Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Predictions
On Sunday at Phoenix, race #5 of the 2021 NASCAR season will commence. In this early season “Duel In The Desert”, the stakes will be high since in November the championship will be settled here. All the top teams will be bringing their “A-Game”, and there’s a great chance some will be experimenting since they’ll be focused on the “Winner Take All” grand prize in November.
Phoenix is a 1-mile D-shaped oval and I classify it as a “shorter-flat track.” Other shorter-flat tracks that I consider comparable are Richmond and New Hampshire. Last year at shorter-flat tracks there was some super standouts, and five drivers had a sub 6.0 Track Type Total Speed Ranking, so make sure you put those drivers on your fantasy radar.
This year at ifantasyrace.com we’re committed to writing about the full field every week. In previous weeks, “Super Low-Tier” drivers were in this post. Now they have their own separate post, so check it out! Super Low Tier – Phoenix.
Here’s the STARTING LINEUP for Phoenix. Chase Elliott won from the pole last fall, but take note he actually started in the rear of the field. In the six Phoenix races prior to that the average starting position of a winner was 7.2.
Final Top 25 Rankings For Las Vegas (and content on all notables)
1) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 1st)
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – Polesitter, Brad Keselowski has never won at Phoenix, but he’s primed to have a strong showing. Last fall he had a phenomenal car at Phoenix, and in 2020 at shorter-flat tracks over the combined races he was the premiere performer. Last year over the four races held on this sub-track type, Keselowski won twice, had a 3.8 average finish and his Total Speed Ranking was the best with him ranking 1st, 2nd and 1st over the final three races. On Sunday, look for Keselowski to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Phoenix Track History – Phoenix is a good track for Brad Keselowski and he’s come close to victory lane in the past. He finished runner-up last fall and in 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished in the top 11. Last fall, Chase Elliott had a high-light reel performance, but a strong case could be made that Keselowski actually had the best car. In the race, Keselowski passed Elliott for the win for Stage #2, finished 2nd overall, led 16 laps, was tied for having the best Total Speed Ranking, had the best Green Flag Average Speed and was also the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Slow pit stops time after time held him back and kept him out of contention. In spring 2020, Keselowski finished 11th, but he was better than his result. In the race, Keselowski was involved in an early caution while running in the top five, but he battled back and won Stage #2. Then near the end he made a horrible decision and pitted for fresh tires which was the wrong decision. With 20 laps to go he was the race leader. With 10 to go which was shortly before the caution in which he pitted he was in 3rd. From the race I’ll note Keselowski led 82 laps, ranked as the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2019, Keselowski was about 10th place good in both races. In fall 2019 the number you need to know about him is 10. He finished 10th, had a 10th place average running position, earned the 10th best driver rating and ranked as the 10th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2019 he finished 19th. I’ll note that’s a misleading result because he had a parts failure. On lap 50 while he was running in 9th he started to complain that something was wrong with his car. Then on lap 64 after he had fallen back into the 20’s he slammed into the wall hard. In fall 2018 he finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 32 laps.
DraftKings $10,400/ FanDuel $12,500
2) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 3rd)
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – NASCAR points leader, Denny Hamlin is one of the premiere performers at Phoenix and on Sunday he’ll be one of the drivers to beat. In the desert, Hamlin’s a recent winner (fall 2019) and in 3 of the last 4 races he’s finished in the top 5. Last year at shorter-flat tracks which correlate to success, Hamlin was one of the best and for the season minus Phoenix #1 where he had problems he had a 6.0 average finish and over the final three races his average speed ranking was also 6th. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to compete for the win.
Phoenix Track History – Denny Hamlin has been one of the most successful performers at Phoenix and since 2018 minus last spring he has a 5.4 average finish and a 5.4 average running position. Last fall when Hamlin was competing for the championship he had a strong showing, but was the least competitive of the championship contenders. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, 4th overall and had a 3.2 average running position. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking, but he did fall off a little over the course of the race. His speed over the segments were 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th. Also in the race he ranked as the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 4th best Green Flag Average Speed. In spring 2020, Hamlin was likely a top five contender, but finished an asterisk mark 20th. In the opening Stage while he was running near 5th he crashed and the damage held him back all afternoon. In fall 2019, Hamlin needed a win and he dominated in the desert. In the race he finished 1st, earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position, led a race high 142 laps, had the best Green Flag Average Speed and ranked as the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Additionally, Hamlin won Stage #1 and finished 2nd in Stage #2. In spring 2019, Hamlin was strong. He finished 5th, had a 7th place average running position and finished 5th in Stage #2.
DraftKings $9,900/ FanDuel $13,000
