On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Dover! “The Monster Mile” is a physically demanding track where mayhem is always lurking. Drivers can’t take a lap off, and need to be on the wheel non-stop if they want to make speed around this unique 1.0 concrete mile oval.

In terms of variables I want in a fantasy pick at Dover I want ….

1. A driver with a great track record. Some drivers clearly have a knack and know how to navigate “The Monster Mile.”
2. A driver who’s been showing up with speed on a weekly basis in 2021. In particular, I really want a driver who’s been fast at intermediate tracks.
3. A driver who’s starting relatively near the front. Over the last seven Dover races, four of them have been won from 2nd, and five of them have been won from a top ten starting position. I’ll note, Dover hasn’t been won from the pole since fall 2010, but I think that could easily change on Sunday. Here’s the Dover Starting Lineup.

This year at ifantasyrace.com we’re committed to writing about the full field every week. Find out what Super Low Tier drivers are the best of the best in …..  “The Super Low Tier – Dover!”

NOTE: CHASE ELLIOTT will start in the rear of the field. His finish range will remain the same, but I lowered his dominator potential down to low. 

Dover Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

1) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 1st)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Polesitter, Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at Dover who’ll be a favorite. Dover is Truex’s home track, and he’s consistently performed at an elite level. Over the last four races at “The Monster Mile”, Truex’s finishes are 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 1st. When you extend out his track history, Truex has finished in the top four in 8 of the last 9 races. One attribute you have to love about Truex is his speed on the track. Over the last six races heading into the weekend, Truex has the best Total Speed Ranking and has ranked #1 in 3 of the 6 races. On Sunday, look for Truex to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Dover Track History – Martin Truex has thrived at Dover and he’s consistently been clicking off good finishes. Over the last four Dover races, Truex has finished in the top 2 every race, has a 1.8 average finish, the best driver rating among drivers who competed in every race and he’s averaged leading 55.8 laps per race. In 2020, Truex came home with a pair of 2nd’s. Last year in race #2, Truex had a stellar showing from the 19th place starting position. In the race, Truex finished 4th in Stage #2, 2nd overall and was tied for having the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Over the course of the race, the #19 got faster. His speed over the segments were 13th, 6th, 4th and then in the final segment he had the 2nd fastest car on the track. In race #1 last year, Truex had a great performance. In the race he started 3rd, led 88 laps, had a 3.8 average running position, finished 5th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2 and then finished 2nd overall. In terms of speed analytics, Truex had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In fall 2019, Truex finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, ranked as the “Fastest Driver Late In A Run” and finished 2nd overall. That said, he might’ve potentially had the best car. Just after he won Stage #2, he had a slow pit stop that dropped him back to 5th. In spring 2019, Truex had the field covered. He started in the rear of the field, but quickly charged his way up through the running order. When Stage #2 ended, he was the leader. When the checkered flag waved he finished 1st, earned the best driver rating, ranked as the “Fastest Driver Late In A Run” and led 132 laps. In fall 2018, Truex had his worst Dover race in a long time and finished 15th. I’ll note that’s an asterisk mark finish. During a debris caution with 60 laps to go while he was running in 3rd he was caught speeding on pit road. In spring 2018, Truex had a phenomenal car. He finished 4th, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. In Stage #1 he made an unexpected pit stop, but in Stage #2 he finished 7th. In the three Dover races prior to that he had results of 4th, 3rd and 1st.
DraftKings $11,900 / FanDuel $14,000

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2) Kyle Larson (Starting – 4th)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson will be tough to beat at Dover. It’s been a stellar venue for him and in fall 2019 when he most recently raced here, Larson put on a display of domination and raced his way to victory lane. Throughout his career, Larson has performed at an elite level at “The Monster Mile.” He’s finished in the top five 50% of the time, in the top ten 75% of the time and he’s only once finished outside the top 12. Over his last six combined Dover races, Larson has a stellar 5.5 average finish. One attribute I like about Larson is how strong he’s been at intermediate tracks this year. In 2021 over the five combined races held on this track type, Larson’s average Total Speed Ranking is a series best 2.6. On Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top five and be a factor to win.
Dover Track History – Kyle Larson has been elite at Dover. In fall 2019 when Larson most recently raced here, he crushed the competition and easily raced his way to victory lane. In that race, Larson led 154 laps, finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2 and ranked as the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Late in that race he hit the after burners and led 151 of the final 157 laps. In spring 2019, Larson had a great performance. In that event he finished 4th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2 and then finished 3rd overall. In 2018, Larson had finishes of 10th and 12th. In 2017, Larson swept the top five with finishes of 2nd and 5th.
DraftKings $ 11,500 / FanDuel $13,500

Further Recommended Reading – Dover Projected Finish Ranges

3) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 2nd)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Dover was once arguably Denny Hamlin’s worst track, now it ranks among his best. At “The Monster Mile” Hamlin raced his way to victory lane in race #1 last year, and in 7 of the last 10 races he’s finished in the top ten. In the three races Hamlin failed to finish in the top ten, he had an asterisk mark result. This year on the track, Hamlin’s been a standout performer. Hamlin has the best “Season To Date Total Speed Ranking“, and in 9 of the 12 races he’s finished in the top 6. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Dover Track History – Denny Hamlin has been strong at Dover and he’s consistently performed at a high-level. Last year in race #2, Hamlin was a top five contender but finished a misleading 19th. In the race, Hamlin started 20th, finished 3rd in Stage #2 and was running in 3rd on lap 226 when he had to make an unexpected pit stop for a loose wheel which led to his misleading result. In terms of speed, Hamlin was tied for having the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In race #1 last year, Hamlin had the field covered and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 2.5 average running position, led 115 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In fall 2019, Hamlin had a great performance from the pole. In the race he won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 218 laps and finished 5th. In terms of speed late in a run, Hamlin ranked as the 5th best. In spring 2019, Hamlin’s car was never to his liking, and he also had a minor spin. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 21st, earned the 21st best driver rating and had a 19th place average running position. In 5 of the 6 Dover races prior to that, Hamlin finished between 2nd to 9th.
DraftKings $11,100 / FanDuel $13,000