Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Driver Breakdowns
1) Kevin Harvick / Starting 8th / DraftKings $10,900 / FanDuel $14,200
Kevin Harvick is a super-elite performer at Darlington who’ll be tough to beat. He raced his way to victory lane earlier this year in race #1, and since 2014 he’s only once finished outside the top 5, and that result was a 9th. Over the last four combined Darlington races, Harvick has finished in the top 4 every race, has a 3.0 average finish, he’s averaged leading a series best 42.3 laps per race and his average running position is tied as a series best 7.1. This spring in race #1, Harvick was the class of the field and easily raced his way to victory lane. In addition to finishing 1st he finished 4th in the first two Stages, led 159 laps, had a 2.4 average running position and ranked as the 2nd “Fastest Driver Late In A Run.” Nobody had anything for him. In race #2, Harvick started 20th, finished 3rd, led 10 laps and had a 9.0 average running position. His car wasn’t at its best early, but over the course of the race it got better after some fine tuning. In 2019, Harvick finished 4th, had a 10.1 average running position and ranked as the 11th “Fastest Driver Late In A Run.” In 2018, Harvick had a strong showing. He started back in 22nd, but when the race reached its conclusion he finished 4th, had a 7th place average running position and earned the 6th best driver rating. Additionally, he finished 6th in Stage #1 and 10th in Stage #2. On Sunday, look for Harvick to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
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2) Denny Hamlin / Starting 2nd / DraftKings $11,400 / FanDuel $13,500
Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Darlington who’ll be a favorite. At “The Lady In Black”, Hamlin is a three-time winner who’s finished in the top five 56% of the time, in the top ten 81% of the time and his overall average finish is 7.2. This spring at Darlington, Hamlin was a standout performer and in both events he ranked as the “Fastest Driver Late In A Run.” In race #2 earlier this year, Hamlin raced his way to victory lane from the 16th place starting position. Additionally, Hamlin led 12 laps, had a 9.1 average running position, finished 8th in Stage #1 and 7th in Stage #2. In race #1 this spring, Hamlin finished 5th, had a 5.9 average running position, finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 9th in Stage #2. In 2019, Hamlin had a great car but finished an asterisk mark 29th. In the race he finished 5th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 but then in the final Stage around lap 275 while he was running in 4th he crashed. In 2018, Hamlin had a solid showing. He finished 10th, earned the 10th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position. In 2017, Denny Hamlin had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. In the race he earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, led 124 laps (tied for the most led), finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2. In 4 of the 5 Darlington races prior to that he finished in the top 4. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
3) Martin Truex Jr. / Starting 6th / DraftKings $9,400 / FanDuel $12,400
Martin Truex Jr. is a strong performer at Darlington who’ll be a factor. He raced his way to victory lane in 2016, and in recent races he ranks among the best. Since 2016 minus 2019 where he had a misleading result, Truex has 1 win, a 7.2 average finish, a 7.6 average running position and he’s finished in the top 11 every race. This spring at Darlington, Truex Jr. was solid in both races. I’ll quickly note when “The Lady In Black” was visited earlier this year, the #19 team wasn’t running as well as they are now. In race #2 this spring, Truex finished 10th, had a 6.7 average running position, finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 and ranked as the 2nd “Fastest Driver Late In A Run.” In race #1, Truex finished 3rd in Stage #2, 3rd overall and ranked as the 6th “Fastest Driver Late In A Run.” In 2019, Truex finished an asterisk mark 15th, but don’t read too much into that result. In the race he finished 9th in Stage #1, but then in Stage #2 while he was running around 5th near lap 175 he made an unexpected pit stop for a loose wheel which dropped him a lap down. In terms of speed late in a run, Truex ranked as the 5th fastest. In the three Darlington races prior to that, Truex had the best driver rating, a 6.0 average running position and a 6.7 average finish. One attribute you have to love about Truex, is how well the #19 team is running. Over the last eight races heading into the weekend he’s finished in the top four every race and has a 2.9 average finish. On Sunday, look for Truex to compete for a top five.
