NASCAR Power Rankings Week 5 – Atlanta 

The big boys showed up in Phoenix as the Top 9 finishers are the same Top 9 drivers in the points standings. Martin Truex Jr. ultimately pulled away from the competition to get his first victory since last June in Martinsville. This week we head to Atlanta for a high tire wear 1.5 mile intermediate track. In the last three races here, Kevin Harvick has two wins and a 4th Place finish while leading 377 laps and holding the highest driver rating (135.1) by far. After five races, we have five different winners. Let’s see if we can make it six out of six this weekend in the Peach State.

For reference, I will use Ryan’s Track Type tool quite a bit in this article. Similar high tire wear tracks to Atlanta include Auto Club, Darlington, and Homestead which hosted six total races last year. Including Homestead this year we have seven data points that should give us a pretty good idea of who will find the best speed this weekend. Whether you love or hate my rankings, let me know on Twitter @danlavoy

1) (Last week 1, Avg Finish 5.2) Denny Hamlin – After another Top 3 finish, Hamlin secures his #1 ranking for yet another week. He now has an incredible four Top 5s and his worst finish was 11th at Miami.

2) (2, 9.4) Martin Truex Jr. – Amazing job at Phoenix by the entire 19 team. James Small built the best car on the track and the pit crew even put the tires on the correct side every stop! If they want to win the Cup Championship in November, they will need a repeat performance.

3) (7, 8.0) Brad Keselowski – Keselowski has three Top 5s already on the young season. Last year he was sixth fastest on high wear tracks. Look for the #2 car to contend for yet another Top 5 on Sunday.

4) (3, 8.2) Kevin Harvick – The #4 team hasn’t been their dominant selves this year leading only 17 laps in five races. However, Harvick has finished Top 6 in every race but Vegas and holds the third best average finish on the young season. He’s headed to his best track this weekend and I can’t wait for odds to be released so I can bet on him.

5) (4, 11.0) Chase Elliott – The reigning Cup Champion hasn’t had success in the box score in Atlanta with zero Top 5s in five races. Lucky for Chase, he had the best green flag speed on high wear tracks last year. If he can find the late run speed as well, he will also find the Winner’s Circle in ATL.

6) (6, 10.4) Kyle Larson – Larson has four Top 10 finishes this year and appears to have found his groove in a Hendrick car. He only raced one high wear track last year before he was fired from Chip Ganassi racing. He ranked fifth in green flag speed this spring at Homestead. Will that success continue in Atlanta?

7) (10, 10.6) Christopher Bell – Bell has been inconsistent this year with a win, three Top 10s and two finishes outside the Top 15. He lacked speed this spring at Homestead ranking 23rd in green flag and late run speed. I won’t take into account last years results driving the inferior #95 car. Let’s hope Adam Stevens & co. can improve their results on high wear tracks this weekend.

8) (9, 15.2) William Byron – Byron has three consecutive Top 10s including his win at Homestead. He struggled to find speed at high wear tracks early in 2020, but has since finished Top 7 in speed in his last three high wear races. He boasted the fourth best green flag speed this spring at Homestead as well as the fourth best late run speed.

9) (8, 17.8) Ryan Blaney – YRB has back-to-back Top 10s after a disappointing start to the season. Last year Blaney had Top 7 speed at Auto Club, Atlanta and Homestead but really struggled at Darlington. Which #12 car will show up in Atlanta?

10) (NR, 13.6) Kurt Busch – The kinder of the Busch brothers cracks the Top 10 this week as Rowdy is nowhere to be seen. Kurt had the best green flag and late run speed at Homestead this spring. That was likely due to making a late unscheduled pit stop for fresh tires. He somehow fought back to finish 8th place. He’s ranked in the Top 10 of green flag speed in five of the last seven high wear races. Look for the Monster #1 car to compete for another Top 10 in Atlanta.

One Lap Down: (5, 17.4) Kyle Busch – Rowdy has had a rough go of it in 2021 ranking 15th in points and average finish. His lone single digit finish was a 3rd Place in Vegas. He had the second fastest green flag speed last year in Atlanta. I’m sure he will get it figured out with a new crew chief, but will it be this week?