NASCAR Betting – Geico 500 at Talladega

Superspeedway tracks bring a unique racing style that also requires a unique betting style. Instead of targeting driver matchups, Top 10s, or any other prop, this week we will be looking (almost) strictly at betting the winner. These tracks are very unpredictable and can produce winners with very long odds. There’s not much value in betting the favorites this week like Hamlin (+650) or Logano (9-1). Instead let’s take a stab at a few lower tier guys that we know have had success at superspeedways.

If you are new to NASCAR betting, I wouldn’t bet more than one unit on any of these drivers. The only exception I have so far is Matty D at 66-1 where I have 2 units. Everyone else is a half unit or one unit. Don’t blow your bankroll on a bunch of longshots. These are in order of odds, not in order of my favorites by any means.

William Byron (20-1) – Byron got his first Cup Series win at Daytona. 20-1 is about the shortest odds I will bet someone this weekend and Byron is right there.

Ryan Newman (30-1) – Newman was close to winning the Daytona 500 last year. Unfortunately, it was a matter of inches and he wrecked instead. In one of the most dangerous crashes in recent NASCAR history, he still finished in 9th Place. He has the aggressiveness to win, so I’ll happily take him at 30-1 in what would be one of the best redemption stories NASCAR has ever produced.

Austin Dillon (33-1) – Austin excels at superspeedways, and typically finds himself near the front on the last lap of the race. He has won the Daytona 500 before so we know he can get it done. With odds like this, I’ll take a chance we see the #3 care in victory lane on Sunday.

Bubba Wallace (35-1) – Bubba and the #23 team have been a major disappointment so far this year, but anything can happen at Talladega. I don’t love his odds at 35-1 so this is a smaller bet. But if he can run well in the #43, I’m confident he can do the same in his 23XI car. UPDATE: Bubba was briefly listed at 45-1 on Wednesday. I placed another small bet on him at 45-1. His odds now are hovering around 30-1.

Ryan Preece (35-1) – Preece has never finished worse than 18th here in four races, including two Top 5’s. Anytime you have a lower tier guy with that resume, you have to pull the trigger at longer odds. He also finished 6th in his Duel this spring at Daytona and 5th in the Daytona 500.

Erik Jones (40-1) – Jones already has one Cup win at a superspeedway. He also has looked pretty good in the #43 car this year, although it doesn’t have the same funding as the big teams. At this track, it doesn’t matter. Bubba Wallace ran well in this ride for a few years at superspeedways.

Chris Buescher (45-1) – This is the PJ Walsh special. He seemingly bets the Buesch man every time they race at a superspeedway, and it makes sense. Chris is a very capable speedway driver and typically carries very long odds. He will win one of these races eventually, will it be this weekend? He won Stage 1 at Dega last fall, albeit during a yellow flag, but he was running towards the front and was in the right spot at the right time. UPDATE: I have added him Top 10 at +200 as of Friday morning.

Matt DiBenedetto (66-1) – I will be joining the Skybox bandwagon this week and betting on his favorite driver. At 66-1 he will be one of my favorite bets of the week. Penske cars tend to run together and work their way towards the front of the pack at superspeedways. Matty D has a tendency to get washed out since he doesn’t quite have the same talent as Logano, Keselowski and Blaney. But with these odds, and him running a Penske satellite car, I’ll definitely take my chances. Does anyone else recall a driver winning at 66-1 odds this year? (Hint: Daytona RC) UPDATE: DiBenedetto’s odds have plummeted throughout the week. There is still some 40-1 available in the market but I also see him as low as 28-1. I am #blessed to get two units down on him at 66-1 early in the week.

Corey LaJoie (100-1) – Corey has had a really rough season so far driving in a Spire Motorsports car, but I know he is more than capable at superspeedways. He finished 9th in this year’s Daytona 500 and 8th in last year’s edition. At 100-1, I couldn’t pass up a small bet for him to win. He may also be a rare candidate for a Top 10 finish if his odds are anywhere near this high. UPDATE: I did grab him for a Top 10 at +350, which I really like.

_________

Here are some guys that I like, but the odds aren’t good enough to bet…yet.

Ryan Blaney (10-1) – Blaney was very impressive last year at Talladega, but at only 10-1, odds are just too short for me.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (15-1) – At these odds, I’m not a big fan of Ricky. I will definitely keep an eye on his odds as well as possibly winning a stage. At this number, it’s a no bet. Stenhouse T10 is available at +120, which I like but don’t love. I would rather take my chances a T3 +500 but I will hold off for now. UPDATE: I have added Stenhouse to win Stage 1 at 18-1. Early in the race there are a lot of drivers who hang back to try to avoid “the big one.” Ricky will not be hanging back. He is arguably the most aggressive superspeedway driver, so he will take all the risks he can to lead early in the race.

Almirola (15-1) – Aric was leading last fall when he was wrecked at the end of Stage 1. Prior to that crash he had eight straight Top 10s at Talladega, including a win. He may be decent value for a Top 10, but I don’t see that happening if he’s 15-1 to win. Even at 15-1, it’s not for me, but I’ll keep him on my radar for sure. UPDATE: I added Almirola Top 10 at +105 Friday morning. I am hoping he starts another streak of T10’s this weekend.

Kyle Busch (18-1) – To be honest I am just tailing RotoDoc on this one. He is way smarter than me, and I’ll take his word for it. Kyle is now listed at about 16-1, so find the best odds you can.

_____

One prop that caught my eye: Under 8.5 Cautions -115. Last race at Talladega set the record for most cautions in a race with 13. However, the previous five races had cautions of 8, 9, 6, and 8. The last four races at Daytona had cautions of 7, 6, 9 and 6. So that’s only three of the previous ten superspeedway races that had over 8.5 cautions. Yes, its a risky play since we know a “big one” can come at any time, and cautions breed more cautions. But that’s why we gamble, and I like this bet for two units.