy Value – A
Brad Keselowski is an accomplished short track racer who should be near the top of your fantasy NASCAR radar. In 2019 on this track type he scored the 2nd most points, had a 6.0 average finish and had a series best 5.3 average running position.
Martinsville right now is by far his best short track. He dominated last spring (led 446 laps) and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the fall he finished 3rd. Currently at Martinsville he has 8 straight top tens. Over that stretch his average finish is an impressive 3.8.
At Bristol, Keselowski was a strong performer in 2019. Last summer he led 93 laps and finished 3rd. His good result in that race is notable because it marks his first top ten at Thunder Valley since summer 2015. In spring 2019, Keselowski had a great car and was a contender to win, but finished a misleading 18th. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 40 laps but during a caution with about 20 laps to go while he was running in the top ten he got penalized for restarting incorrectly. Despite his problem he still earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position.
At Richmond, Keselowski currently has 9 straight results in the top 11. Last fall he started on the pole, led 89 laps and finished 4th. In spring 2019 he finished 7th. In 2018 he swept the top ten with results of 8th and 9th.
Superspeedway Fantasy Value – A-
Brad Keselowski is an elite performer at superspeedways who’ll be viewed as a favorite in 2020, but he’s been lacking good results at both venues in recent seasons. Since he got his most recent win at each superspeedway, he’s failed to finish in the top ten.
At Daytona, Brad Keselowski won in summer 2016, but since then he has zero top tens and in 5 of the last 6 races he’s finished 27th or worse. Last year he finished 39th in the summer (looked very competitive), and 12th in the Daytona 500 (didn’t have that great of a race). In the four races prior to that he finished 27th or worse.
At Talladega, Keselowski is a five-time winner, but since he won in fall 2017 he has a 24.5 average finish. Last year he was strong in both races, but walked away with results of 25th and 13th. In 2018 he had results of 27th and 33rd.
In 2020 at superspeedways because of his recent lack of success, I would view Keselowski as an overhyped risky performer who’s capable of coming home with the win.
Road Course Fantasy Value – B+
Brad Keselowski is a strong road course racer, and I like him at 2 of the 3 venues. Last year on this track type he scored the 5th most points and had a 10.7 average finish.
Sonoma has been Keselowski’s least successful road course and in 4 of the last 5 races he’s had a result in the teens. Last year he finished 18th, in 2018 he finished 13th. In 2017 he had his best result and finished 3rd. That 2017 good finish is just his only second top ten at this west coast venue. In 2020, I would view Keselowski as a low double-digit to mid-teens driver.
Watkins Glen has historically been his most successful road course with him finishing in the top three 40% percent of the time and in the top ten 60% percent of the time. Last year he finished 9th, in the two prior races he had trouble and finished in the teens. In 2020, he should be viewed as a top ten contender who’ll compete for a top five.
At the Charlotte Roval, Keselowski has been strong. He finished 5th last year and in 2018 he looked strong but crashed while leading late. In 2020, I would look for him to have another strong showing.
