Texas Post Qualifying Draw Fantasy NASCAR Predictions

We had a crazy finish at Kentucky Speedway last weekend with rookie Cole Custer taking the checkered flag, and we could be in for something similar here this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. This is another 1.5-mile track and we’re also running the exact same tire combination that was used at Kentucky one week ago. Additionally, Texas was recently repaved, just like Kentucky was. Track position is going to be huge in the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, but as you can tell from the title, we have an extra 100 miles to sort things out here at Texas on Sunday. Last weekend’s lap leader, Aric Almirola, drew the pole for Sunday’s race, and Ryan Blaney will start 2nd.. Click here for the full Texas starting lineup.

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Final Top 25 Fantasy NASCAR Rankings for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 5th – DraftKings Price: $11,300 – FanDuel Price: $14,500 – Slingshot Price: $13,000

Kevin Harvick is going to be the default favorite for most Fantasy NASCAR writers this weekend, and why not? The guy is a stud at this track, with three wins in the last five races, and no finish worse than 8th since the track was repaved back in 2017. He’s also led 498 races here since that repave happened. As far as this season goes on the 1.5-mile tracks, Harvick led 92 laps but ended up 8th at Las Vegas, finished 5th in the first Charlotte race, led 63 laps and ended up 10th in the second Charlotte race, and then dominated and won at Atlanta. At Homestead, this #4 team was completely off, and then they rebounded with a 4th-place finish at Kentucky last weekend. And while that 4th wasn’t a typical great day for Harvick at Kentucky, there’s a reason why: he’s not that great at that track. I’d consider a 4th a win for him, honestly (read why here). The last time we were at a track where Kevin Harvick had ridiculously good stats, he went out and won. It’s the same thing this weekend. If that #4 Ford isn’t challenging for the win here on Sunday, it’s going to be because of a mechanical issue. Harvick is one of the best (and safest) Fantasy NASCAR picks you can make this weekend.

2. Ryan Blaney – Starts 2nd – DraftKings Price: $8,900 – FanDuel Price: $11,200 – Slingshot Price: $11,000

With the drivers I have ranked first and second this weekend, it truly is a toss-up for me. Hell, you could even throw Truex in there as well, and probably Chase, too. I could definitely see any one of those four winning here at Texas on Sunday unless we get another crazy last restart. So let’s talk about Young Ryan Blaney. First, bad luck is really the only reason Blaney doesn’t have multiple wins this year. He had the fastest car at Las Vegas but had a tire issue late, and he had the fastest car at Kentucky last weekend, too, but never got a good break to get track position, meaning the lead, like his teammate, Brad Keselowski, did. But here’s the thing: the win is going to come for this #12 team on a 1.5-mile track. Blaney has been the best driver on 1.5-mile tracks this season (click here). His average finish of 5.2 on them is a full two spots better than 2nd-best Brad Keselowski. His Green Flag Speed average ranking of 4.0 is the best, and the only guy close is Chase Elliott (5.0). YRB will roll off the grid from 2nd here at Texas on Sunday and if he can get the lead away from Aric Almirola early, you could see him stay out front for 100+ laps. He did it back in the first race on this repaved Texas back in 2017, and over the last five events here Blaney has finished 8th or better in all but one (when he had mechanical issues but he still led 45 laps). I’ll make sure not to bet on him to win this weekend in an effort not to jinx him.

3. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 10th – DraftKings Price: $10,400 – FanDuel Price: $13,000 – Slingshot Price: $12,600

Green Flag Speed is the new practice data this season, so let’s take a look at how Martin Truex, Jr. is doing on similar tracks. He ranked 8th at Las Vegas back in February when all of Joe Gibbs Racing sucked, and then had the best Green Flag Speed in the Coca-Cola 600, ranked 17th at Charlotte-2, was fastest at Atlanta, 14th-fastest at Homestead, and then 2nd-fastest last weekend at Kentucky. It seems to me that this #19 team is kind of on a pattern here of being lower than average and then super fast. It’s certainly possible that that could continue at Texas this weekend but I think we’re going to see another great race out of Truex on Sunday and he’ll be one of the contenders. Since the repave, Truex has really only had one bad race here, and in four of the six he’s finished 9th or better. His best run on this “new” track as the fall race in 2017 when he led 107 laps and finished 2nd. What’s surprising, though, is that is Martin’s only top 5 here since the start of the 2017 season. Still, Truex ranks 3rd-best in average finish on 1.5-mile tracks this year (8.8) and also 3rd-best in average Green Flag Speed ranking (7.2). He’s a solid pick in Fantasy NASCAR this week, especially in leagues that award points for place differential.