Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions and The Low Tier

Austin Dillon – At Phoenix, I’m going to project Austin Dillon as a mid to high-teens driver. Last year in the desert he was a dud in the fall, but ran well in the spring despite his misleading result. At Phoenix since 2017, Dillon has a 17.0 average finish and a 16.3 average running position. Last fall at Phoenix, Dillon was a mid-twenties driver. He finished 24th, had a 25th place average running position and had the 25th best Green Flag Average Speed. In spring 2019 he finished a misleading 21st. With 6 laps to go while he was running in the top ten he had to pit for fuel. His average running position for the afternoon was 12th. Realistically, I think Dillon was likely about a mid-teens performer. When he was running in the top ten late, it was artificially through pit strategy. In fall 2018 he had a competitive performance. That afternoon he finished 8th, had an 11th place average running position and earned the 11th best driver rating. Additionally, he finished 10th in Stage #1 and 6th in Stage #2. In spring 2018, he finished 17th and had a 15th place average running position. In 2017, Dillon had results of 14th and 18th.

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Christopher Bell – Rookie, Christopher Bell is a capable shorter-flat track driver who shouldn’t get overlooked at Phoenix. He’s off to a rough start in 2020, but he’s due to have an incident free race one of these weekends. Last year in the lower series, Bell won 2 of the last 3 races at shorter-flat tracks having raced his way to victory lane at Richmond and New Hampshire. At Phoenix in 2019 in the lower series, Bell was strong, but had problems in both races. In both events he started on the pole, but in both he was involved in the last caution. Last fall in the desert he finished 16th, but that’s a misleading result because he spun in the final Stage. In the race he won the first two Stages and led a race high 92 laps. In spring 2019, Bell finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2 and led 68 laps but was involved in a late multi-car wreck that led to his 30th place finish. In 2018 in the lower series he had results of 1st and 4th. On Sunday, I’m going to play it cautiously and view him as a mid to high-teens driver.

Cole Custer – Cole Custer was a Xfinity series shorter-flat track ace in 2019. Last year in the combined races held on this sub-track type he finished in the top 4 every race and had a 2.4 average finish. Last year at Phoenix, Custer finished 2nd in the fall and 4th in the spring. On Sunday, I’m going to view him very conservatively and project him as a mid to high-teens driver.

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