Kansas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Driver Breakdowns
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Kansas in the “Buschy McBusch Race 400.” No joke, that is the real race name! Kansas is a progressive banking 1.5 mile track where drivers can race from the top of the track, to the bottom. Tire wear at Kansas is low to minimal, so I would highly suggest you study recent races on this sub-track type. “Last four races at high-speed intermediate tracks where tire wear is low to minimal” is referenced many times below and that race subset includes Las Vegas 2021, Texas #2 2020, Kansas #2 2020 and Las Vegas #2 2020.
At Kansas, you’ll often see the same names finish up front. Over the last three combined Kansas races, EIGHT drivers have an average finish between 5.0 to 8.3 (Harvick, Hamlin, Truex, Kyle Busch, Elliott, Bowman, Byron and Keselowski).
In terms of variables I want in a driver at Kansas I want ….
- A driver who’s run well and displayed speed in recent races at high-speed intermediate tracks where tire wear is low to minimal (Total Speed Rankings over the last four races at 1.5 mile tracks where tire wear is low to minimal).
- A driver with a good Kansas track history. As you read above, over the last three Kansas races eight drivers have an average finish between 5.0 to 8.3.
- A driver who’s been clicking off good results in 2021
- A driver who’s starting relatively near the front (8 of the top 9 finishers last fall started in the top ten). HERE’s the STARTING LINEUP FOR KANSAS.
This year at ifantasyrace.com we’re committed to writing about the full field every week. In previous weeks, “Super Low-Tier” drivers were in this post. Now they have their own separate post, so check it out “Super Low Tier- Kansas!”
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Kansas Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
1) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 1st)
Kansas Fantasy Spin – Polesitter, Brad Keselowski is a recent winner at Kansas who’s primed to have a strong showing. At Kansas, Keselowski’s thrived and in 3 of the last 4 races he’s finished in the top 4. No other driver has three top fives over the last four races here. This spring at Las Vegas which is by far the most similar track visited in 2021, Keselowski had the best Total Speed Ranking and finished 2nd. When you combine Keselowski’s Kansas track record along with his strong performance at Las Vegas, I see no reason why he shouldn’t be fast. On Sunday, look for Keselowski to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Kansas Track History – Brad Keselowski is without question one of the best at Kansas. Keselowski swept the top 4 last year, and in 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished in the top six. Last fall, Keselowski was a consistent front runner. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, had a 5.1 average running position, finished 4th overall and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In summer 2020, Keselowski had a great race. He finished 2nd overall, finished 5th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 30 laps and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2019, Keselowski caved under playoff pressure and finished a clunker 19th. In the race he had a 12.5 average running position and had problems late. In spring 2019, Keselowski had a strong showing and late in the race he reeled in Alex Bowman for the lead and ultimately the win. In addition to finishing first, Keselowski earned the 5th best driver rating, led 14 laps and had a 9th place average running position.
DraftKings $9,700/ FanDuel $12,500
2) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 15th)
Kansas Fantasy Spin – At Kansas, look for Martin Truex Jr. to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. He’s performed at an elite level at Kansas, and in recent races at similar tracks he’s been clicking off good results. Over the last four combined races at intermediate tracks where tire wear is low to minimal, Truex has a 5.25 average finish and his average speed ranking is the 4th best. Las Vegas is the most similar track visited this year, and at that venue he finished 6th.
Kansas Track History – Martin Truex Jr. is an elite performer at Kansas. Over the last eight Kansas races, Truex has two wins, 5 top fives and has only once finished lower than 9th. Last fall, Truex finished 8th in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2, finished 9th overall and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. In summer 2020, Truex was a contender. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2, led 44 laps, finished 3rd overall, ranked as the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2019, Truex ran well. He finished 6th overall, finished 4th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led 33 laps, had a 5.6 average running position and his driver rating ranked as the 2nd best. In terms of speed analytics, Truex had the best Green Flag Average Speed and ranked as the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2019, Truex had an off-race and his team missed the setup. In the event he finished 19th and had a 19th place average running position. In the four Kansas races prior to that, Truex had a 2.3 average finish.
DraftKings $10,000/ FanDuel $13,000
3) Kyle Larson (Starting – 32nd)
Kansas Fantasy Spin – At Kansas, Kyle Larson will be a factor despite starting 32nd. He’s come close to victory lane in the past, and now that he’s in the most competitive situation of his career expectations should be extremely high. This year at 1.5 mile tracks, Larson has been the premiere performer. Over the combined races at 1.5 mile tracks, Larson has a 2.3 average finish, a 3.2 average running position and he’s averaged leading 125.7 laps per race. Las Vegas is the most similar of the three and at that venue he finished 1st, and led 103 laps. On Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Kansas Track History – Kansas has been a great track for Kyle Larson and he’s been in contention to win a couple of races here in the past. In 2020, Larson missed both races, but over his last four Kansas starts he has a 7.3 average finish and an 8.5 average running position. In fall 2019 in his most recent race, Larson led 60 of the first 76 laps, but finished 14th. I’ll note, Larson was involved in a caution after Joey Gase got into him while he was running around 7th on lap 116, and then with 18 to go before late cautions came out in mass he was running in 5th. In spring 2019, Larson finished 8th and earned the 10th best driver rating. In fall 2018, Larson started in the rear of the field in a backup car, but raced his way up to a 3rd place finish. Additionally, he finished 6th in Stage #2, had a 9th place average running position and earned the 6th best driver rating. In spring 2018, Larson was the class of the field, but finished a misleading 4th. In the race he started in the rear of the field, led the most laps (101), earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position, finished 5th in Stage #1 and won Stage #2. Before late cautions came out, Larson was driving away from the field. Him finishing 4th is extremely impressive when you consider he wrecked while running in 3rd with 20 laps to go which dropped him back to the teens. In fall 2017, Larson’s engine blew up while he was running in 3rd. In spring 2017 he finished 6th.
DraftKings $11,300/ FanDuel $13,500
