The Super Low Tier – COTA
James Davison – At COTA, I think there’s a good chance James Davison will be the best of the tier. Davison comes from a road course racing background, and he was also the top “Super Low Tier” performer at the Daytona Road Course in February. Earlier this year at Daytona, Davison finished 23rd (best of the tier), had a 27.7 average running position (best of the tier) and had the 30th best Total Speed Ranking (best of the tier). In 2020 on this track type, Davison finished 29th at the Charlotte Roval and 30th at the Daytona Road Course. On Sunday, I think he’s realistically a mid to high-twenties driver.
Justin Haley – At COTA, Justin Haley will be one of the top “Super Low Tier” drivers. He fields the fastest car of the tier on a weekly basis, and earlier this year at the Daytona Road Course he finished 24th which was the 2nd best of the tier. Additionally from the race earlier this year, Haley had a 29.7 average running position and the 33rd best Total Speed Ranking. Haley has no other Cup starts at road courses on his resume. On Sunday, I think he’ll likely finish around the high-twenties.
Kyle Tilley – Kyle Tilley is a road course ringer who’s being brought in to race at COTA. Tilley is an accomplished road course racer who’s the reigning Rolex 24 champion, but he’ll be driving the #78 which is typically driven by BJ McLeod, so keep your expectations low. At the Daytona Road Course earlier this year, the #78 was driven by a Scott Heckert who’s also a road course ringer and he finished 28th, but take note he had a 34.4 average running position and the 38th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, among “Super Low Tier” drivers in this post, the #78 car ranks as the 2nd fastest over the last six races behind Justin Haley. On Sunday, I think Tilley’s fantasy ceiling is likely a high-twenties finish.
Quin Houff – Earlier this year at the Daytona Road Course, nobody had a shorter race then Quin Houff. He completed a grand total of 3 laps, and then his race was over due to an engine failure. Last year on this track type, Houff finished 33rd at the Daytona Road Course and then 28th at the Charlotte Roval. In the Cup series, Houff has no other starts on this track type on his resume. In the last two races heading into the weekend, Houff has results of 29th (Dover) and 30th (Darlington). On Sunday, I think Houff’s a low 30’s driver who might be able to finish marginally better thanks to attrition.
Cody Ware – Cody Ware might prove to be one of the better “Super Low Tier” drivers on Sunday. I’m basing that off his performance at the Daytona Road Course earlier this year. In February at Daytona, Ware finished 25th, had a 29.5 average running position and had the 35th best Total Speed Ranking. Back in 2019, Ware made starts at Watkins Glen and Sonoma, but his results of 33rd and 36th aren’t exactly anything to get excited about.
Garrett Smithley – Garrett Smithley has three starts on his Cup road course racing resume, but I’m only going to view his start this year at the Daytona Road Course as relevant. In February at Daytona, Smithley finished 27th, had a 33.5 average running position and had the 37th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2020 at road courses, Smithley had a pair of 36th place results with his DNF’s listed as “Battery” and “Axle.” On Sunday, I think Smithley will likely be a low to mid-thirties driver.
Josh Bilicki – At road courses, Josh Bilicki is a perfect 8 for 8 at finishing in the 30’s. That’s a trend I’ll believe in and think he’ll extend. Earlier this year at the Daytona Road Course, Josh Bilicki’s race was cut short by “brake” problems which led to his 36th place finish. In the race, Bilicki’s Total Speed Ranking was a race worst 39th.
