Homestead Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick (Starting 7th) Kevin Harvick is a super-elite performer at Homestead who should be on your short list of favorites. Homestead has been a stellar track for him, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be a factor again. At Homestead, Harvick has 12 straight top tens and over the last six races he’s had a result in the top 4. Since 2016 at Homestead, Harvick has the best driver rating, the best average running position (3.5) and the 2nd best average finish (3.5). In the 2019 season finale, Harvick had a strong showing. He finished 4th, had a 4th place average running position, earned the 3rd best driver rating and led 41 laps. Additionally, Harvick finished 4th in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2. In terms of Speed Analytics, Harvick had the 5th best Green Flag Average Speed and ranked as the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Harvick’s car was setup to be at its best early in a run, and in that statistic he ranked as the 2nd best. In 2018, Harvick had a great car that was arguably the best, but a late caution likely cost him the race. He was going to cycle to the lead following the late pit cycle, but because of how the caution fell it dropped him back to 4th. When the checkered flag waved he finished 3rd, had a 3rd place average running position, earned the 2nd best driver rating and led 58 laps. Additionally, he won Stage #1 and finished 2nd in Stage #2 (Kyle Larson passed him on the last lap). In the four Homestead races prior to that, Harvick had results of 4th, 3rd, 2nd and 1st. One attribute I really like about Harvick is how good his team has been off the truck at high tire wear tracks since “NASCAR Is Back.” At Atlanta he put on a display of domination, and at Darlington #1 he easily raced his way to victory lane. (DraftKings $11,800/ FanDuel $14,500 )

2) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting 6th) Martin Truex Jr. should be near the top of your fantasy NASCAR radar at Homestead. He’s performed at a super-elite level, and over the last three races he’s finished in the top 2, has a 1.7 average finish, a 3.3 average running position, the best driver rating and he’s led the most laps (201). In last years season finale, Truex Jr. had a great car that I would argue was the best, but he finished a misleading 2nd. On lap 122 (middle of Stage #2) during a pit cycle where he would’ve cycled back to the lead he made an unexpected pit stop after his team put tires on the wrong side of his car. From the race I’ll note he led 103 laps, won Stage #1 and still managed to finish 4th in Stage #2 despite his pit problem. In 2018, Truex Jr. had a phenomenal car. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 20 laps. Additionally, he finished 5th in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. In 2017, Larson dominated before dusk, but Truex dominated after darkness. When the checkered flag waved he finished 1st, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, led 78 laps, finished 5th in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2. At Atlanta, the most recent high tire wear venue visited, Truex finished 3rd. (DraftKings $11,400/ FanDuel $13,300 )

3) Kyle Busch (Starting 4th) Kyle Busch has thrived at Homestead and on Sunday he’ll be tough to beat. Over the last five combined races at Homestead, Busch has a 2.8 average finish, a 3.4 average running position and his driver rating ranks as the best. Last fall in the season finale, Busch finished 1st, finished 3rd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 2nd place average running position and led a race high 120 laps. In terms of Speed Analytics, he had the 3rd best Green Flag Average Speed and he ranked as the 3rd Fastest Late In A run. In 2018, Busch had a strong showing. He finished 4th, had a 4th place average running position, earned the 4th best driver rating and led 21 laps. Additionally, he finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 6th in Stage #2. In 2017, Busch had a great car. He finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 43 laps. Additionally, he finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. This year at high tire wear tracks, Kyle Busch has been one of the best. Minus Darlington #1 where he had a misleading result he’s 3 for 3 at finishing 2nd. (DraftKings $10,100/ FanDuel $13,700 )