On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Circuit Of The Americas (COTA) for the first time! Also on Sunday, there’s a very real chance NASCAR will be racing in the rain. COTA is a 20 turn, 3.41  mile road course that is extremely technical. It has a wide variety of turns and has been described as a mix between Sonoma and Watkins Glen.

If it does rain on Sunday, I think the main impact will be things will look super wild at first, but then eventually things will calm down as drivers adapt and get into their groove.

On Sunday, NASCAR will hold qualifying at 11 AM! Right after qualifying is complete, a NEW post will go up called “FINAL RANKINGS” which will be a simple post adding starting position into rankings. Other posts will also be completed and updated as needed following qualifying.

In terms of variables I want in a fantasy pick at Circuit Of Americas I want ….

1. A proven road course racer. Since there’s no track history for COTA, I want somebody who has proven to be successful on this track type. (Road course loop data box scores and speed stats since 2019).
2. I want a driver who’s showing up with speed every week (Total Speed Rankings Momentum).
3. A driver who looked respectable in practice. (Practice Notes/ Practice Speeds)
4. A driver who’s starting reasonably close to the front. Of course we won’t know this until its crunch time.

This year at ifantasyrace.com we’re committed to writing about the full field every week. Find out what Super Low Tier drivers are the best of the best in …..  “The Super Low Tier – COTA!”

COTA Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

1) Chase Elliott
COTA Fantasy Spin – Chase Elliott is a super-elite performer at road courses who’ll be a favorite at COTA. Since 2018 on this track type minus this years race at the Daytona Road Course where he was poised to win until the “Rain Caution”, and 2019 at Sonoma where his engine blew up while running in the top five, Elliott has 5 wins and a 2.1 average finish! When you add in the fact Elliott tested at COTA earlier this year, it’s almost unfair to the field. In practice, Elliott was fast and ended the session 5th on the speed chart. On Sunday, look for Elliott to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Road Course Racing Prowess – Chase Elliott has become the “Driver to beat” at road courses and if the “Rain Caution” didn’t come out at the Daytona Road Course earlier this year, Elliott would be entering the weekend with five straight wins on this track type. Over those last five races on this track type, Elliott has four wins and in every race he led, or was tied for leading the most laps. “Performance Wise” on this track type, the last time Elliott wasn’t top 6 good you need to go all the way back to Watkins Glen in 2017. Earlier this year at the Daytona Road Course, Elliott led 44 laps, was the fastest driver on the track over the first three segments and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Elliott was the leader at the time of the “Rain Manipulation” caution (16 to go), but at that time he pitted which put him in traffic back to around 10th. Elliott was up to 5th with 6 laps to go, but then he was spun out which led to his 21st place finish. In 2020 on this track type, Elliott pulled out the broom and won both races. Watkins Glen hasn’t been visited since 2019, but currently Elliott has back to back wins there. At Sonoma when it was last visited in 2019, Elliott’s engine blew up in the last Stage while he was running in the top five. In the two races prior to that, Elliott had results of 4th and 8th.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $14,500

2) Martin Truex Jr. 
COTA Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite road course racer who’ll be tough to beat at COTA. Truex has thrived at these venues, and in recent years he’s been Elliott’s main competition. Truex doesn’t have the wins of Elliott in recent races on this track type which have been “Roval” heavy (last four races), but I think Truex has a slight edge over Elliott at “Traditional” road courses such as Sonoma and Watkins Glen. I think “Traditional” venues will have more correlation to COTA then “Rovals.” One advantage Truex has on much of the field is that he tested at COTA earlier this year. In practice, Truex didn’t show much (23rd), but I’m largely interpreting that as him not pushing his car in the rain. His teammates were quick, so I’m confident he’ll be fast when its time to race. On Sunday, look for Truex to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Road Course Racing Prowess – Martin Truex Jr. is a four-time road course winner who’s always strong on this track type. Since 2018 at road courses minus this years race at the Daytona Road Course (top 3 good, spun) and the Charlotte Roval in 2018 (spun out while leading in the last turn), Truex has 2 wins, a 3.3 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 7 every race. COTA is a very technical track, and the most technical road course of them all in my opinion is Sonoma. At that venue, Truex has absolutely dominated the last two races there easily racing his way to victory lane. Being fast over long runs separates the contenders from the pretenders on this track type, and since 2019 minus last years race at the Charlotte Roval (rain tires skewed things), Truex has speed rankings of 2,1,4,1,1 over long runs. Earlier this year at the Daytona Road Course, Truex was top three good but finished a misleading 12th after getting spun late. In the race, Truex started 19th, finished 7th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2 and was running in 3rd before the “Rain Caution.” In terms of speed analytics, Truex was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Last year at road courses, Truex had results of 3rd (Daytona RC) and 7th (Charlotte Roval).
DraftKings $10,600 / FanDuel $14,000

3) Kyle Larson
COTA Fantasy Spin – Look for Kyle Larson to have a strong showing at COTA. Larson has always been a quality option on this track type, but now that he’s in the #5, his level of performance is boosted to the next level. One attribute I like about Larson is that he’s a quick learner at road courses. He arguably had the best car in the first race at the Charlotte Roval (2018), and he was top five good earlier this year at the Daytona Road Course in his first race there. In practice, Kyle Larson looked great. He kept his car on the track and ended the session 3rd on the speed chart. On Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top ten and compete for a top five.
Road Course Racing Prowess – Earlier this year at the Daytona Road Course, Larson was impressive, but crashed with 8 laps to go while attempting a pass for 2nd which led to his asterisk mark 30th place finish. If Larson didn’t crash, there’s a good chance he would’ve won because he was the highest driver in the running order on fresh tires. Also from that race, Larson had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 8th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. With 16 laps to go before the “Rain Manipulation” caution came out he was running in 5th. Back in 2019 when Larson last raced on this track type he had results of 10th (Sonoma), 8th (Watkins Glen) and 13th (Charlotte Roval).
DraftKings $10,200 / FanDuel $12,000