Bristol Dirt Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Predictions

This weekend for the first time in 50 years, NASCAR’s premiere series will be racing on dirt, at “Bristol Dirt.” The last driver to win on dirt in a Cup car was Richard Petty in 1970!

Until yesterday, nobody drove a Cup car around Bristol Dirt, and that led to Competition Rule Changes made on Saturday which will essentially break up the race into five 50 lap segments. That change is being made because of unexpected high tire wear in practice.

Just because Bristol Dirt is new and represents a great unknown, doesn’t mean a game plan can’t be laid out.

In terms of variables I want in a pick at Bristol dirt I want drivers who 1) Have dirt racing experience (not talking about dirt ringers here) 2) Drivers who showed potential in practice 3) Drivers who are running well right now and have showed speed week in and week out in 2021.

This week for the first time in over a year, NASCAR held practice sessions (I don’t count Daytona). Make sure you check out our Happy Hour and Practice #1 Notes. Here’s Happy Hour Speeds and Practice #1 Speeds.

If you really want to find out who was good over an extended run in Happy Hour, check out our member exclusive Happy Hour 10,15,20 and 25 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s the STARTING LINEUP for Bristol Dirt!

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Full Field Bristol Dirt Rankings!

1) Alex Bowman (Starting – 7th / DraftKings $7,700 / FanDuel $8,200 )

Alex Bowman enjoys dirt racing, and as you seen in Dirt Track Resumes #4, he had a great quote about his love for it. On Sunday, I think Bowman will be one of the drivers to beat. He’s one of the best in the business at running the high-line, and it also doesn’t hurt that the #48 team is clicking off good results on a weekly basis. In practice, Bowman liked his car and was quick in both sessions. In Happy Hour, Bowman had the 5th best 10 lap average. Following that run he told his crew chief his car is really, really good. In practice #1, Bowman had the 2nd best ten lap average. In the opening session, TV analyst Bowyer said the #48 was rotating really well. At the end of that session during an interview, Bowman said he was pretty happy with his car.

2) Kyle Larson (Starting – REAR of the field, but will be scored from 1st / DraftKings $12,000 / FanDuel $14,000 )

Kyle Larson is one of the premiere dirt racers in America and at Bristol Dirt, look for Larson to be the class of the field. I’ll note, Larson has certainly increased his level of difficulty and on Sunday he’ll be starting in the rear of the field due to an engine change. In practice, the #5 was fast. In Happy Hour, Larson had the best 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 lap averages. In practice #1, Larson also had the best 10 and 15 lap averages. Larson has some other advantages heading into Sunday. He’s doing double-duty this weekend racing in the Truck series (now scheduled after Cup, but he did get extra practice time), and he also raced last week at Bristol during the Dirt Nationals. In the Bristol Dirt Nationals, Larson won his Heat Race and then finished 2nd in his Feature. At Eldora in the Truck Series, Larson has been strong. In 2013 when the track made its debut he finished 2nd and led 51 laps. In 2016 when he made his most recent start he finished 1st and led 48 laps.

3) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 2nd / DraftKings $9,100 / FanDuel $11,500 )

Denny Hamlin and the #11 team have performed at a high-level, week in and week out in 2021. In 5 of the 6 races he’s finished between 3rd to 5th and over the combined races the #11 team is statistically the 2nd fastest car in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Showing up with speed on a weekly basis is big, because it shows the #11 team knows how to hit the right setup. When it comes to dirt racing, Hamlin has very limited experience which was a long time ago, but he’s going into the race with a “Learning” attitude. In practice, the #11 showed up with speed. In Happy Hour, Hamlin had the 2nd best 10 lap average, the 4th best 15 lap average and the 3rd best 20 lap average. In practice #1 his ten lap average was the 6th best.