Texas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Driver Breakdowns
1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 1st)
Texas Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick is the premiere performer at Texas and in fall races he’s been especially strong having raced his way to victory lane in the last three. Not only is Harvick winning at Texas a lot, he’s also been remarkably been consistent and currently has 12 straight top tens. With how well Kevin Harvick has performed at similar tracks this year, I think its clear he’ll be the favorite, especially when you factor in that he’s starting 1st. On Sunday, look for Harvick to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Texas Track History – Kevin Harvick has been stellar at Texas, year in and year out despite rules changes, manufacturer changes and any other form of change. Over the last three Texas races with the current rules package, Harvick has a 4.7 average finish which ranks as a series best among drivers who competed in every race. This summer, Harvick had a great car. He started 5th, finished 5th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, led 40 laps, had a 7.7 average running position and ranked as the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Last fall, Harvick easily raced his way to victory lane from the pole. It was a track position race, and his car was trimmed out for speed. In addition to finishing 1st he earned the best driver rating, had a 6.1 average running position, led 119 laps, won Stage #1 and finished 6th in Stage #2. His Green Flag Average Speed for the afternoon ranked as the 2nd best. In spring 2019, Harvick finished 8th and had a 12th place average running position.
Recent Similar Track Success – Kevin Harvick is a fantasy ace at 1.5 mile tracks and for the season minus Homestead, he’s finished in the top ten every race and has a 5.6 average finish. Over the last six races at high-speed intermediate tracks (since Texas), Harvick has 5 top fives and a series best 3.8 average finish. At Kansas last week, Harvick finished 2nd, led 85 laps and had the best green flag average speed.
DraftKings $11,000 / FanDuel $14,000
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2) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 7th)
Texas Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin will be tough to beat at Texas. He’s a recent winner in the Lone Star State and at high-speed intermediate tracks this year a strong case could be made that he’s been the premiere performer. At Texas, Hamlin has had many disappointing results in recent races, but “2020 Denny Hamlin in Playoff mode” will be tough to beat. This weekend, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Texas Track History – Denny Hamlin won at Texas in spring 2019, but in his other four races since 2018 he’s finished 20th or worse. This summer, Hamlin had a great car and looked like a top five contender, but finished 20th after crumbling like a cookie at the end. In the race, Hamlin ranked as the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run, finished 3rd in Stage #2 and had an 8.9 average running position. In the race, Hamlin was in 2nd with 49 laps to go, but shortly after that he was burned by a caution during the pit cycle which put him back in the teens. That’s when the trouble started. With 15 laps to go while he was just outside the top ten he spun. Then with 7 laps to go he spun again. Last fall, Hamlin showed speed, but finished an asterisk mark 28th. On lap 80 while he was running in 6th he spun into the grass and destroyed his front splitter which ruined his afternoon. In spring 2019, Hamlin had a great car. He finished 1st, earned the 2nd best driver rating, won Stage #2 and led 45 laps. His win is a little more impressive when you take into account just after winning Stage #2 he got a pit penalty.
Recent Similar Track Success – At Kansas last week, Denny Hamlin was a contender to win, but finished a misleading 15th after having problems. In the four races at similar tracks prior to that he finished in the top 6 and had a 3.0 average finish.
DraftKings $10,800 / FanDuel $13,300
3) Chase Elliott (Starting – 4th)
Texas Fantasy Spin – Chase Elliott has won at Texas in NASCAR’s Xfinity series, in the Cup series he’s come close early in his career, but in 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished outside the top ten. That said, Elliott has showed a lot of speed at similar tracks this year so its wise to have high expectations. On Sunday, I would view Elliott as a top ten contender who’ll compete for a top five.
Texas Track History – Chase Elliott started his career hot at Texas with four straight top tens, since then over the last five races he only has 1 top ten, but he’s frequently finished just short of that mark. This summer, Elliott started in the rear of the field, finished 7th in Stage #1, 12th overall, had a 13.1 average running position and ranked as the 10th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Last fall, Elliott had a short afternoon and on lap 9 while he was running in 12th he got into the wall hard which was a knock out blow leading to his 32nd place finish. In spring 2019, Elliott finished 13th, but I’ll note he was better than his result. He earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 9th place average running position and led 35 laps.
Recent Similar Track Success – Chase Elliott has showed up with a lot of speed at high-speed intermediate tracks in the Playoffs. At Las Vegas, Elliott was top five good, but finished a misleading 22nd. At Kansas, Elliott led 48 laps and finished 6th.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $12,500
