Martin Truex Jr. 2020 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Martin Truex Jr. 2019 Stats: Points Finish 2nd, 7 Wins, 15 Top Fives, 24 Top Tens, 9.8 Average Finish, 10.3 Average Running Position, 1,371 Laps Led, 103.43 Driver Rating
Strengths:
Martin Truex Jr. is unquestionably one of the premiere performers in the series. At every track type except for superspeedways he should rank among the favorites on a week to week basis.
Weaknesses:
In 2020, the biggest question revolving around Martin Truex Jr. is how important was Cole Pearn to his success. Pearn is one of the elite crew chiefs in NASCAR, so it will likely prove to be at least a minor setback. That said, Joe Gibbs Racing is a deep organization and being promoted from within is his 2019 lead engineer, James Small. Small has been with Truex/Pearn for the last three seasons. About the transition Truex Jr. said, “I know James well and feel very comfortable with him. I feel like we approach racing very similar. He and Cole have a lot of similarities. It’s a natural fit and I’m really excited about it. I think he’ll do a great job.” (Yahoo). In terms of a track type, I would be wary picking Truex Jr. at superspeedways. They’ve been brutal to him and he’s consistently lacked success.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – A
Martin Truex Jr. is an elite performer at intermediate tracks who’ll be a weekly contender in 2020. At all the intermediates on the schedule he’s more than capable of racing his way to victory lane.
In 2019 at intermediate tracks, Truex Jr. won the most races (3), finished in the top five 47% percent of the time, in the top ten 76% percent of the time, had a 6.9 average finish and a 9.2 average running position.
In 2020 on this track type, Truex Jr. is more than capable of winning on any given Sunday, but a few tracks in particular where you should target him are Dover, Las Vegas, Homestead, Charlotte, Auto Club, Kansas, Chicagoland, Atlanta and Kentucky. At all of those intermediates listed his average finish since 2017 is 7.0 or lower. That’s impressive!
Flat Track Fantasy Value – A
Martin Truex Jr. is a strong performer at flat tracks who ranks among the best. At all the flat tracks, both big and small he’s more than capable of racing his way to victory lane.
In 2019 on this track type minus Pocono #1 and Indy where he had trouble he had 2 wins, a 3.2 average finish and a 5.7 average running position.
At the shorter-flat tracks, nobody is better than Martin Truex Jr. Last year at those venues he won twice (Richmond x2), had a 3.2 average result and finished in the top six every race. In 2020, he should be viewed as a favorite at all three of those venues.
At the bigger flat tracks, Truex Jr. is one of the most capable performers in the series. Last year, however he had problems in 2 of the 3 races. At Pocono, Truex Jr. has finished in the top six in 4 of the last 6 races. Last year he finished 3rd in the summer and in the spring he was likely a top five contender but had engine problems and finished 35th. At Indy, Truex Jr. is capable of running extremely well, but it’s been a trouble spot for him in recent seasons and over the last three races he’s finished 27th or worse. Last year he finished 27th.
Short Track Fantasy Value – A-
Heading into 2019, Martin Truex Jr. was winless at short tracks. In 2019, he won half the races (3 of 6), scored the most points, had a 6.8 average finish and a 5.5 average running position. At both Martinsville and Richmond he should be considered a pre-race favorite. At Bristol I would view him as a very capable driver who carries a lot of risk.
At Richmond, Martin Truex Jr. is unquestionably the driver to beat. He won both races in 2019 and over the last five races he’s averaged leading 155 laps per race.
At Martinsville, Truex Jr. is a fantasy ace and over the last five races he has a 3.6 average finish. Last fall, Truex Jr. led 464 laps in route to victory lane. In spring 2019 he finished 8th. In the three races prior to that he had results of 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
At Bristol, Truex Jr. is a very capable performer, but for whatever reason he’s had trouble walking away with a good result. Over the last fifteen races he has zero top fives and just one top ten. That said, he’s had some great races over this stretch only to have some sort of issue. Last summer, Truex Jr. led 52 laps and finished 13th. In spring 2019 he finished 17th.
Superspeedway Fantasy Value – C+
I’m not an advocate for picking Martin Truex Jr. at superspeedways. If you’re in an allocation league picking him at these venues is outright crazy. Since 2016 on this track type he’s 2 for 16 in terms of walking away with a top ten.
In 2019 at superspeedways he finished 20th or worse every race and had a 25.8 average finish. In 2020 on this track type he might be able to sneak in a good result or two, but his track record doesn’t point towards that being the case.
Talladega has been a downright dreadful track for Truex Jr. and over the last seven races he’s finished 20th or worse. Last year he had results of 26th and 20th. In 2018 he finished 23rd and 26th. I don’t see any upside in picking him there.
At Daytona since 2016 he’s snuck in two runner-up results since 2016, but let’s not overlook his five results of 18th or worse. Last year he had results of 22nd and 35th. In summer 2018 he nearly won (finished 2nd), but in the four races prior to that his average finish was 23.5
Road Course Fantasy Value – A+
Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at road courses who’s arguably the best in the series. When it comes to this form of racing, the debate for who’s the best comes down to only him and Chase Elliott.
At all three road courses, Martin Truex Jr. should be at the top of your radar and should be viewed as a top five performer who’ll be in the mix for the win. In 2019 at road courses over the combined events he scored the most points, had 1 win, a 3.3 average finish and a 5.0 average running position. In 2018 on this track type he won once, had a runner-up and was robbed of a win.
At Sonoma, Truex Jr. has emerged as the driver to beat. He’s won in dominate fashion the last two races and if it wasn’t for an engine failure in 2017 he would have four straight top five finishes. Last year in route to victory lane he led 59 laps. Loop data speed wise he had the best Green Flag Average Speed and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2018 in addition to winning he led 62 laps. Pick Truex Jr. at Sonoma!
At Watkins Glen, Truex Jr. has been phenomenal, but Chase Elliott has the edge on him there. Currently at that venue he has three straight results in the top 2, with him finishing 2nd the last two races. In 2017 he raced his way to victory lane there.
At the Charlotte Roval he’s been no slouch. He finished 7th last year and in 2018 if he wasn’t spun in the last turn he had the race won.
