Kentucky Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Driver Breakdowns

1) Chase Elliott (Starting – 8th) Chase Elliott will be tough to beat at Kentucky. This year at 1.5 mile tracks he’s been the premier performer and minus Las Vegas where he won the first two Stages and had the field covered (most similar track visited this season), Elliott has a 3.5 average result and he’s finished in the top two in 3 of the 4 races. “Performance Wise”, Elliott has been good enough to win 4 of the 5 races at tracks of this length but some problems have held him back. At Kentucky, Elliott doesn’t have a track record to brag about. He’s finished in the top ten once, and his last two results are in the teens. Last year at Kentucky, Elliott didn’t have a smooth race and on lap 47 he had a flat tire and brought out the first caution. At the time of that incident he was running around the mid-teens. When the checkered flag waved he finished 15th. In 2018, the number you need to know about Elliott is 13. He finished 13th, had a 13th place average running position and earned the 13th best driver rating. In 2017, Elliott had a great performance. When the checkered flag waved he finished 3rd, earned the 5th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position. Additionally, he finished 10th in the first two Stages. I will note he did use some pit strategy late which helped him and I thought he was realistically around 7th place good. (DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $12,500)

2) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 3rd) Kevin Harvick will be a contender at Kentucky. It’s been a solid venue for him and in 3 of the 4 races on the current configuration he’s finished between 5th to 9th. Minus last years race where he had a misleading result, Harvick has a 4.0 average running position and a 7.7 average finish. Last year at Kentucky, Harvick finished 22nd but don’t read into that result. Around lap 180 he was penalized for having an uncontrolled tire. Prior to that he was running just outside the top ten. From the race I’ll note he finished 6th in Stage #1, would’ve finished around 7th in Stage #2 if there wasn’t a late caution and had a 10.5 average running position despite his penalty with about a third of the race remaining. In 2018, Harvick had a strong showing. He finished 5th, had a 5th place average running position and earned the 3rd best driver rating. Additionally, he finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. In 2017, Harvick had a strong showing. He earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position, finished 4th in the first two Stages and finished 9th when the checkered flag waved. I will note if there wasn’t a late caution he was poised to finish 5th (Was caught speeding on pit road). In 2016, Harvick was extremely strong. He earned the best driver rating, led a race high 128 laps and finished 9th. If fuel mileage didn’t enter the equation at the end he was a lock for a top 3. This year at 1.5 mile tracks, Harvick has been fast and minus a misleading result at Homestead he’s finished in the top eight every race and has a 6th place average finish.  (DraftKings $11,600 / FanDuel $14,500)

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3) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 12th) Denny Hamlin is a strong performer at Kentucky who should be high on your radar. He’s run well here, and you have to love how well he’s been running in recent races at 1.5 mile tracks. In the last three races held at tracks of this length he’s come home with results of 2nd (Charlotte #2), 5th (Atlanta) and 1st (Homestead). At Kentucky, Hamlin has finished in the top five in 2 of the 4 races on the new configuration. Over the last three combined Kentucky races his average finish is 8.3. Last year at Kentucky, Hamlin had a strong showing. He finished 5th, earned the 5th best driver rating, led 5 laps and had a 9.1 average running position. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin had the 6th best Green Flag Average Speed. In 2018, Hamlin didn’t have a great race. He started 36th and finished 16th. I will note he was burned by a caution on lap 208 which came out just after he pitted which trapped him a lap down. Just prior to that he was running around 13th. In 2017, Hamlin had a strong showing. He finished 4th, earned the 8th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. Additionally, he finished 7th in Stage #1 and 8th in Stage #2. I will note if there wasn’t late cautions he was poised to finish around 7th. (DraftKings $10,900 / FanDuel $13,800)