Denny Hamlin 2020 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Denny Hamlin 2019 Stats: Points Finish 4th, 6 Wins, 19 Top Fives, 24 Top Tens, 9.5 Average Finish, 10.9 Average Running Position, 921 Laps Led, 97.98 Driver Rating
Strengths:
Denny Hamlin is one of the most versatile drivers in NASCAR and on every track type he’s capable of competing for a win.
In 2020, look for Hamlin to be at his very best at flat tracks and short tracks. As I’ve said for about a decade, “If its short or flat, pick Hamlin.” In 2019 between those two track types, Hamlin finished in the top 6 every race and was one of the drivers to beat.
Weaknesses:
Denny Hamlin had a career year in 2019. He won 6 races after being winless in 2018, and had a career high average finish (9.5) and a career high amount of top fives (19). What was different for Denny Hamlin last season is that he had a new crew chief. For whatever reason, Hamlin always seems to have a spike in performance when he gets a new crew chief, but as time goes on things start to slowly decline. Hopefully in year #2 the honeymoon isn’t over.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – A-
Denny Hamlin is a strong intermediate track performer who’ll be a contender on many race weekends in 2020. This upcoming season, the rules package is essentially the same so there’s no reason why he shouldn’t run well again.
In 2019 at intermediate tracks, Hamlin scored the 5th most points, had 2 wins, finished in the top five 29% percent of the time and in the top ten 47% percent of the time. His wins came at Texas #1 and Kansas #2. Prior to winning at those venues last season you have to go back to 2015 to find his next most recent win at a 1.5 mile track.
This upcoming season at intermediate tracks, I would view Hamlin as a top ten contender on a weekly basis who’ll earn a good amount of top fives. He’ll also likely be in contention to win a race or two.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – A
Denny Hamlin thrives at flat tracks and at both the bigger and the shorter flat tracks he should prominently be on your fantasy NASCAR radar.
In 2019, nobody was better than Hamlin on this track type. Over the eight combined races at these venues he scored the most points, finished in the top 6 every race, had a 3.6 average finish and a 7.0 average running position.
One of my long running fantasy mantras for Denny Hamlin is, “If its short or flat, pick Hamlin.” Last year at the shorter-flat tracks he finished in the top five every race, had a 3.2 average finish and a 5.4 average running position. At all three shorter-flat tracks he should be viewed as a top five performer. Last fall at Phoenix the most recent shorter-flat track visited, Hamlin raced his way to victory lane.
At the bigger-flat tracks, Hamlin won at Pocono in July and had results of 6th at both Indy and Pocono #1. Hamlin’s win at Pocono marked his first “W” there since 2010. Overall in 4 of the last 5 races there he’s finished in the top ten. Indy has been one of Hamlin’s best tracks in recent seasons. He’s never won there, but in 5 of the last 6 races he’s finished in the top 6. Last year he finished 6th, in 2018 he finished 3rd.
Short Track Fantasy Value – A+
When it comes to short track racing, Denny Hamlin should always be considered a favorite. At all three venues he’s capable of reaching victory lane and ranks as one of the better drivers.
In 2019 at short tracks Hamlin had 1 win, finished in the top 5 every race and had a series best 3.8 average finish.
At Bristol, Denny Hamlin has been a great performer and over the last seven races he has a series best 7.1 average finish. Last summer, Hamlin led 79 laps and raced his way to victory lane after reeling in Matt DiBenedetto late. In spring 2019 he finished 5th.
At Martinsville, Hamlin is a five-time winner and is without question one of the best in the business. In 4 of the last 5 races there he’s finished in the top 7. In 2019 he had results of 4th and 5th.
At Richmond, Hamlin has finished in the top six in 8 of the last 9 races. Last year he had results of 3rd and 5th.
Superspeedway Fantasy Value – A
Denny Hamlin, the 2019 Daytona 500 winner is one of the premiere superspeedway drivers in the series and at both venues he should be viewed as a favorite. In 2019 he had one top five and a crash at each venue.
Between the two venues, I like Hamlin more at Daytona. He’s the defending Daytona 500 winner and in 7 of the last 12 races he’s finished in the top 6. In Daytona 500’s, he’s been especially strong and since 2014 he’s finished in the top four in 5 of the last 6 races. Last summer, he looked good but crashed and finished 26th.
At Talladega, Hamlin has run well and over the last seven races he has four results in the top 6 and five results in the top 11. I’ll note there’s a very notable trend going on with him there. Over the last four fall races he’s finished in the top ten, and over the last four spring races he’s failed to finish in the top ten.
Even though this track type is risky, Denny Hamlin is without question one of the safer bets at superspeedways.
Road Course Fantasy Value – A-
Denny Hamlin is one of the best road course racers and on this track type he should be high on your radar, especially at Sonoma and Watkins Glen. At the Charlotte Roval, improvement is needed.
In 2019 at road courses, Hamlin scored the 2nd most points, had two top fives and a 9.0 average finish.
Sonoma has been Hamlin’s best road course and over the last four races he has a 5.25 average finish and a result in the top ten every race. Last year, Hamlin had a great race and finished 5th. In the three prior to that he had results of 10th, 4th and 2nd.
At Watkins Glen, Hamlin has also performed at an elite level in recent races. He won in 2016 and over the last four races he has three results in the top four and his average finish is also 5.25. In 2019 he finished 3rd.
The Charlotte Roval has been a kink in his armor at road courses and he hasn’t been all that great in either race. Last year he finished 19th, and in 2018 he finished 12th.
