Kansas Buschy McBusch 400 Betting Preview
As I said in my Power Rankings, Kansas is as cookie cutter as it gets for a 1.5 mile track. If you’re a fan of NASCAR, you are well aware that most of the races are contested on the 1.5 milers, making them the bread and butter of the series. There can be lots of surprises on superspeedways, road courses, and even short tracks. But when it comes to the mile and a half tracks, it’s typically the best teams and best drivers finishing out front.
So how do we make money when we know a chalky driver will probably win? Well there is always value somewhere, so let’s go digging. I have a few middle tier drivers on top teams that I like to win the race given their odds. I also think there is some value in taking some second tier guys to finish in the Top 10. Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter.
Hendrick (+200 to Win, 2 units) – If you are not familiar, the Hendrick drivers are #5 Larson, #9 Elliott, #24 Byron, and #48 Bowman. This one is pretty simple to me. The top three drivers in terms of green flag speed on 1.5 mile tracks this year are Hendrick cars. The other Hendrick driver is Chase Elliott, who is the reigning Cup Champion and also has the best average finish over the last three years at Kansas. I considered a bet on Larson at 7-1 early in the week, but before I could pull the trigger, those odds were long gone. He is now between +450 and +550 at my shops. I would much rather group in all his teammates at about half those odds. Let’s ride with HMS for this week’s best bet!
Trucks Free Play: John Hunter Nemechek (+475 to Win, 1u and +140 Top 3, 2u) – JHN has the talent to be a Cup driver, and a good one at that. If you look at some of the results he posted last year in the Cup #38 car, it’s very impressive. Especially considering what Alfredo is doing in the #38 this year. JHN didn’t get a competitive ride in the offseason so he decided to drop all the way down to the Trucks Series (3rd tier series in NASCAR) in order to be in top equipment. He is now driving the #4 truck for Kyle Busch Motorsports. His odds are longer this week since his boss, Kyle Busch, is racing as well. Kyle usually goes off at roughly -120 odds when he races in the Truck Series. In years past, that bet has been almost free money. Not this year as JHN has already beat KFB twice in three tries. JHN also has four Top 3’s on the season in six races. The two races he finished outside the Top 3 were Daytona and Bristol Dirt, both crapshoots. Unless JHN gets into a wreck, he is a near guarantee to finish Top 3.
