Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch is the premiere performer at Phoenix and on Sunday he’ll be the driver to beat. Phoenix has become his personal playground and in recent races he’s been in a league of his own. Over the last four races, Busch has 2 wins, a 1.5 average finish, a 3.0 average running position, the best driver rating by a wide margin and he’s led 122.75 laps per race. Since 2015 at Phoenix, Busch has only finished lower than 4th once and that result was a 7th! Last fall at Phoenix, Busch had a stellar showing, but I don’t think he raced with full effort because of championship implications. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had the 2nd best Green Flag Average Speed, had a 3rd place average running position and led 69 laps. Additionally, Busch finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. Last spring, nobody was better than Busch. He finished 1st, earned a near perfect driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 177 laps. Additionally, he finished 5th in Stage #1 and won Stage #2. In fall 2018, Busch had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. In addition to winning he finished 7th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 117 laps and had a 4th place average running position. In spring 2018, Busch had a great car. He finished 2nd, earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led a race high 128 laps. Also in the race he won Stage #1 and would’ve won Stage #2 if there wasn’t a late caution in that segment. In 2019 at shorter-flat tracks, Busch scored the most points, had a 4.2 average finish and a 4.0 average running position.

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Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick is a super-elite performer at Phoenix who should be on your short list of favorites. He’s not as dominant as he used to be in the desert, but he’s still a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. At Phoenix, he’s a 9-time winner and over the last 13 races he has twelve finishes in the top 6 and he’s had a result in the top 9 every race. Since 2017 at Phoenix, Harvick has one win and his other five results are between 5th to 9th. Over those combined events he has a 5.2 average finish, a 6.8 average running position and his driver rating ranks as the 3rd best. Last fall in the desert, Harvick had a strong performance. He finished 5th, had a 7th place average running position, finished 9th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2 and his Green Flag Average Speed ranked as the 6th best. In spring 2019, Harvick was viewed as the favorite following practice, but it never materialized in the race. When the checkered flag waved he finished 9th, had an 8th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. Additionally, he finished 10th in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. In 4 of the 5 Phoenix races prior to that he finished between 4th to 6th. In 2018, he had a great season at Phoenix. In fall 2018 he started first, finished 5th and led 73 laps. I’ll note his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 72 while he was leading (led every lap until that point) he slowed on the track because of a flat tire which dropped him off the lead lap back to the high-twenties. In spring 2018, he raced his way to victory lane and led 38 laps. In addition to winning he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 38 laps. In the three races prior to that he had results of 5th, 6th and 4th. In 2019 at shorter-flat tracks over the combined races, Harvick had a 5.2 average finish and a 6.0 average running position.

Martin Truex Jr.– Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at shorter-flat tracks who should be near the top of your fantasy NASCAR radar at Phoenix. Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Truex was arguably the premiere performer in the series and over the five combined races he had 2 wins, a 3.2 average finish, a 5.4 average running position and he scored the 2nd most points. At Phoenix, Martin Truex Jr. has performed at an extremely high-level and in 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished in the top six. Over those combined races minus fall 2018 where he mailed in his performance he has a 4.0 average finish and a 5.8 average running position. Last fall at Phoenix, Truex Jr.’s team didn’t bring their A-game since they were already locked into Homestead, but they still had a good performance. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 6th, had a 6th place average running position and had the 3rd best Green Flag Average Speed. Over the course of the race his car got better. In spring 2019, Truex finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. At the end of the race he had the fastest car on the track. What makes his good finish a little more impressive is that he had to overcome an early speeding penalty around lap 40 while he was running in the top five. In fall 2018, he didn’t race with a lot of effort and when the checkered flag waved he finished 14th and had a 10th place average running position. In the two races prior to that he had results of 3rd and 5th.

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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions and Low Tier