NASCAR 2020 Playoff “Driver Survivor” First Round Elimination Odds
Kevin Harvick – .1%, Kevin Harvick is starting the Playoffs with 57 points in the bank. That’s nearly a max points day. For him to miss the 2nd round, he’ll need to have three catastrophic races.
Denny Hamlin – 1%, Denny Hamlin has 47 points to his name already in the Playoffs and the first three tracks are all great for him. There’s no way he’ll disappoint, he waits until the season finale to do that.
Brad Keselowski – 1%, Brad Keselowski has the third most Playoff points to his name (29), so don’t look for him to make an early exit. The opening round is full of great tracks for him and there’s no way he’ll rank in the bottom quarter of the Playoff field.
Joey Logano – 1%, Joey Logano always makes deep runs into the Playoffs, and I don’t see why that won’t be the case again. Since August minus Daytona, Logano has a 6.7 average finish.
Chase Elliott – 5%, Chase Elliott has 20 points to his name and I don’t see him being an early out. The #9 team is running well and since August minus Dover #2 where he wrecked early he has a 5.5 average finish.
Martin Truex Jr. – 1%, Martin Truex Jr. has consistently been clicking off good results and heading into the weekend he has 8 straight top 4 results. I don’t think he’ll disappoint, and next week at Richmond he’ll be the favorite after his season sweep in 2019.
Ryan Blaney – 20%, It’s all about the schedule, and the schedule is pretty grim for Ryan Blaney in round #1. By means of average finish the three tracks in round #1 rank as his 22nd, 23rd and 24th worst tracks since 2017. After a penalty, Blaney is now starting the Playoffs with just 3 points in the bank!
Alex Bowman – 30%, Alex Bowman limped into the Playoffs and last week he finally notched his first pair of back to back top tens this season. I think he’s ripe for an early exit bounce. Richmond which is coming up next week ranks as one of his worst tracks.
William Byron – 20%, William Byron is fresh off a trip to victory lane and I like how well he’s been running lately. Since Kansas minus Dover #1 his average finish is 8.6 and he’s had a result in the top 14 every race. I think Byron has a pretty good chance to advance.
Austin Dillon – 45%, I think Austin Dillon has pretty good odds to get bounced out early. If he makes it through the opening round it will be by a slim margin, and you can then pencil him in for an exit in round #2.
Cole Custer – 51%, I think Custer is a pretty easy out in round #1. He doesn’t have very many Playoff points (5) to his name, and I think he’s just happy to be there. Earlier this season he didn’t run well at either Darlington or Bristol which comprise 2/3rds of the first round.
Aric Almirola – 20%, Aric Almirola’s consistency has fallen off and in 4 of the last 6 races he’s finished 16th or worse. He picked a really bad time to drop off. That said, I think he has a good chance to advance.
Clint Bowyer – 30%, The schedule is pretty great for Clint Bowyer in round #1, but the #14 team is lacking in terms of performance in recent months. Since July, Bowyer only has two top tens and in 9 of the 11 races he’s finished between 11th to 19th.
Kyle Busch – 15%, I really think Kyle Busch is on “Early Exit Alert.” Since NASCAR returned in May, Busch hasn’t strung three straight results of 19th or better once. He only has three Playoff points to his name so there’s no margin for error, and a lot of errors have been happening to him on a pretty consistent basis. If the defending series champion misses the 2nd round, just remember that it’s 2020.
Kurt Busch – 20%, Kurt Busch has 1 Playoff point to his name and he’s sort of limping into the post-season. Since August, Busch hasn’t finished better than 10th. If he has one bad race, he’ll be in big trouble.
Matt DiBenedetto – 30%, There’s one unique thing about Matt DiBenedetto heading into the post-season and it’s that he has ZERO Playoff points. You can’t say that about anybody else. Right now, “Performance Wise”, the #21 team is about a low double-digit to mid-teens team. That might sneak him into the 2nd round when you take account others having trouble.
