Kansas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Driver Breakdowns
1) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 7th)
Kansas Fantasy Spin – At Kansas, Denny Hamlin will be a favorite. He has back to back Kansas wins, and at Las Vegas the most recent 1.5 mile track visited he was the driver to beat until he was burned by a late caution. Over the last four races held at intermediate tracks where tire wear is low to minimal, Hamlin has a series best 3.0 average finish. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Kansas Track History – Denny Hamlin has been a stellar performer at Kansas. He has back to back wins and in 4 of the last 6 races he’s finished in the top 5. This spring at Kansas, Denny Hamlin came up clutch and made a late pass for the win. In addition to finishing 1st he led 57 laps, had a 3.1 average running position, finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2 and ranked as the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Last fall, Hamlin had a stellar showing and raced his way to victory lane from the 23rd place starting position. In the race he finished 8th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 4.6 average running position and led 153 laps. In spring 2019, Joe Gibbs Racing as an organization was down on speed and he simply didn’t have a good race. He finished 16th and had a 20th place average running position.
Recent Similar Track Success – Denny Hamlin has been stellar at intermediate tracks where tire wear is low to minimal in recent races. Since Kansas where he of course raced his way to victory lane, Hamlin’s finished in the top 6 every race and has a series best 3.0 average finish. At Las Vegas a few weeks ago, Hamlin led 121 laps and was poised to likely win until he was burned by a caution. When that race reached its conclusion he finished 3rd.
DraftKings $10,600 / FanDuel $13,500
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2) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 4th)
Kansas Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick should prominently be on your fantasy NASCAR radar at Kansas. It’s been a great track for him, and this year at similar tracks he’s been one of the premiere performers. On Sunday, look for Harvick to be a top five contender who’ll compete for the win.
Kansas Track History – Kevin Harvick has performed at a high-level at Kansas. Since 2016, Harvick’s won twice, has a series best 5.8 average finish and in 5 of the 9 races he’s finished in the top 4. This summer at Kansas, Harvick was good, but not great. In the race he finished 7th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, led 9 laps, finished 4th overall and ranked as the 8th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In the race, Harvick had great short run speed, but over long runs he dropped off. Last fall, Harvick started 40th, had a 13th place average running position and finished 9th. It was a cut-off race so his only goal really was to avoid having a disaster. Last spring at Kansas, Harvick had a great car and ranked #1 in our PROS Rankings, but finished a misleading 13th. In the race he started on the pole, led 104 laps, won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2 and was likely the driver to beat, but around lap 178 while he was the leader he slowed on the track and made an unexpected pit stop because of a tire issue.
Recent Similar Track Success – Kevin Harvick has arguably been the most successful performer at 1.5 mile tracks this year. In 2020 at tracks of this length minus Homestead where he had problems, Harvick’s finished in the top ten every race and his average finish is 6th. At Las Vegas, a lot of goofy things happened and he finished 10th. In the three races prior to that his results were 4th (Kansas), 5th (Texas) and 4th (Kentucky). I’ll note, I consider Kansas to be a mini-Michigan and at that venue Harvick brought out the broom this summer and won both races.
DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $13,200
3) Chase Elliott (Starting – 1st)
Kansas Fantasy Spin – Polesitter, Chase Elliott will be a factor at Kansas. In recent races at Kansas, Elliott has been one of the premiere performers and he’s consistently run well. When you add in his recent strong performance at Las Vegas, I think it’s clear he’s poised to have a strong showing. On Sunday, I would view Elliott as a top five contender.
Kansas Track History – Chase Elliott is a recent winner at Kansas who’s finished in the top 4 in 3 of the last 4 races. Over those combined events, Elliott has a series best 4.8 average finish and the 2nd best average running position (7.8). This spring at Kansas, Elliott had a respectable race, but he was a little bit of a letdown. He finished 10th in Stage #2, 12th overall and ranked as the 9th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Last fall, Elliott had a great performance. He finished 2nd overall, had a 5.9 average running position, earned the 4th best driver rating, finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 5th in Stage #2. In terms of speed analytics, Elliott had the 7th best green flag average speed and ranked as the 7th fastest driver late in a run. In spring 2019, Elliott was a factor and was one of the drivers to beat. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 4th, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position and led 45 laps. Additionally, he finished 2nd in Stage #1 and won Stage #2. In fall 2018, Elliott had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. In addition to winning he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 7th place average running position and led 44 laps.
Recent Similar Track Success – Chase Elliott has been solid in recent races at high-speed intermediate tracks where tire wear is low to minimal, but his results are lacking. At Las Vegas, the most recent he was a top five contender, but finished a misleading 22nd because of how the end played out. In the four races prior to that he had results between 7th to 12th.
DraftKings $11,200 / FanDuel $13,000
