Kyle Larson 2020 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Kyle Larson 2019 Stats: Points Finish 6th, 1 Win, 8 Top Fives, 17 Top Tens, 15.1 Average Finish, 12.8 Average Running Position, 529 Laps Led, 90.44 Driver Rating
Strengths:
Kyle Larson is a well rounded driver who should be near the top of your fantasy NASCAR radar on many different track types. In 2020, look for Larson to be at his best at intermediate tracks, flat tracks and Bristol.
Weaknesses:
For whatever reason, closing out races hasn’t been a strong suite for Kyle Larson. He’s also an extremely streaky driver and when he’s in a cold streak watch out!
Superspeedway racing has been a weakness for Kyle Larson and in 2019 he crashed in 3 of the 4 races.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – A-
Kyle Larson is an elite performer at intermediate tracks, but he has a glaring hole on his resume. He’s never won at a 1.5 mile track which comprise nearly a third of the schedule. At intermediate tracks, Larson is capable of performing at an extremely high-level on any of the sub-track types (1.5, 2.0, high-tire wear, skill).
Last year at intermediate tracks, Larson had 1 win (Dover), finished in the top five 35% percent of the time, in the top ten 47% percent of the time, had a 12.9 average finish and an 11.1 average running position.
Some notable intermediate tracks where Larson should be near the top of your fantasy NASCAR radar are Homestead, Dover, Chicagoland, Darlington, Las Vegas Kentucky and Michigan.
In 2020 at intermediate tracks, look for Larson to be a weekly top ten contender who’ll get his share of top fives. Also, look for Larson to be in serious contention to win a couple of races, but he’ll also burn you a handful of times.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – A-
Kyle Larson is a skilled flat track driver and at both the bigger and the shorter-flat tracks he’s proven himself to be a strong performer.
Last year at the shorter-flat tracks, Larson ran well and over his three incident free races he finished in the top six. In the two he didn’t, he crashed. At all the shorter-flat tracks in 2020 I would view Larson as a top ten driver who’ll compete for a top five.
At bigger flat tracks, Larson is a very strong performer. At Indy, Larson has been fast and over his four incident free races his average finish is 8.75. Last year, Larson arguably had one of the best cars but crashed and finished 33rd. In 2018 he finished 14th. At Pocono, Larson has been a very strong performer and in 75% percent of his starts he’s finished in the top 12. In 2019 he finished 5th in the summer and in the spring he led 35 laps, won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 35 laps but with 9 laps to go while he was running in the top five he got into the wall hard which led to an unexpected pit stop (Finished 26th).
Short Track Fantasy Value – B+
Kyle Larson is a strong performer at short tracks and at two of the three venues he should be high on your radar.
Bristol is by far Larson’s best short track and in 2020 you should view him as a favorite there. He’s never won at “Thunder Valley” but he’s consistently finished well and in 5 of the last 6 races he’s finished in the top ten. Last summer, Larson led 62 laps and finished 6th. In spring 2019 he didn’t have an incident free race and finished 19th. In 2018 he finished 2nd in both races.
At Richmond, Larson won in fall 2017 and in 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished in the top 7. Last fall he finished 6th, in spring 2019 he crashed and finished 37th. In 2018 he had a pair of 7th place results.
Martinsville is by far his worst short track and only once over the last seven races has he finished in the top ten. There is hope though, last fall he finished 9th which marked only his second top ten there. In spring 2019 he finished 18th. In 3 of the 5 races prior to that when he didn’t have problems he finished between 14th to 17th.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – B-
Kyle Larson is an easy pass for me at superspeedways. He lacks success at superspeedways and he’s so much better on other track types.
In 2019 at superspeedways Larson crashed in 3 of the 4 races.
At Daytona, Larson only has one top ten over the last six races. Last summer, Larson was involved in a wreck and finished 20th. In the 2019 Daytona 500 he didn’t run well, but because of the high-attrition rate he finished 7th. In 2018 he had results of 19th and 29th.
At Talladega, Larson has crashed in 3 of the last 6 races. In the three he didn’t crash he fell short of the top ten and had results between 11th to 13th. Last year, Larson crashed in both races and had results of 24th and 39th.
Road Course Fantasy Value – A-
Kyle Larson is a strong road course racer, but I would stop short of calling him elite. At all three road courses he’s capable of coming home with a respectable finish. Last year on this track type he finished between 8th to 13th every race, scored the 6th most points and had a 10.3 average finish.
Watkins Glen is the road course where I view Larson’s fantasy value as the highest and he currently has back to back top tens there. Last year he finished 8th, and in 2018 he finished 6th. In the races prior to that he ran well but often walked away with a misleading result.
At Sonoma, Larson is a qualifying machine, but he’s been a place differential black hole. His average starting position is 2.5 (currently has three straight poles) and his average finish is 17.5. At Sonoma, Larson has finished between 10th to 15th in 4 of the last 5 races. In the one race he finished outside of that range he had problems on the track. Last year at Sonoma, Larson had his best result and finished 10th. In 2018 he finished 14th.
At the Charlotte Roval, Larson has been fast. Last year, I think Larson eased up some in the race because of championship implications and he finished 13th. In 2018 he led 47 laps and arguably had the best car but crashed in the late “Big One” which led o his 25th place finish.
In 2020 at road courses, I think he’s a top five contender at the Charlotte Roval and Watkins Glen, and at Sonoma I’ll view him a top ten contender.
