Homestead Post Qualifying Draw Fantasy NASCAR Predictions
The NASCAR Cup Series is off to Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend and…you guessed it: rain is in the forecast. The good news is that, for the most part, NASCAR has had a pretty lucky year despite some awful rain forecasts, so maybe luck will be on their side again. As far as Homestead goes, it’s a 1.5-mile track but not your typical “cookie cutter.” It’s a high wear track so looking at other venues with rough surfaces would be a good idea, including Atlanta last week as well as Darlington and Fontana from this year. The other high wear track is Chicagoland, but we haven’t raced there this season.
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Final Top 25 Fantasy NASCAR Rankings for the Dixie Vodka 400
1. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 6th – DraftKings Price: $11,400 – FanDuel Price: $13,300 – Slingshot Price: $12,500
Last week at Martinsville, I had Truex ranked #1 and said maybe, finally, this #19 team would get the monkey off of their back and get into victory lane…and that’s exactly what happened. So why not go back-to-back? Now, Kevin Harvick is the obvious favorite heading into Homestead on Sunday, especially after his Atlanta win last week, but let’s not forget the guy that actually had the best Green Flag Speed in that race: Martin Truex, Jr. In fact, Truex ranked 3rd or better in Green Flag Speed in four of the last six races, bringing his season average to 6.7 and rank to 2nd-best and tied with Harvick (click here for the Cheat Sheet). Here at Homestead, Truex has three straight finishes of 2nd or better, and I still think he would have won last year if his pit crew wasn’t so incompetent. To me, Truex and Harvick are neck and neck heading into Sunday, and with so many people picking Harvick, the contrarian in me loves going with Truex instead.
2. Kevin Harvick – Starts 7th – DraftKings Price: $11,800 – FanDuel Price: $14,500 – Slingshot Price: $13,000
The only way Kevin Harvick won’t contend for the Dixie Vodka 400 win on Sunday is if he has mechanical issues or his pit crew royally screws up. On the high wear race tracks this season, Harvick has a ridiculous average finish of 3.5 and has grabbed over 20% of the dominator points in DraftKings. Add in the non-high wear 1.5-mile track races and his average finish is still a series-best 5.3 over those seven races. Here at Homestead, Harvick has six straight top 5 finishes and hasn’t ended up outside of the top 10 here since 2007. So, yeah… a pretty safe Fantasy NASCAR pick on Sunday if you ask me. My algorithm (click here) has Harvick the favorite to win by a pretty large margin.
3. Chase Elliott – Starts 5th – DraftKings Price: $11,000 – FanDuel Price: $12,000 – Slingshot Price: $12,000
Chase Elliott is driving the most badass paint scheme I’ve ever seen this weekend, and for that reason alone I hope he ends up in victory lane. Do I think it will happen? Actually, yeah, I think this #9 Chevrolet could easily get there. Chase ranked inside the top 5 in Green Flag Speed yet again at Martinsville on Wednesday night, and his average ranking in that category is now a series-best 4.3 this season (click here for the Cheat Sheet). Here at Homestead, Chase hasn’t finished worse than 15th in four career starts here, but he has just one top 5 finish–a 5th-place result in 2017. On the high wear tracks this season, Elliott has finished 8th or better in three of the four races with the only exception being Darlington, where he had issues.
