NASCAR Week 1 Power Rankings

After a predictably crazy Daytona 500 I won’t overreact to what we saw in Week 1. Lots of drivers got taken out early and a lot of them got taken out late as well. Only the lucky few made it all 500 miles to the checkered flag.

This week we have the Daytona Road Course which we got a great look at during the Clash last week. Slight bump to drivers that did well and have performed well on the road in the past including the 9, 11, 12, and 19.

Week 1 Power Rankings

1) (last week 1) Chase Elliott – Chase came within inches of winning the Daytona 500 and arguably would have won had the caution been thrown a second or two later. No reason to move him off the top spot here with his favorite track type coming up.
2) (2) Denny Hamlin – Denny had another great showing at Daytona winning stage 1 & 2, but the last pit stop caught the Toyotas towards the back of the draft and Hamlin couldn’t recover in time. He looked great on the road course last week, can he dethrone the 9 car for the top spot?
3) (3) Kevin Harvick – Harvick finished a relatively quiet 4th in the 500 as he avoided both enormous crashes. Kevin led 17 laps and kept his car in one piece, and that’s about as much as you can ask for at Daytona. I was surprised when I discovered this but Kevin has the third best average finish (8.1) and driver rating (100.3) at road courses since 2018. Look for him to have another good result on Sunday.
4) (4) Kyle Busch – Kyle got caught out just like Denny did at the end of the 500 finishing a frustrating 14th. The good news is that the JGR squad ran well at the road course last week, including the 18 car that lucked into a victory. Lets see if that momentum carries into this week.
5) (6) Martin Truex Jr. – Martin likely would’ve won the clash had he not beat himself with a late penalty. He has the best average finish (4.6) and second best driver rating (122.1) over the last 3 years on road courses. He has two wins and seven Top 10’s in eight races, which is remarkable. I haven’t seen odds yet, but I predict Truex Jr. and Elliott will be big favorites this week.
6) (8) Ryan Blaney – Blaney has been the lone bright spot for the Penske camp on the road with a win and four Top 5’s in his last eight races. He had a bit of a rough go at Daytona Road Course last year finishing 31st. However, last week the 12 car had the lead in the Clash going into the last chicane before being wrecked.
7) (5) Joey Logano – Logano got dumped on the last lap while leading the 500 and ended up in the middle of a fireball in turn 4. Unfortunately for the 22 car, the bad news continues. Right turns are not Joey’s forte so he will have to work hard for a good result this weekend. Only one Top 5 in his last eight road course starts.
8) (7) Brad Keselowski – Kes raced Logano hard in the final lap of the Daytona 500, which is what both drivers love doing. As you saw, that strategy has its downside as well. Their driving style isn’t all these two have in common, they both struggle on the road course. Kes is only slightly better than Logano, so Penske may have a rough weekend.
9) (11) Kurt Busch – Kurt is a very good road course driver with an average finish of 10.1 over the last three years. After finishing 22nd in the 500, can he turn it around this week at Daytona?
10) (12) William Byron – When it comes to recent road races, Willy B has been HOT! In his last four races he has lead 50 laps and finished Top 8 each time. Will this be a bounce-back spot after an early crash in the 500?
11) (9) Aric Almirola – Aric was on top of the world after he won his duel on Thursday night. That changed on lap 13 of the Daytona 500 when he was helped into the wall, which caused over a dozen cars to turn into twisted metal. Almirola hasn’t been great on the road, finishing in the Top 10 only twice in his last 8 races, with zero Top 5’s. He’s Mr. Consistent so I don’t expect a bad finish Sunday, but I don’t foresee a good one either.
12) (10) Alex Bowman – Bowman had a roller coaster week with a front row qualifying run followed by a questionable engine going into the 500. That engine issue didn’t matter as he was swept up in the early carnage, finishing 35th. Alex is a bit of a conundrum on the road as he has the fifth best average finish (9.6) but owns the 15th best driver rating (83.4) since 2018. I believe the math nerds would suggest that we see the “R-Word” soon and I’m not talking about the Washington Football Team. Will there be regression this week with the 88?
13) (13) Matt DiBenedetto – DiBenedetto had a disappointing early exit in the 500, but he may be able to turn it around on the road course. He has a better average finish than Keselowski, Logano, Almirola, Byron, and Kyle Busch over the last eight road races.
14) (14) Christopher Bell – Bell led the second most laps during the Daytona 500, but a few rookie mistakes tripped him up. His road course resume isn’t great in the Cup Series. He has finishes of 21st and 24th in two starts. Last fall at the Roval he led six laps, finished 2nd in stage one and 3rd in stage two, but ran into trouble in the final stage that led to a disappointing finish. In his final year of the XFinity series, Christopher had three Top 2’s including a win on the road.
15) (17) Kyle Larson – Kyle managed a 10th place finish in the 500 even though he got caught up in the mess on the last lap. Larson is a very good road racer with the fourth best average finish (98.0) over the last three years. Lets see if he can get his redemption tour some buzz with a good finish on Sunday.

One Lap Down:

Cole Custer – Cole was the worst of the XFinity studs in 2019 as Reddick, Bell and Cindric consistently outperformed him on the road circuit. Cole wasn’t much better in his rookie Cup season with finishes of 9th & 22nd.

Tyler Reddick – Reddick rode it home missing half of his car in the 500 as he limped to a 27th place finish. He was a top tier road course racer in the XFinity series, but not as good as Bell and Cindric.

Bubba Wallace –  Bubba had some growing pains in his first week at Daytona. Let’s see if he can find some of that JGR road course speed and finish well despite not racing in the clash last week.

Michael McDowell – HoW cAn tHe DaYtOnA 500 WiNneR Not Be RanKeD?! I determine my Power Rankings by past success as well as predicted future success. McDriver has exactly one win in 358 Cup Series starts, and that is no typo. He has been a middle of the pack racer for ten years now and I expect that to return. If he shows a good result at the road course this weekend, he should break into the Top 15, but I’m not expecting it.