Las Vegas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Driver Breakdowns
1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 1st)
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick will be a favorite at Las Vegas. He’s been one of the premiere performers at “Sin City”, and this year at high-speed intermediate tracks where tire wear is low to minimal, nobody has been better. On Sunday, look for Harvick to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Las Vegas Track History – Kevin Harvick has been a fantasy ace at Las Vegas. Since 2018 minus fall 2018 where he wrecked he has a 3.8 average finish, a 3.0 average running position, he’s averaged leading 110.3 laps per race and his driver rating ranks as the best by a wide margin. This spring at Las Vegas, Harvick finished 3rd in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, 8th overall, had a 3.4 average running position and led a race high 92 laps. I’ll note, Harvick’s strength was being good over short runs, after about 15 laps he started to fade. His green flag average speed ranked as the 5th best, but over long runs he was the 12th best. Last fall, Harvick had a great car that ranked as one of the best. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, earned the best driver rating, had the best average running position (4th), led 47 laps, finished 2nd in Stage #1 and finished 4th in Stage #2. Also from the race I’ll note he had the 2nd best Green Flag Average Speed and ranked as the 4th Fastest Late In A Run. In spring 2019, Harvick had a strong showing from the pole. In the race he earned the best driver rating, finished 4th, had a 3rd place average running position and led 88 laps. Additionally, he finished 1st in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2.
Similar Track Success – This year at high-speed intermediate tracks where tire wear is low to minimal, Kevin Harvick has been elite. Over those eight combined races he’s won twice (both at Michigan), has 5 top fives, he’s finished in the top ten every race and his average finish is a series best 4.9. Everyone else is +9.5 or higher. At the last three 1.5 mile tracks visited he’s come home with results of 4th (Kentucky), 5th (Texas) and 4th (Kansas). At Michigan, the most recent high-speed intermediate track visited he pulled out the broom and won both races.
DraftKings $11,700 / FanDuel $13,500
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2) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 12th)
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – Brad Keselowski should be high on your radar at Las Vegas. At “Sin City”, Keselowski’s been the definition of consistent and since 2013 he’s finished in the top 7 every race and has an impressive 3.6 average finish. In 3 of the last 4 Las Vegas races, he’s finished in the top 3. With how well Keselowski has been running in recent races at high-speed intermediate tracks, I think it’s clear he’s poised for a strong showing. On Sunday, look for Keselowski to be a top five contender.
Las Vegas Track History – Brad Keselowski is an elite performer at Las Vegas who ranks among the best. He’s a three-time winner and since 2013 his average finish is an impressive 3.6. Over the last four Las Vegas races, Keselowski has a series best 4.5 average finish, he’s averaged leading 23 laps per race and his driver rating ranks as the 4th best. This spring at Las Vegas, Keselowski was solid, but it wasn’t one of his better Las Vegas races. When the checkered flag waved he finished 7th and had an 11.1 average running position. Over the race his car got better and better. Last fall, Keselowski was M.I.A for the first two Stages, but at the end he was at his best and drove up to a 3rd place finish. His average running position for the evening was 14th. In spring 2019, Keselowski had a great car and finished runner-up. Additionally, he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 7th place average running position, led 17 laps, finished 10th in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. On the final lap he made a serious charge for the win, but teammate Logano prevailed. In fall 2018, Keselowski had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. In the race he earned the 2nd best driver rating, led the 2nd most laps (75) and won Stage #2.
Similar Track Success – Brad Keselowski has been a standout performer at 1.5 mile tracks this year. He snuck in a win at Charlotte, but his primary strength has been his consistency. In 2020 at 1.5 mile tracks he’s a perfect 8 for 8 at finishing in the top ten and his average finish is a series best 6.8. I will note, the #2 team has found more speed in recent races at low to minimal tire wear intermediate tracks. In the last three races on this sub-track type he’s finished 2nd (Kansas), 2nd (Michigan #1) and at Michigan #2 he wrecked while battling for the lead. That performance at Kansas is pretty notable. It was a night race like Las Vegas, and I also think its the most similar track on the schedule.
DraftKings $11,400 / FanDuel $13,000
3) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 11th)
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is a phenomenal performer at Las Vegas who’ll be tough to beat. He’s the defending champion, and this spring he had one of the best cars only to walk away with an asterisk mark result. In the five Las Vegas races prior to this spring his 3.4 average finish was tied with Brad Keselowski for being a series best. On Sunday, look for Truex Jr. to be a factor to win.
Las Vegas Track History – Martin Truex Jr. ranks as one of the best at Las Vegas. This spring he finished 20th, but make no mistake he had one of the best cars. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 but then in the final Stage trouble happened. He won the race off pit road following Stage #2, but then he immediately came back to pit road to tighten lug nuts. Then around lap 175 while he was battling his way back to the front he had contact with the wall and then had a tire rub. Last fall, Truex Jr. reeled in Kevin Harvick late and then raced his way to victory lane from the 24th place starting position. From the race I’ll note he finished 8th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 32 laps and ranked as the Fastest Driver late In A Run and had the best Green Flag Average Speed. In spring 2019 when the new 2019 aero rules package made it’s debut, he didn’t run nearly as well, but he managed to finish a respectable 8th. In the three races prior to that his results were 3rd, 4th and 1st.
Similar Track Success – Martin Truex Jr. and the #19 team have been elite at high-speed intermediate tracks. At low to minimal tire wear venues this year minus Texas where he crashed and Las Vegas where he had problems his average finish is an impressive 4.5. Over his last four incident free races at these venues his results are 3rd (Michigan #2), 3rd (Michigan #1), 3rd (Kansas) and 2nd (Kentucky). To highlight Kansas a little more since it’s the most similar track to Las Vegas, and also the most recent 1.5 mile track visited he ranked as the Fastest Driver Late In A Run, had the 2nd best Green Flag Average Speed and led 44 laps.
DraftKings $10,600 / FanDuel $13,200
