The Super Low Tier – Kansas
Justin Haley (Starting – 31st) At Kansas, look for Justin Haley to be a high-twenties to low thirties driver. In 2021 minus Richmond where he had problems, Haley has a 28.3 average finish. Las Vegas is by far the most similar track visited this year and he finished 29th at that venue. At the other two 1.5 mile tracks visited this season he has results of 26th (Homestead) and 30th (Atlanta). At Kansas, Haley has no Cup starts on his resume.
BJ McLeod (Starting 30th) BJ McLeod is statistically one of the better super low tier drivers, but don’t get excited because he’s really only a low 30’s driver. This year minus the two superspeedways all of his results are between 29th to 34th. Las Vegas is the most similar track to Kansas visited this year and he finished 30th there. Last summer at Kansas in his most recent race, Houff finished 39th after having rear gear problems. In his three races prior to that he had results of 33rd, 35th and 30th.
Cody Ware (Starting 33rd) At Kansas, look for Cody Ware to be a high-twenties to low thirties driver. In 6 of the last 8 races he’s finished between 28th to 32nd. At Las Vegas this spring, Ware finished 32nd, had a 33.2 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 32nd best. At Kansas, Ware has one start on his resume and in spring 2019 he finished 40th after having some major problem.
Garrett Smithley (Starting 36th) At Kansas, look for Smithley to be a low to mid 30’s driver. This year at 1.5 mile tracks, Smithley has been in two races and has a pair of 31st place finishes. At Las Vegas, Smithley finished 31st, had a 31.9 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 31st best. At Kansas, Smithley has one start on his resume and last summer he finished 26th. That said, the attrition rate was sky high that evening and his Total Speed Ranking was the 37th best. In the 4th segment last summer, Smithley was the 30th fastest driver, but take note only 31 cars were on the track in that quarter of the race.
Quin Houff (Starting 34th) Quin Houff will have basement level fantasy value at Kansas. Over the last four races at 1.5 mile tracks where tire wear is low to minimal, Houff has a 33.3 average finish and the 36th best Total Speed Ranking. This year at 1.5 mile tracks, Houff has results of 33rd (Las Vegas), 33rd (Atlanta) and 35th (Homestead). Of those three, Las Vegas is the most similar. Last fall at Kansas, Houff finished 33rd. In summer 2020 when the attrition rate was high, Houff snuck in a 24th place finish.
Josh Bilicki (Starting 37th) At Kansas, look for Josh Bilicki to be about a mid 30’s driver. This year over the three races held at 1.5 mile tracks his average finish is 35th with all three of his results being between 33rd to 37th. At Las Vegas which is the most similar track visited he finished 35th and had a 35.8 average running position. At Kansas, Bilicki has three starts on his resume and two of his results are in the mid 30’s. Last fall, Bilicki finished 35th. In summer 2020 when the attrition rate was high he finished 25th. In fall 2019 when he made his track debut he finished 36th. Over the last four races held at 1.5 mile tracks where tire wear is low to minimal, Bilicki has the 37th best Total Speed Ranking. The only two drivers lower than him are Timmy Hill and Joey Gase.
Joey Gase (Starting 35th) Over the last four races held at 1.5 mile tracks where tire wear is low to minimal, Joey Gase has fielded the slowest car on the track. His Total Speed Ranking over those combined events is 37.8! That’s worse than Timmy Hill! Also over those four races, Gase has a 35.8 average finish and a 36.3 average running position. This spring at Las Vegas which is the most similar track visited, Gase finished 34th. At Kansas, Gase has finished 37th or worse in 3 of the last 4 races. Last fall, Gase finished 37th. In summer 2020 when the attrition rate was sky high, he finished 29th. In 2019, Gase had a pair of 38th place finishes.
Matt Mills (Starting 39th) Matt Mills will be making his Cup series debut at Kansas driving the #55 BJ McLeod entry. Mills currently has a 28.8 average finish in the Xfinity Series this year, so there’s an early warning sign about the level of competitive effort likely being put in place this weekend. On Sunday, if Mills finishes better than the mid 30’s, then I would consider it a win.
