Martinsville Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kyle Busch (Starting 7th) Kyle Busch is a super-elite performer at Martinsville who’ll be a factor on Wednesday. He’s thrived here, and since 2015 he’s only once finished outside the top 5. Over the last six combined Martinsville races, Busch has a 4.3 average finish, a 4.5 average running position and in half of those races he’s led +100 laps. Last fall at Martinsville, Busch had his worst race in a while and finished a misleading 14th. It’s important to note that race wasn’t incident free. In the race he finished 9th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2 but in the final Stage with about 139 laps to go while he was running around 5th, he was involved in a multi-car accident. Since his car appeared to get better as the race progressed, I think it’s more than fair to speculate he was poised to finish in the top five if his race would’ve been incident free. In spring 2019, Busch was strong. He finished 3rd, earned the 4th best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. Compared to his other previous races, he was just a little off. In fall 2018, Busch started on the pole, finished 4th, had a 3rd place average running position, led 100 laps and finished 3rd in both Stage #1 and #2. In spring 2018 he had a great car. He finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, finished 4th in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. (DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $14,500 )

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2) Brad Keselowski (Starting 6th) Brad Keselowski is the defending spring winner at Martinsville and on Wednesday night he’ll be tough to beat. At the “Paper Clip”,  Keselowski’s finished in the top five in 7 of the last 8 races. Over the last four combined races, Keselowski has the 2nd best average finish (4.8), the 2nd best driver rating and the 4th best average running position (6.3). Last fall, Keselowski was solid. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 3rd, had the 6th best driver rating, the 6th best average running position (8.6) and ranked as the 10th “Fastest Driver Late In A Run.” At the end of the race he was at his best. In spring 2019, Keselowski crushed the competition. He finished 1st, won both Stage #1 and #2, had a 1st place average running position, earned a perfect driver rating and led 446 laps. In fall 2018, Keselowski had a strong showing. He finished 5th, earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 10th place average running position. In spring 2018 he was solid. He finished 10th, had a 5th place average running position and earned the 6th best driver rating. Additionally, he finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. In 2017, Keselowski was the class of the field. He won in the spring and should’ve won in the fall. In fall 2017 if there weren’t late cautions he clearly would’ve won. When the checkered flag waved he finished 4th, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 108 laps. Also in the race he won Stage #1 and Stage #2. In spring 2017, Keselowski finished 1st, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 116 laps. (DraftKings $9,500 / FanDuel $13,500 )

3) Denny Hamlin (Starting 12th) Denny Hamlin is an elite short track performer who’ll be a favorite at Martinsville. At the “Paper Clip”, he’s a five-time winner who’s finished in the top five 53% of the time and in the top ten 75% of the time. In 2019 at short tracks, Hamlin went a perfect 6 for 6 in terms of finishing in the top five and had a series best 3.8 average finish. Last fall at Martinsville, Hamlin had a strong showing. He finished 4th, had a 4.7 average running position, earned the 4th best driver rating and ranked as the 3rd “Fastest Driver Late In A Run.” In spring 2019, Hamlin had a strong showing. He started 5th, finished 5th, had a 7th place average running position, finished 4th in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. I’ll note his result is a little more impressive when you take into account he was caught speeding during the Stage #2 caution. In fall 2018, Hamlin had a strong showing and finished 2nd. In the race he won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, earned the 2nd best driver rating and had a 3rd place average running position. In spring 2018 he had a strong car, but finished a misleading 12th. “Performance Wise”, I thought he was a top five contender but during a caution with about 115 laps to go he pitted twice to repair damage to his nose which dropped him from 5th to 16th. In the race it should be noted he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position, led 111 laps, won Stage #1 and finished 5th in Stage #2. On Saturday night, look for Hamlin to finish in the top five and be a factor to win. (DraftKings $11,900 / FanDuel $12,000 )