NASCAR Power Rankings Week 10 – Kansas
Talladega definitely lived up to the hype as an exciting and unpredictable race. Logano ended his day upside down in a scene that looked like it was made in Hollywood. DiBenedetto and Wallace got their first career stage wins. Keselowski led just one lap but it was good enough to secure the race win.
We move on to Kansas, which is basically a cookie cutter 1.5 mile track. It has 17-20 degree progressive banking in the corners, so there is some reward for running the high line. There is fairly low tire wear here, which makes track position absolutely vital. There is not much green flag passing which can make for some fairly boring racing. Hopefully that’s not the case this weekend. With Kansas being a traditional mile and a half track, we are unlikely to see many surprises on Sunday. Usually the cream rises to the top and the best teams finish up front. Let’s see who we should be on the lookout for this weekend.
1) (Last week 1, Avg Finish 7.0) Denny Hamlin – Denny finally had a poor result finishing 32nd at Talladega. It took a wreck and two pit road speeding penalties to really set him back. The good news is he has won two of the last three races at Kansas so he will likely be the favorite heading into this weekend. He will have plenty of ground to make up early, as the #11 car will start 20th.
2) (4, 10.3) William Byron – Byron has now finished in the Top 8 for eight consecutive races. With Hamlin’s misfortunes at Talladega, Byron now has the best average finish over that span. He has also finished in the Top 10 the last three races at Kansas after struggling early in his career.
3) (2, 11.2) Martin Truex Jr. – The JGR cars dominate at Kansas, and Truex is no exception. He has finished Top 10 his last three races here and seven of the last eight, including two wins. I fully expect him to be at the front of the pack Sunday.
4) (6, 10.3) Kevin Harvick – Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Kevin Harvick finished in the Top 10 last race. He now has a Top 10 in seven of this year’s ten races. He has three consecutive Top 10s at Kansas including finishing 4th and 2nd last season.
5) (3, 11.4) Joey Logano – Logano wrecked out of last summers race while running in the Top 10, but he came back to win the playoff race in the fall. He should be on a mission this weekend after ending his day upside down at Talladega and lashing out at NASCAR’s superspeedway package.
6) (13, 12.7) Brad Keselowski – Brad all but locked in his playoff spot with a win at Talladega. Let’s see if he can back that up with a good run at a track where he’s seen success. He finished 4th and 2nd last year and won a race the year before that.
7) (7, 12.9) Ryan Blaney – Blaney has strung together seven consecutive Top 11 finishes after finishing 15th or worse in the first three races of the season. He has run really well at Kansas but has a knack for getting overly aggressive in the high line and getting into the wall. He has the 8th best driver rating over the last three years but only the 24th best average finish. If he can stay out of the wall, he can contend for the win.
8) (5, 13.6) Christopher Bell – Bell finished 10th at Kansas last fall in the #95 which is a very impressive accomplishment. As good as the JGR cars were here last year, I’m definitely planning to bet on Bell since he will likely have the longest odds of the group. Erik Jones had five Top 10s in six races in this car, so I expect Bell to do the same.
9) (8, 14.6) Kyle Larson – Larson’s car blew up on the opening laps at Talladega. The broadcast reported that the #5 team forgot to remove a piece of sheet metal from the engine that is used during transportation. That is my new favorite idiotic move by a team, taking down Truex’s blunder in the 2019 Championship. Larson has an average finish of 2.4 on the mile and a half tracks this year, so he should rebound nicely at Kansas. However, he has his work cut out for him, starting behind BJ McLeod in 32nd.
10) (9, 14.1) Chase Elliott – The reigning Champion has been very underwhelming on the mile and a half tracks this year. He blew his engine in Atlanta, resulting in a disappointing 38th place finish. In Miami and Vegas he finished 14th and 13th respectively. This is even more head scratching when you see his three teammates have the best total speed on 1.5 mile tracks this year. Can Elliott break his 1.5 mile slump on Sunday?
11) (10, 14.5) Kyle Busch – Kyle has had a bit of a disappointing season, especially by his standards. However, he has run very well at the 1.5 milers, averaging a 6.0 finish across the three races. Rowdy has only finished outside the Top 11 at Kansas one time since 2014, so I expect him to run in the Top 10 this weekend. The big question for me is will he finally be able to win another Trucks race? He has been beaten by young JHN twice already this year.
12) (14, 17.9) Matt DiBenedetto – Matty D almost won a race for about the 10th time in his career. Unfortunately he couldn’t get it done and he has still not seen victory lane in the Cup Series. His Dickies Mustang should be fast on Sunday, I mean look at that thing! DiBenedetto has never finished in the Top 10 at Kansas in 12 attempts. Sunday may be his best opportunity to break that streak.
13) (15, 13.7) Austin Dillon – Dillon has back-to-back Top 10s after finishing 8th at Talladega. Now we have a few 1.5 mile tracks coming up, where RCR cars seem to thrive. Look for both Dillon and his teammate, Tyler Reddick, to have good races on Sunday. Reddick just missed the cut this week, and has three Top 10s in his last four races.
14) (11, 15.1) Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – No surprise that Ricky wrecked his way out of Talladega due to overaggressive racing. He was shoving his way towards the front of the pack at the end of Stage 1 when he got into Hamlin, Logano ended upside down, and the rest is history. That’s his first finish this year outside the Top 18. He won’t be excited heading to the Sunflower State this weekend. He has never finished in the Top 10 in 16 races here. Yikes.
15) (12, 19.2) Alex Bowman – Bowman followed up his win at Richmond with a 38th place finish on his birthday at Talladega. He now has finishes of 22nd or worse in three of his last four races. Not exactly how you want to build momentum after securing a playoff bid. He will happily click his heels together three times to head back to Kansas where he’s finished in the Top 10 in four of his last five races.
