Talladega Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Driver Breakdowns
On Sunday, NASCAR will race at Talladega! There’s one guarantee at Talladega, and its that things will get wild. At Talladega, we had a pair of last lap passes for the win in 2020, we’ve seen Carl Edwards literally jog to the finish line and quite often we see more than a third of the field sidelined due to attrition. That said, there’s definitely distinct finish trends at Talladega and it’s wise to observe them.
In terms of variables I want in a fantasy pick at Talladega I want …
- Drivers who have a good recent track record
- Drivers who’ve been good overall at superspeedways
- Drivers who are performing at a high-level week in and week out in 2021
At Talladega, you can never count out the little guys! Timmy Hill finished 15th last fall, so that should tell you something. Make sure you check out our Super Low Tier – Talladega post to read all about them because one of them will be a difference maker.
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Talladega Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
1) Denny Hamlin (Starting –1st )
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin is the premiere superspeedway racer in NASCAR and at Talladega, he’ll be the driver to beat. Last fall, Hamlin raced his way to victory lane and in 4 of the last 5 races at this “Wild Card” venue he’s finished in the top 4. Over that stretch minus spring 2019 when he wrecked his average finish is 3rd. In the Daytona 500 earlier this year, Hamlin led 98 laps, won both Stages and then finished 5th after inferior pit strategy at the end. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top contender.
Talladega Track History – Denny Hamlin is an elite performer at Talladega and in 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished in the top 4. Last fall, Hamlin had a stellar showing and raced his way to victory lane after making a last lap pass for the win. In addition to finishing 1st, Hamlin led 26 laps. In spring 2020, Hamlin finished 4th and led 18 laps. Whenever Hamlin wanted to get to the front, he was there. With 8 laps to go before the late cautions came out he was running in 2nd. In fall 2019, Hamlin had a great car and made a hard charge for the win late, but came up short. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 3rd. In spring 2019, Hamlin was involved in an early wreck just after lap 10 and that pretty much so doomed his afternoon and led to his 36th place finish. In 2018, Hamlin had results of 4th and 14th.
DraftKings $10,000 / FanDuel $12,500
Further Recommended Reading: Talladega Projected Finish Ranges
2) Chase Elliott (Starting – 8th)
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Chase Elliott will be tough to beat at Talladega. Elliott was the first winner here in the post-plate era, and “Performance Wise” over the combined events he’s without question been one of the best. In 3 of the 4 Talladega races with the current rules package, Elliott has finished in the top 8. Over those combined events minus last spring where he was wrecked while running in 4th his average finish is 4.6. In this years Daytona 500, Elliott finished runner-up. If Elliott can avoid trouble, look for him to be a factor to win.
Talladega Track History – Chase Elliott has been strong at Talladega. Last fall, Elliott led 41 laps, finished 6th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2 and then 5th when the checkered flag waved. In spring 2020, Elliott finished 38th, but I think he clearly had one of the best cars. With 56 laps to go while he was running in 4th he was wrecked while blocking Brad Keselowski. Also from the race I’ll note he finished 9th in Stage #1 and led 3 laps. In 2019, Elliott was one of three drivers who swept the top ten at Talladega. In fall 2019, Elliott started on the pole, led 19 laps and finished 8th. In spring 2019, Elliott had a great performance. He finished 1st, led a race high 44 laps, earned the 2nd best driver rating, finished 4th in Stage #1 and won Stage #2.
DraftKings $10,300 / FanDuel $11,700
3) Joey Logano (Starting –2nd )
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Joey Logano is a super-elite performer at Talladega who’ll be a favorite. He’s a three-time winner and since fall 2017 minus last fall where he ran well but wrecked, Logano has the 2nd best average finish (7.0), the best average running position (7.3) and the best driver rating. Over that seven race stretch, Logano had four top fives and only two results outside the top 11. When it comes to superspeedway racing, Logano is without question one of the best in the business and I view him as the perfect combination of smart and aggressive. Earlier this year in the Daytona 500, Logano was poised to win the “Great American Race” until he was turned on the last lap. At Talladega, look for Joey Logano to be a contender to win.
Talladega Track History – Talladega is a “Wild Card” venue, but Logano has thrived here and has consistently performed at a high-level. Last fall, Logano had a great car that I thought was subjectively the best (PROS Rankings), but he finished an asterisk mark 26th. In the race, Logano had the best driver rating, led a race high 45 laps, but unfortunately his race wasn’t incident free. Logano paced many of the closing laps and was the leader with 2 to go (scheduled distance), but then later that lap he crashed which led to his poor finish. In spring 2020, Logano was a standout performer but finished 17th. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, led 33 laps, had a race best 4.2 average running position but finished a misleading 17th. Fuel mileage came into the equation at the end, and that really hurt him since he had to pit for it which dropped him deep in the field late. With 8 laps to go he was running in 3rd. In fall 2019, Logano had a great car but finished a misleading 11th. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, led 16 laps but was involved in two accidents. At the time of his first one on lap 108 he was running in the top five. He didn’t get much damage from that, but later on lap 164 when he was once again racing in the top five, William Byron spun into him and he got a lot of damage. In spring 2019, Logano finished 4th. That’s a great result, but I think he should’ve won. He was the leader with 4 laps to go, but he made a bad block in the outside groove which cost him the race. In addition to finishing 4th he earned the 3rd best driver rating, led 37 laps and had an 8th place average running position. In the three races prior to that he had results of 5th, 1st and 4th.
DraftKings $9,800 / FanDuel $13,000
